Elon Musk's grand transportation vision

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

the promise of a traffic-free drive from the San Fernando Valley to Westwood/Hollywood/DTLA, etc., would incentivize people to buy Teslas in large numbers.

Musk has so far been unable to BUILD Teslas "in large numbers".

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

The LAST thing the world needs is more Elon Musk's. Everybody dreams big, what sets people apart is the ability to actually execute. Don't think there is no cost to Elon's whimsical failures; many billions of dollars have been spent by Tesla and the opportunity costs for such large amounts of money are enormous. How willing do you think people will be to invest more in infrastructure after losing tens of billions in this failed venture?

The scary thing to me is not that Tesla could fail but that SpaceX could be at risk if Musk can't deliver because the US government's manned space program has now been virtually turned over to the several private businesses with whom it is contracting including SpaceX. If SpaceX fails, the US could spend more years hitchhiking with the Russians into space and who knows how long they are going to be willing to let us as we pile sanctions on them.

[mousquet]

^ Yep, I heard this SpaceX thing was obviously widely subsidized by the feds, and benefited from the help of Nasa.

No wonder. It is simply impossible for a private corporation to develop a launcher in just a few years without the assistance of related public agencies and all the experience they've earned since the 1950s.

The idea is to take this most prestigious business to the private sector to boost it.
Some other private operators, the bosses of Amazon and of Virgin are interested too, already developing some projects of theirs in that matter.

The initiative is certainly positive, and adventurous entrepreneurs are always deserving of support anyway.
But for now, I suppose they would fail without any public subsidies.
This industry's just still way too costly to be backed by private interests alone.
They still need the support of the public authorities and some taxpayer money.

Now Tesla's just a fun little toy compared to Musk's ambitious space plans.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Musk has so far been unable to BUILD Teslas "in large numbers".

Yep. I live in Ohio and I've only see one once every few months. In 2017 I went to a 4th of July parade where a group of local Tesla owners had an entry and about 6 of them came down the road with American flags taped on. They got booed.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

If SpaceX fails, the US could spend more years hitchhiking with the Russians into space and who knows how long they are going to be willing to let us as we pile sanctions on them.

Musk wants you to think he's the only player in the game but many other companies build rockets. The NASA sun satellite that just went up was United Launch Alliance, I believe.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ight_companies

[SpawnOfVulcan]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Musk wants you to think he's the only player in the game but many other companies build rockets. The NASA sun satellite that just went up was United Launch Alliance, I believe.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ight_companies

Yea, ULA builds rockets in my hometown in North Alabama. They're developing a new engine for them in Huntsville to replace the ones they currently use that are produced in Russia. Sierra Nevada Corporation's Dream Chaser is capable of human transportation (looks like a mini Space Shuttle) and will use ULA's Atlas V rocket to enter space. The Dream Chaser is proposing landing at Huntsville International Airport and the airport is currently seeking FAA approval for it.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Yep. I live in Ohio and I've only see one once every few months. In 2017 I went to a 4th of July parade where a group of local Tesla owners had an entry and about 6 of them came down the road with American flags taped on. They got booed.

LMAO thats horrible. They got booed? Why?

Only 6? Come to California. They are about as common as a Camary

[mousquet]

^ There's no doubt AL already has some savoir-faire in this huge industry.
It's no accident if Airbus picked Mobile to establish their main US facility.

However, stuff like SpaceX is much newer, and I think they shouldn't be overlooked.
Let competitors have their chance, because things have been too slow for long in space conquest.

I can hear the Ohio guy too... Neil Armstrong set his toes on the Moon in 1969, but nothing much significant happened since then.

Frankly, we could be faster. And I'm not going to lie, Europe didn't do enough at all to help. They've just been obsessed with making their Ariane launchers profitable, but genuine dreams and pure conquests go far beyond mere profits.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

LMAO thats horrible. They got booed? Why?

Only 6? Come to California. They are about as common as a Camary

They got booed because the parade was in a gentrifying neighborhood and they were trying to present themselves as some sort of green entry into the parade like the organizers of the weekly farmer's market. Everyone knows these cars are very expensive and the people who buy them just want attention.

This was right when the model X came out and the guy was parading down the street with the rear doors open. I saw the same character driving the same car with the same back doors open a few weeks later, as if we live in the Caribbean or in Africa where they drive around with van doors open.

[mousquet]

Whatever, e-cars are good to spare the lungs of gentrified urban freaks, but their carbon footprint ain't so good.
It's no secret, materials to produce batteries still cause major harm to the environment. You got to extract, ship, then recycle them. It's a whole complicated affair, with a massive impact on the environment.

I came to think that in a real urban environment, personal vehicles are mainly a matter of man's pride, thus mostly useless.

Just ask yourself, who actually needs a car or a truck? In a city, businesses specialized in logistics, like those daily delivering your personal stuff, and your company's supply, which is quite significant.

In an orbital suburban environment, pretty much anyone cause mass transit is too expensive for lower density areas.
And in rural areas, all farmers, legitimately.
That's about it.

However, on long continental distances, rail and river could be better operated, at least here in France and all over Europe. So we wouldn't see so many huge trucks on highways.

Transporation is only utilitarian after all. It's not like your home. You basically don't need to show off your $100k Mercedes.
That's the truth anyone should come to.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Musk wants you to think he's the only player in the game but many other companies build rockets. The NASA sun satellite that just went up was United Launch Alliance, I believe.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ight_companies

That's why I referred to the "several private companies" however I do believe Musk's SpaceX is the principal behind the conveyance of humans into near earth orbit (think the space station) the US plans to use. Richard Branson seems mainly interested in suborbital flights for tourists and the others are building rockets for unmanned missions I believe.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

LMAO thats horrible. They got booed? Why?

Only 6? Come to California. They are about as common as a Camary

Yeah--in San Francisco they are not rare at all but they are still expensive (like so much here). There is actually a Tesla dealership 3 blocks up the street from me and, of course, the factory is across the Bay.

But Musk has been saying he would build 5000/month of the new model for the masses and still hasn't reached that figure reliably. And, of course, even that isn't much compared to what the big boys make (GM makes very approximately 500,000/month).

[Hatman]

They're currently building 6,200 Model 3's per week according to Bloomberg's VIN tracker:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
Add in 1,000 S and X vehicles per week each, and we get about 8,000 new Teslas built per week.

This thread has become a sadly amusing read in recent weeks. The thing about Elon Musk is that he is an engineer first, not a promoter or a businessman. When he comes up with something he thinks will be helpful, he tweets it out to the world and sees what sticks. Some examples of things that he hasn't followed up on include battery swapping stations for Teslas, man-rating the Falcon Heavy rocket for space tourism, building a larger version of the hyperloop big enough to fit a person vehicle into, etc.
These are not failures. These are the first iterations of ideas he thought he could develop further if they generated a good enough response. He does this a lot, and it is fun to see how his ideas change over time through many iterations.
Take his tunnels idea. First it was for cars, then it was going to be its own separate mass-transit system, and now he's working on building "loops" as additions to mass transit lines - and I doubt the changes will end there.
If you want to make sense of him, you just need to know his end goals:

Tunnels: transportation needs to become three-dimensional in order to avoid total gridlock. This is obvious, as every crowded area already does this in the forms of subways and other car tunnels. Whatever breakthroughs he is able to make in the form of building cheaper and faster tunnels will be a very welcome development, IMO.

Tesla: Transportation will eventually become entirely battery-electric anyway since fossil fuels are non-renewable and will run out. The idea that a battery is as polluting as a gas car has been disproved many times. Comparing all the materials required to produce batteries vs all the materials required to produce a gasoline engine and its exhaust systems already proves this before even considering all the fuel resources that need to be mined to keep the gas engine running. Furthermore, we gain nothing by delaying the conversion from gas to batteries - we are only killing ourselves by procrastinating the inevitable.

SpaceX: Other companies like ULA and Sierra Nevada exist, but none have yet been successful at being private, profitable companies. ULA in particular lacks any ambition beyond getting government contracts, and their consumption of all available money without producing any price-lowering innovations has been a huge roadblock to the US space and launch industry. SpaceX has finally broken that log jam, and they did it by pushing technology farther than anyone has before - even NASA. Even if it isn't SpaceX who is finally able to establish a permanent human presence in space, we will have SpaceX to thank for pioneering the techniques needed to do so.

So while we may have suggestions and feedback to give on Elon's transportation visions, let's do so constructively. He's on the right track, and he's shown in many examples that he absolutely can deliver proposals that most people originally considered to be ridiculous.

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by Hatman

The thing about Elon Musk is that he is an engineer first, not a promoter or a businessman.

Correct me if I'm wrong, he is originally a fast engineer specialized in computer sciences...
Which doesn't make an expert of him in physics, chemistry, or aeronautical engineering at all, huh.

But don't get me wrong, I deeply admire the guy too. Yes, he obviously turned into an efficient businessman.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by mousquet

Correct me if I'm wrong, he is originally a fast engineer specialized in computer sciences...
Which doesn't make an expert of him in physics, chemistry, or aeronautical engineering at all, huh.

But don't get me wrong, I deeply admire the guy too. Yes, he obviously turned into an efficient businessman.

Elon Musk isn't an engineer. His degrees are in physics and buisness.

[Hatman]

What is engineering besides applied physics?

You are what you do (successfully). It doesn't matter what you get a degree in. Many authors do not have degrees in English, for example.

"I don't spend my time pontificating about high-concept things; I spend my time solving engineering and manufacturing problems."

- Elon Musk
https://www.inc.com/larry-kim/50-inn...elon-musk.html

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Hatman

What is engineering besides applied physics?

You are what you do (successfully). It doesn't matter what you get a degree in. Many authors do not have degrees in English, for example.

Exactly, so Elon is a marketing guru and executive. He's certainly never designed anything. You don't honestly think the CEO is designing the cars and rockets do you?

Elon Musk's great talent is in getting people to invest billions of dollars in money losing endeavours.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Musk has so far been unable to BUILD Teslas "in large numbers".

i thought he hit is 5k/week mark. that's a lot of teslas. the new and current beef is that he "can't build the cheap one, it'll lose money."

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by cabasse

i thought he hit is 5k/week mark. that's a lot of teslas. the new and current beef is that he "can't build the cheap one, it'll lose money."

He has for one week here and there--he may build 6000 this week--but not consistently for several months in a row and he is still building them in a tent.

Anyway, here is another distraction he's involved in:

The concept proposals for redeveloping roughly two dozen buildings in the Presidio, buildings which are spread across 30 acres near the Golden Gate Bridge and comprise Fort Winfield Scott, will be presented and formally reviewed by the Presidio Trust’s Board of Directors on Thursday, September 27.

As we first reported last month, the Trust’s staff has already completed a preliminary review of the nine concepts and unofficially narrowed its recommended field to three: OpenAI which is backed by Sam Altman, Elon Musk and Kilroy Realty . . . .

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2...comment-338986

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by Hatman

What is engineering besides applied physics?

Nothing much. That's why we all had to swallow plenty of physics in college.

Originally Posted by Hatman

You are what you do (successfully).

That's what I said. He's been an internet freak thus far, hasn't he?
He owes his fortune to PayPal, certainly not Tesla yet.

And again, SpaceX would be US feds subsidized. But it is his real grand project and dream IMHO.