How Is Covid-19 Impacting Life in Your City?

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by 10023

Both estimates. They really have no idea.

except no. they do. obviously that isnt pulled out of thin air.

the maximum prevelance known is 15% in a city in germany that had a major outbreak last year where most were tested.

[10023]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

except no. they do. obviously that isnt pulled out of thin air.

the maximum prevelance known is 15% in a city in germany that had a major outbreak last year where most were tested.

The maximum known percentage is in a city where most were tested? You don’t say.

It’s also impossible to know how because there have been vaccines for almost a year. People who are vaccinated can still get infected with Covid (and have no or mild symptoms), but would be unlikely to take an antigen test and antibody testing wouldn’t distinguish between past infection and vaccination.

So no, it’s not out of “thin air”, but also no, they don’t know and it’s almost certainly an underestimate. Most sources even state “known cases”, which is by definition the bottom end of a possible range.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by 10023

The maximum known percentage is in a city where most were tested? You don’t say.

It’s also impossible to know how because there have been vaccines for almost a year. People who are vaccinated can still get infected with Covid (and have no or mild symptoms), but would be unlikely to take an antigen test and antibody testing wouldn’t distinguish between past infection and vaccination.

So no, it’s not out of “thin air”, but also no, they don’t know and it’s almost certainly an underestimate. Most sources even state “known cases”, which is by definition the bottom end of a possible range.

you can speculate all day long, but the known facts dont support any such thing.

all you can know is what you know.

and we already know not everyone will get covid.

as of today that is as close to an estimated ‘fact’ or however you want to frame it as there can be.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by dchan

The only place I see masks consistently worn outdoors is in Flushing and other Asian/Chinese communities. The Chinese are a bunch of hypochondriacs. Meanwhile, I went up to Catskill to visit the Thomas Cole Historic Site, and the workers didn't even wear masks at the diner. I had a lovely and shockingly inexpensive meal there.

I have Indian and Chinese patients. Less of the latter. More Korean.

Observed tendencies:

Most hypochondriac: Indian
Most prone to silly outdoor mask wearing: Chinese

Conclusion: mask wearing is more cultural to the East Asians than having anything to do with being a hypochondriac. Some people who refuse vaccines also tend to be hypochondriacs—so much so that their nitpicky views on health make them scared of the “unknown effects” of the vaccines.

I’m in downtown Chicago this weekend and mask compliance here is WAY higher here than in the burbs. At Whole Foods they even have a security guard going around to remind people to wear their mask—something unheard of in the burbs. Very authoritarian around here but also fascinating in how dumb it all is, because as soon as you go to the bars and restaurants, it’s literally jam packed to the gills with maskless people. What’s the point?

[suburbanite]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I have Indian and Chinese patients. Less of the latter. More Korean.

Observed tendencies:

Most hypochondriac: Indian
Most prone to silly outdoor mask wearing: Chinese

Conclusion: mask wearing is more cultural to the East Asians than having anything to do with being a hypochondriac. Some people who refuse vaccines also tend to be hypochondriacs—so much so that their nitpicky views on health make them scared of the “unknown effects” of the vaccines.

I’m in downtown Chicago this weekend and mask compliance here is WAY higher here than in the burbs. At Whole Foods they even have a security guard going around to remind people to wear their mask—something unheard of in the burbs. Very authoritarian around here but also fascinating in how dumb it all is, because as soon as you go to the bars and restaurants, it’s literally jam packed to the gills with maskless people. What’s the point?

Going to a supermarket and a bar can be mutually exclusive activities for a lot of people. It kind of makes sense that if you were going to maintain stricter regulations that you do it in an essential business, where the most Covid cautious can go do their shopping and head back home. The rest of us don't mind sitting maskless in a restaurant that checked vaccination status at the door. Do I think we should be basing public policy off of the impossible task of eliminating the chance that people get sick? Absolutely not. Do I mind wearing a mask to respect the most Covid cautious people in our society in the few places where we cross paths? Not at all.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by 10023

People who are vaccinated can still get infected with Covid (and have no or mild symptoms), but would be unlikely to take an antigen test and antibody testing wouldn’t distinguish between past infection and vaccination.

That's not true at all. I had never taken a single COVID test until after I got vaccinated. Now it seems like anytime someone around me gets sick they take a COVID test to rule it out.

[someone123]

Back around March the CDC estimated there were 6-24x more actual infections than reported cases, with a mean value of 11. This was highly speculative and the detection rate was probably lower earlier in the pandemic (though one has to wonder what effect vaccination is having now) but it's not far-fetched to imagine multiple times more real infections than cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Of course this also has a big impact on estimates of severity of illness or risk of death per infection.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by someone123

Back around March the CDC estimated there were 6-24x more actual infections than reported cases, with a mean value of 11. This was highly speculative and the detection rate was probably lower earlier in the pandemic (though one has to wonder what effect vaccination is having now) but it's not far-fetched to imagine multiple times more real infections than cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Of course this also has a big impact on estimates of severity of illness or risk of death per infection.

Early pandemic, there were definitely a LOT more actual cases than reported, and the reason for that was our lack of ability to do mass testing. At this stage, we're able to test so much that you can estimate the severity of a local outbreak through test positivity rate.

[chris08876]

Some data to play with: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Charts, data sets to download, linear/log, comparison, ect

[dktshb]

Hospitalizations apparently rising among vaccinated in US according to Fauci.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by dktshb

Hospitalizations apparently rising among vaccinated in US according to Fauci.

Yes, because:

1. If everyone were vaccinated, every hospitalization for covid would be someone who is vaccinated and we now have a pretty high rate of vaccination, at least among adults; and

2. Waning immunity in those vaccinated 6 months or more ago.

Get your boosters!

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

That's not true at all. I had never taken a single COVID test until after I got vaccinated. Now it seems like anytime someone around me gets sick they take a COVID test to rule it out.

Doesn't seem to me you are disagreeing with 10023. You are saying people with symptoms (people who are "sick") are getting tested which is what he said. Very few people who feel fine are getting tested unless mandated or unless they know they were exposed.

Personally, I bought 2 BiNaxNow home test kits for use if I get covid-like symptoms because I've already experienced how hard it can be to get a PCR test (when I was told by a hospital I had visited that I had been exposed there). I haven't used them yet . . . knock on wood.

[10023]

^ At least over here, testing requirements have mostly been lifted for vaccinated people (the exception being the day 2 test to return from abroad which as I’ve said is about £). For example my wife had to test 2x per week to go to her office through the spring, until she was fully vaccinated, and now she doesn’t have to. Now as you say, the only reason most people will take a Covid test is if they present symptoms, and since vaccinated people tend not to, it stands to reason that fewer people would test now.

[10023]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Going to a supermarket and a bar can be mutually exclusive activities for a lot of people. It kind of makes sense that if you were going to maintain stricter regulations that you do it in an essential business, where the most Covid cautious can go do their shopping and head back home. The rest of us don't mind sitting maskless in a restaurant that checked vaccination status at the door. Do I think we should be basing public policy off of the impossible task of eliminating the chance that people get sick? Absolutely not. Do I mind wearing a mask to respect the most Covid cautious people in our society in the few places where we cross paths? Not at all.

In Florida last winter, where masks were non-existent in bars and restaurants, pretty much everyone I saw was still wearing a mask in grocery stores or the mall for this reason.

Of course now, everyone has the ability to be vaccinated, and so masks should no longer be required in these places either. People can wear masks themselves if they really want to. But if you are so “Covid cautious” that you expect others around you to wear them when you’ve had all your shots, then just stay home and shop online.

[Yuri]

I don't understand why 10023 is so angry about masks. About lockdowns, I can appreciate even though I don't agree, but other people using masks?!?!

Here in São Paulo most people still use masks, but a growing number of people abandoned them on outdoors. However, there is zero hostility whatsoever between those groups.

I started to attend nightclubs and even there you see some people with masks while not drinking, despite Brazilian habit to kiss/hookup with at least 5 different people in one night.

People still feel more protected with them, it's normal after a pandemic that killed 612,000 people in this country.

[Yuri]

On other news, Brazil fell below 200 deaths daily (7 day moving average) for the first time since April 2020. 157.9 million (74% of population) got at least one dose and 129.1 million (60.5%) are fully vaccinated. An additional 14 million people (6.5%) already got their boost.

I checked on the Worldometers and meanwhile in the US there are still 950 deaths daily and it's getting close to reach the 800k mark.

I believe people who were vaccinated shouldn't worry about this issue anymore. Over 90% of deaths today are amongst people that refused to vaccinate. It's their problem now. The other 10% I assume it's from very elderly people or people with serious healthy issues.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by 10023

^ At least over here, testing requirements have mostly been lifted for vaccinated people (the exception being the day 2 test to return from abroad which as I’ve said is about £). For example my wife had to test 2x per week to go to her office through the spring, until she was fully vaccinated, and now she doesn’t have to. Now as you say, the only reason most people will take a Covid test is if they present symptoms, and since vaccinated people tend not to, it stands to reason that fewer people would test now.

I bolded the important part..... The amount of money being raked in for these different test kits has to be insane. It's not sustainable in any way as eventually people are going to start wanting to drop these testing requirements if it means you have to shell out $50-$100 and stick a swap into my brain just to get back into the country.

[benp]

Hospitalizations going up in my county, with 30-40% of the hospital patients fully vaccinated - that number has been steadily climbing. After peaking at over 500 in January, hospitalizations in WNY fell to only 15 by July but are now again over 300. More than half of the patients are under age 64. Last week included the 3rd and 4th highest number of positive test days as any time during the pandemic. Vaccination rate is 73% over age 12, 85% over age 64. County Exec recommended all adults get 2nd booster, as vaccine protection obviously waning over time. CDC came back with same recommendation a couple of days later.

No new mandates, and just this week border rules have changed to allow Canadians to enter and return without a repeat COVID test. Haven't noticed a big influx or Canadians yet, although I wasn't at the Bills game or the malls. At the Sabres-Maple Leafs game last weekend, though, the arena was less than half full of fans, although there were no restrictions on the number allowed in. All those entering had to show proof they had the vaccine, and no masks were required.

Most places at least half the people are wearing masks, and many businesses are mandating their employees to wear masks. Clinics, hospitals, and public transport all require masks. Many businesses do also.

There is an outbreak at my niece/nephew's elementary school, and some grades are having to attend remotely.

For my family in Miami, despite falling numbers, it is still a sh**show. Sister and her husband were both hospitalized a couple of weeks ago, and BIL died of COVID (both had other health issues). Only place they could have caught it was in a doctor's waiting room. The overworked travel nurse tending to my sister in the hospital was spouting government conspiracy nonsense about it being a deliberate plot to get people sick, and per my sister much of the staff neglected following COVID protocols. She is back home now, but a widow.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I don't understand why 10023 is so angry about masks. About lockdowns, I can appreciate even though I don't agree, but other people using masks?!?!

Here in São Paulo most people still use masks, but a growing number of people abandoned them on outdoors. However, there is zero hostility whatsoever between those groups.

I started to attend nightclubs and even there you see some people with masks while not drinking, despite Brazilian habit to kiss/hookup with at least 5 different people in one night.

People still feel more protected with them, it's normal after a pandemic that killed 612,000 people in this country.

I don’t really care about other people wearing masks. I think they look silly, but it doesn’t affect me. But I won’t go anywhere if I’m obligated to wear one if I can help it, and don’t wear one if it’s just suggested (or even “required” but without force of law, as on London’s public transportation).

[10023]

Originally Posted by benp

Hospitalizations going up in my county, with 30-40% of the hospital patients fully vaccinated - that number has been steadily climbing.

The bold part should be obvious and inevitable as vaccination rates rise. If we could ever achieve 100% vaccination (we will not, but for illustration), then obviously 100% of hospitalized Covid patients would be vaccinated. That doesn’t mean vaccines don’t work, though obviously they don’t work perfectly. Nothing ever will work perfectly, people will always get Covid, and some people will always die of Covid. It’s time to accept that.