Manitoba Hydro

[Rutlander]

I’m sure they would have crossed paths. My dad was there for the whole build: carpentry foreman.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

It's recognized by the UN but it's reserve land and provincial parks that have been protected....Google my dude.

Missing my point. You disregard the UN's designation, build Bipole East anyway, then the UN doesn't recognize it anymore.

Then we move on with our day, with ~$2B of savings in our pocket, not caring what the UN does or does not recognize.

[bodaggin]

Uranium prices, 5yr chart. Again, for anyone suggesting Nuclear. Stay away. People forget Nuclear has variable fuel cost, water doesn't.

[borkborkbork]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Uranium prices, 5yr chart. Again, for anyone suggesting Nuclear. Stay away. People forget Nuclear has variable fuel cost, water doesn't.

Overall prices for nuclear energy are much less sensitive to variations in fuel costs, mostly because nuclear is capital intensive and the fuel is a smaller proportion of overall costs.

Water has hidden costs here. It's not the water, it's the costs (social, political, economic) and delays/complexities associated with transmission from wherever generation takes place. Think about the west side Bipole III route.

[bodaggin]

The cheapest baseload source is geothermal, $0.04/kwh LCOE. Alberta has 388gw of untapped geothermal potential. So they'll be switching to geo, whether they know it yet or not.

I found this temperature gradient map, buried in some 300 page gov't study from 2013. It's at 6.5km depth.

They say geothermal power needs 150-370C.

If you squint really closely right by Winnipeg, the green looks in the 200-225C range. I wonder if there's potential there, and/or how much. Right near Winnipeg = no transmission cost.

[bodaggin]

Dug up from the archives. The Master MB Hydro dam plan with 2012 LCOE estimates.

Clearly Keeyask was way wrong. But if these were their numbers, it explains why they chose it first. They THOUGHT it was the lowest LCOE.

It leaves a lot of questions. If Keeyask was this wrong, how wrong are the others? What executional decisions are causing such errors? Why is the ball being dropped? Can proper strategy bring down the construction costs of other dams in the pipeline?

[Highwayman]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Missing my point. You disregard the UN's designation, build Bipole East anyway, then the UN doesn't recognize it anymore.

Then we move on with our day, with ~$2B of savings in our pocket, not caring what the UN does or doekñs not recognize.

I am glad you are not running things. You'd have every that's protected ruined all for short term gain.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Highwayman

I am glad you are not running things. You'd have every that's protected ruined all for short term gain.

The UNESCO designation would never have been in jeopardy, if Bipole III was run on the east side. That is a silly myth. Over a decade ago, the UN made it clear that a power line would ahve no effect on designating it a UNESCO site.

Know what else is a UNESCO heritage site? Banff. The same Banff that has a town, freeway, pipelines, etc. and tons of other infrastructure cutting through the area.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Here's the energy mix and price of our nearest neighbors. IE: Our target customers. (Yes I know MB Hydro does SOME export, but it should be 10x higher).

Here's the reality: Coal will convert to Wind. It's the cheapest LCOE, fastest to deploy and most reliable. But wind needs "Baseload". To supply when the wind isn't blowing.

That's where MB Hydro comes in with pumped hydro storage. We store our neighbor's excess peak wind generation, and sell it back at a profit when their wind isn't blowing.

There's no other utility energy storage system on the planet that can compete with pumped-hydro. Not batteries, or any other energy snake-oil. Anyone can build wind generation. But no one can store it. Only us (and the Great Lakes).

Manitoba is sitting on a monopolized gold mine, and doesn't even realize it.

An interesting technology. Thanks for sharing. Before getting too excited, the 100% Renewable Energy Group of Australian National University (ANU) has developed an atlas showing worldwide locations of potential pumped hydro sites. BC, Alberta, Quebec and Newfoundland were the provinces with the most potential sites. Manitoba, NB and NS only have a very small handful of sites listed. https://re100.anu.edu.au/#share=g-e5...c265bcddb4c30b

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

An interesting technology. Thanks for sharing. Before getting too excited, the 100% Renewable Energy Group of Australian National University (ANU) has developed an atlas showing worldwide locations of potential pumped hydro sites. BC, Alberta, Quebec and Newfoundland were the provinces with the most potential sites. Manitoba, NB and NS only have a very small handful of sites listed. https://re100.anu.edu.au/#share=g-e5...c265bcddb4c30b

Brace yourself, you're about to get a wall of text telling you these experts are wrong lol.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

An interesting technology. Thanks for sharing. Before getting too excited, the 100% Renewable Energy Group of Australian National University (ANU) has developed an atlas showing worldwide locations of potential pumped hydro sites. BC, Alberta, Quebec and Newfoundland were the provinces with the most potential sites. Manitoba, NB and NS only have a very small handful of sites listed. https://re100.anu.edu.au/#share=g-e5...c265bcddb4c30b

Holy crap this is awesome! Thanks for sharing, bookmarked. This will keep me busy for a while. I wish the data was a bit easier to filter.

It appears they used Google Map elevation data to computer generate these sites, focusing on high head only (which is totally fine). Punch in parameters, spit out answer. That would explain why MB and great lakes were missed.

But an awesome top-level viewer of PSH competitors and proximities.

[bodaggin]

Sio Silica blocked today. Now watch the 10gw/yr RCT Solar Panel Factory pull out, because it heavily relied on that Silica for the panels.

For perspective, that RCT Solar Panel Factory is poised to be in the top 10 largest in the WORLD by production.

Billions in GDP and tax benefits. They aren't kidding, this is Manitoba's "oil".

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Sio Silica blocked today. Now watch the 10gw/yr RCT Solar Panel Factory pull out, because it heavily relied on that Silica for the panels.

For perspective, that RCT Solar Panel Factory is poised to be in the top 10 largest in the WORLD by production.

Billions in GDP and tax benefits. They aren't kidding, this is Manitoba's "oil".

Sio Silica had the very significant potential of poisoning the water supply for 100k + Manitobans, nevermind Minnesotans and North Dakotans on the same massive aquifer. This is a case of environmental assessments doing their job. If they can find a way that won't potentially ruin the environment, they can reapply.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

Sio Silica had the very significant potential of poisoning the water supply for 100k + Manitobans, nevermind Minnesotans and North Dakotans on the same massive aquifer. This is a case of environmental assessments doing their job. If they can find a way that won't potentially ruin the environment, they can reapply.

Ya I was scared of Silica too. It's nasty stuff, but only airborne apparently. Any research I can find says silica in drinking water actually has no known health effects. It's inhaling is the deadly one. (And the open pit silica was just approved haha)

In the least, drinking water is less than 5% of household water use. So even one considers silica harmful, it can easily be filtered out with RO. I don't think these conversations occurred enough.

I get the 100k people risk. It's a big swath. But given the above reality, at least let a few isolated test holes occur to prove safety risk one way or another in a contained way.

A video of the extraction technique is here. Actual real world model, not animation. It looks pretty clean honestly.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Ya I was scared of Silica too. It's nasty stuff, but only airborne apparently. Any research I can find says silica in drinking water actually has no known health effects. It's inhaling is the deadly one. (And the open pit silica was just approved haha)

In the least, drinking water is less than 5% of household water use. So even one considers silica harmful, it can easily be filtered out with RO. I don't think these conversations occurred enough.

I get the 100k people risk. It's a big swath. But given the above reality, at least let a few isolated test holes occur to prove safety risk one way or another in a contained way.

A video of the extraction technique is here. Actual real world model, not animation. It looks pretty clean honestly.

It was concerns of lead and arsenic being introduced from the local shale being broken down by the aeration of the water being pumped back in. They intended to drill through two aquifers to get to the silica, causing widespread mixing of a non potable and the potable aquifer at a rate where the ground can't naturally filter it.

They also intended having tailings ponds uphill from the Brokenhead, with any breaches being a serious threat to the Brokenhead River.

Local hydrologists and geologists had serious concerns with the plan given the geology and hydrology of the region, in this case the board agreed with them. One mistake could ruin the water supply with heavy metals.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

It was concerns of lead and arsenic being introduced from the local shale being broken down by the aeration of the water being pumped back in.

Interesting, I hadn't heard anything about metals. Will read up on this. Thanks for the mention.

[Justanothermember]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Interesting, I hadn't heard anything about metals. Will read up on this. Thanks for the mention.

At least you are showing a willingness to listen to us concern people of the area instead of writing us off as a bunch of backwards NIMBY bogans. Thank you.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

At least you are showing a willingness to listen to us concern people of the area instead of writing us off as a bunch of backwards NIMBY bogans. Thank you.

Just trying to follow data and common sense. Hey are you in that area? Do you or anyone else know what Sio was proposing for royalty payments to landowners?

[Justanothermember]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Just trying to follow data and common sense. Hey are you in that area? Do you or anyone else know what Sio was proposing for royalty payments to landowners?

I was born and raised just outside Dugald, but my family sold the house and land a few years ago and moved to the city, so we are no longer a part of this process. That will always be my home though and I often think of buying a parcel of land and moving back out to the 'homeland' so I still maintain a vested interest in what goes on out in that region.

SE Manitoba, including the shield area around the Ontario border, really is a beautiful and special corner of our planet. It genuinely is my favourite place in the world and I don't want to see it destroyed all in the name of corporate greed.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

I was born and raised just outside Dugald, but my family sold the house and land a few years ago and moved to the city, so we are no longer a part of this process. That will always be my home though and I often think of buying a parcel of land and moving back out to the 'homeland' so I still maintain a vested interest in what goes on out in that region.

I know the feeling, I have a similar attachment to RMNP.

One thing is for sure, this isn't over. Maybe for the meantime. But the claims still exist, the silica still exists, and it's apparently quite pure. Back to the drawing board on how to extract it safely, or wait until prices skyrocket.

I couldn't find a Silica spot price chart. Prices vary widely, but $50-80/ton was mentioned. I also saw something on ultra fine (which this seems to be?) for $200-800/ton. It's a very opaque pricing market so take these with a grain of silica.

Sio says the deposit is 13 billion tons and they were taking only 540 million of it. The largest current silica mine in the world I could find is 1.5 billion tons. So Sio's resource is 10x bigger? Holy fuck!

At $50/ton, that's a $650 Billion (with a B) total reserves. Over half a Trillion, with a T. Or $27B for the initial 540 million. Ya this definitely isn't going away lol Crazy.