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  #61  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2022, 4:06 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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The Irish ethnic community is estimated to be about 900,000. That's probably the post-war community, who are still second and third generation at most. Seems like the 19th century descendants who are still in London (many are not) has melted away and hard to track. I don't see how there's 2 million "missing" Irish, even if we add London's Jamaican community to the mix. This is more homeopathy than serious demography at this point.
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  #62  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2022, 1:02 PM
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You know ancestry doesn't have a set cut-off point right? People who still have their Irish surnames, or who can trace beyond the 1900s (which is easily done in the UK) are still allowed to claim.

I can keep posting this, and point out that sending the equivalent to 5% of the British population in one go, then more in waves, for near two centuries is going to equate to very large ancestry for one city, especially given that each woman will average 5 kids each time:


Last edited by muppet; Dec 26, 2022 at 1:20 PM.
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  #63  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2022, 2:44 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Of course people can claim, but there's no ancestry question on the UK census. People who tick the Irish box are mostly Irish immigrants. Later generations call themselves English or British.

Found some figures: In 1900, about 350,000 Londoners were of Irish ancestry (8% of the county of London).
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  #64  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2022, 8:49 PM
JMKeynes JMKeynes is offline
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I lived in London for many years. Its Jewish community is tiny compared to NY’s, but it’s probably the biggest “white ethnic” group in London. Here’s a Purim celebration.

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  #65  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2022, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Of course people can claim, but there's no ancestry question on the UK census. People who tick the Irish box are mostly Irish immigrants. Later generations call themselves English or British. .
Precisely. Ancestry would still work out higher regardless. For example:




^So that's 6 million who are illegible for an Irish passport should they want it, for having an Irish grandparent. Yet those whose lineage would stretch back way before the mid-20th Century- means even more can claim ancestry, should they want to. I would hazard the jump from 10% with a grandparent (and that wouldn't even be talking about the 19th Century waves) to 30% with someone down the line somewhere, is infinitely doable. And that's not even taking into account the traditional concentration into London, but the country at large.

In short the 10% figure only takes in the mid century onwards in terms of ancestry, and only for the average for the country. On those terms the Irish ancestry in the US would evaporate entirely.
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  #66  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 12:36 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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^So that's 6 million who are illegible for an Irish passport should they want it, for having an Irish grandparent.


There are 8 billion people on earth who are theoretically eligible for a Canadian passport, as long as they learn English or French and have the educational credentials. I guess the whole planet is more or less Canadian.

There are even countries that give passports in exchange for cash. I guess we're all Antiguan, at heart.
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  #67  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 12:42 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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75% of the population of England and Wales are "white British" or "white Irish."

It's mainly Irish immigrants that tick the Irish box, so they're numbers are small (507,000, 0.9%), so obviously the British-born of Irish descent just say they're "white British."

London is only 38% white British/Irish, about half the share of England and Wales. The majority of the population has origins outside the British Isles.

Last edited by Docere; Dec 27, 2022 at 7:24 AM.
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  #68  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 1:07 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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If 30% of Londoners have some Irish ancestry, that's roughly 75% of all white British/Irish (even accounting for the very small number of nonwhites with Irish ancestry) and over half of all whites. That's absurd.

In the Boston area maybe about a third of all whites are of Irish ancestry.
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  #69  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 1:36 PM
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that's not absurd at all, look at the figures, and the distribution map.

Just going by one or two generations alone (and not counting Irish passport holders) would hit 10% of the population even if evenly spread out. Going by more than 2 generations would hit way higher. Taking into account there's only 3 concentration points plus the high birthrates, even higher still.

Also bear in mind before the famine Ireland was the same nation and its population was half that of Britain's, with immigration both ways. Not a stretch that centuries of mixing results in very high ancestry in the 3 main areas of destination.
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  #70  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 2:13 PM
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Let's just take one single wave, the 727,326 Irish born that mostly arrived after the famine, and already took up 3% of the population. With the average 5 kids per woman then, they beget 1.818 million offspring for a total of 2.546 million Irish born / Irish ancestry after one generation. 2545641

This first generation (4 kids per woman) has 3.636m kids as a second generation -and lets be cruel and say only 60% of the original wave has survived or stuck around to become grandparents in their 40s and 50s. Your final tally is a little over 5.855 million (out of 38 million 40-50 years later), risen to 15% of the population within a lifetime.

The generation after (3 surviving kids per woman by the 1920s) will produce another 5.45m kids, (and lets say 70% of grandparents survive to see them) nearly doubling, but you're steady at about 18% now of the general population.

So that's from one single wave, hitting 15% of national population before even the 20th Century, despite concentrated in 3 metropoli.

Taking into account the successive waves after (not to mention before) the result will become much higher, especially in those cities. That's why the northern cities turns up with 75% today., as would the 'White British' in London, giving a final tally of about a third overall for the city.

Last edited by muppet; Dec 27, 2022 at 3:23 PM.
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  #71  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 2:13 PM
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If a British family moved to Ireland and the next generation moved back to England, were they ever Irish?
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  #72  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 3:05 PM
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It depends if they watched Father Ted in their time there
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  #73  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 4:21 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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I'm trying to make sense of your model here.

So all children survive to adulthood? The first cohort stays identical in size for 20 years and the deaths don't start kicking in for 40 years?

No emigration? Let's not forget a lot of Irish immigrants to Britain were there temporarily and went on to America. Britain had net emigration in the 19th century.
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  #74  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 4:31 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
If 30% of Londoners have some Irish ancestry, that's roughly 75% of all white British/Irish (even accounting for the very small number of nonwhites with Irish ancestry) and over half of all whites. That's absurd.

In the Boston area maybe about a third of all whites are of Irish ancestry.
But Boston has a ton of other white ethnicities besides Irish. It was never even remotely close to 100% ethnic Irish. It's not like London, with white populations that almost totally comprised of ethnic British and ethnic Irish.
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  #75  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 4:45 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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But Boston has a ton of other white ethnicities besides Irish. It was never even remotely close to 100% ethnic Irish. It's not like London, with white populations that almost totally comprised of ethnic British and ethnic Irish.
Right, but Irish specifically is much more common in Boston than in London.

Muppet is suggesting that 30% of Londoners have Irish ancestry, that would be over half of the white population.
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  #76  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 5:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
I'm trying to make sense of your model here.

So all children survive to adulthood? The first cohort stays identical in size for 20 years and the deaths don't start kicking in for 40 years?

No emigration? Let's not forget a lot of Irish immigrants to Britain were there temporarily and went on to America. Britain had net emigration in the 19th century.
Yes those are the surviving kids, based on average amount per woman. I kick start deaths from the age of their 40s -and Im quite brutal insofar as Im basing only 60% reaching that, 70% for the generation after.

Ah so now you're saying that the Irish who migrated to the UK, and who swelled the numbers to such a degree in a decade after the famine, were just on their way to the US (the opposite direction I may add)? Im sure some did turn about and go to the US, but hundreds of thousands, after a decade? Not many people stopping off on some roundabout trip to the New World happened to fill in a British Household Census form either. And Britain's population quadrupled in the 19th Century, 10.5 million > 41 million.


You're also forgetting the other waves before and after, all those calculations are based on only the one.

Last edited by muppet; Dec 27, 2022 at 6:25 PM.
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  #77  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 5:44 PM
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Right, but Irish specifically is much more common in Boston than in London.

Muppet is suggesting that 30% of Londoners have Irish ancestry, that would be over half of the white population.
What's not to get? - the largest source of migration for centuries into the one city, and the largest minority group right until 2001, arriving in successive waves may well weather over time through intermarriage, especially given the centuries. Given the painful politics (such as the famine, poverty, discrimination and war) many more would even hide or forget their ancestry. But it's still going to result in mixed ancestry whether they like it or not for the majority of inhabitants, multiple generations later.
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  #78  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 5:55 PM
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The Irish overwhelmingly moved to the New World, not to England. Over 8 million Irish are estimated to have moved to the New World from about 1820-1920.

The idea that the English people are really secretly almost all Irish is really bizarre. Who hid this migration? Why were all the names changed? How did the Anglican church survive? How did the monarchy survive? Irish Republicans have long loathed the monarchy. Everyone forgot to eat Irish stew, bacon & cabbage and colcannon? They forgot about Gaelic? The whole of western Ireland was Gaelic speaking until the late 19th century.
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  #79  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 5:59 PM
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census figures (again) - Irish born (not ancestry). Bear in mind 5.5 children per woman 1850, 4 by 1870s, 3 by 1910s



Also bear in mind having an Irish grandparent or even less, doesn't mean you're still holding shamrocks, eating er, colcannon, hating the monarchy or even Catholic. Your 3 other grandparents and 2 parents might have something else to add to your upbringing too, not to mention the country you and your parents have grown up in.


I hope people can see that one can be 75% English as well as 25% Irish to get ancestry/ passport right?

Right? I mean it's not like the Irish community in the States is still majority pureblooded after centuries, let alone the mid-20th. They may well be feasting on Guinness and bedecked in green on St Patrick's Day (as would their Brit counterparts on that one day of the year), but it doesn't mean they're still the Celtic DNA denizen from the 1800s.

Last edited by muppet; Dec 27, 2022 at 6:18 PM.
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  #80  
Old Posted Dec 27, 2022, 6:18 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Right, but Irish specifically is much more common in Boston than in London.

Muppet is suggesting that 30% of Londoners have Irish ancestry, that would be over half of the white population.
This doesn't seem crazy to me if the rate of mixing is high. If the Irish were 3% of London at one point, and each person with Irish ancestry always procreated with a person of British ancestry then it would take about 5 generations for half the people born to have some Irish ancestry. You could see that happen in a little over a human lifetime.
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