Texas/Florida America's Future?

[Dariusb]

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...mericas-future
Do you agree or disagree? What are your thoughts?

[M II A II R II K]

Unless they become more flooded and less habitable to prompt a rust belt revival.

[iheartthed]

No longer are Texas and Florida only for escaping high taxes, onerous regulation and frigid weather. These states are the foundation of America's future. They may be raising the future presidents of this country, and they're housing both white- and blue-collar workers. Florida is on the map, and Texas – despite the problem it’s had keeping the lights on – is quickly becoming the nexus of industry and innovation.

Has this person been in a coma since 1970? Since 1960, count of presidents by home state:

TX - 3
CA - 2
NY - 1
IL - 1
GA - 1
AR - 1
MI - 1*
DE - 1

If anything, the South and West has been well overrepresented by presidents for most of the modern era.

*Gerald Ford was never elected president.

[llamaorama]

I agree that Texas and Florida are growing very fast at the expense of other places, but there are some other trends working against them:

1. The fastest growing cities for the past several decades have always been mid-sized metros in business friendly states that are still affordable for people wishing to buy a new house in the suburbs AND have major universities and a general atmosphere of being "nice" and just enough "coolness". In other words, Raleigh and Nashville. And Salt Lake City. Simply being cheap and in a red state isn't enough, Jackson is bleeding like Cleveland.

- This doesn't describe cities in Florida and Texas anymore. Austin is getting expensive and Florida has always been pricey relative to incomes. A lot of Florida is trashy and uncool and this is the mainstream sentiment. I think Texas and Florida will increasingly have to compete with these other popular locations and that will diminish the share of the relocation pie that they get.

2. COVID and Big Tech re-thinking the corporate office/ HQ moving tax break game. It used to be that a city like Dallas could dominate the competition for getting a Fortune 500 relocation and those companies would bring in 50,000 high paid office jobs at a new Plano campus. But FAANG and tech in general doesn't do that anymore. Instead they are building campuses in all in-demand cities, like Amazon splitting between NoVa and Nashville and NYC and Apple splitting between Austin and the Research Triangle. They also have smaller offices in smaller cities that people know about, like St. Louis's CORTEX, the Microsoft presence in Fargo, IBM in Baton Rouge, etc. The future might be where the biggest most prestigious companies only have mega campuses in a few places like Silicon Valley and Austin and then have offices pretty much everywhere there is also a workforce for them to tap into.

3. People might move less than they used to. As housing prices go up due to low interest rates and disparate incomes, people might have less incentive to relocate if they are already in a cheaper area. Obviously people in expensive areas like California will leave as will people in hard-up places like West Virginia, but middle class people in Kansas City may never have a rational motivation to leave. It used to be that if you advanced in your career you would have to move to a top-tier city, but now with remote work maybe that won't happen? A software developer from Indiana might get an entry level job out of college that's in an office at a local manufacturing company, but then when they are ready to move up instead of going to Austin they'd work remote and not bother with the higher costs of living.

4. Demographic changes. The US may never grow as fast as it did between 1950-2000 again. As the country gets grayer and has fewer kids and illegal immigration is slowed, the ability for cities and states to rocket in population slows too.

[bossabreezes]

Absolutely. I work in tech and my regions are the Southeast and West Coast. While the West Coast (California in specific) is very strong, it is not growing nearly as fast as Texas and Florida.

I am actually more surprised with how robust Florida is, at least in my industry it is absolutely booming at avalanche levels. Florida is big, big money.

People love to make fun of Florida but the reality is that it is much more than the stereotype that coastal elitists like to paint it with. I'm less familiar with Texas, but it's also doing really well. These two state will definitely pull away and above from the CAs and NYs of the country in a near future without question IMO.

[ChiSoxRox]

As someone who loves winter and hates hot weather, I'm definitely a demographic outlier. I am fortunate to be in a remote-work heavy field, and long term my ideal location climate-wise is Anchorage or around Seattle.

The thought of dealing with the climate in Texas, or worse Florida, makes me turn pale.

[TexasPlaya]

This country runs on super cycles.

Feels like both states are on the other side of boom states now. Still growing crazy but starting to mature a bit.

[goat314]

I'm originally fron St. Louis and current live in the Tampa Bay area. I'm a 32 year old single man with no children making $85k/year and I can definitely tell my money hasn't gone near as far as it used to a couple years back. The quality or life is also rapidly deteriorating with over development, inflated cost of living, surging crime, and overwhelmed infrastructure. A lot of people moved to Tampa to escape the hustle and bustle and about 5-10 years ago it seemed that it reached that perfect balance of quality of life and cost of living. Now with the unhindered and horribly planned growth it's becoming the new version of what many people were fleeing from in the first place, without the historic charm or cultural amenities.

[10023]

These places have also had the advantage of being younger (Florida’s large but self-funded retiree/snowbird population notwithstanding). As their populations age they may end up with the same demographic problem that has burdened states in the NE/Midwest with high costs for retirees, and consequent higher taxes and borrowing. Maybe not quite as bad as places like Illinois, if they’ve avoided the mistake of promising defined benefit pensions in the first place, but the graying of the population will still catch up with them.

The biggest problem for developed countries is really what to do about all the old people who can’t contribute but live for years and years post retirement, amplified by the health care burden from chronic lifestyle diseases stemming from obesity.

[IluvATX]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

As someone who loves winter and hates hot weather, I'm definitely a demographic outlier. I am fortunate to be in a remote-work heavy field, and long term my ideal location climate-wise is Anchorage or around Seattle.

The thought of dealing with the climate in Texas, or worse Florida, makes me turn pale.

Why would anyone want to live in Anchorage? Jk I currently live in Anchorage, but don’t see the appeal other than job related reasons.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by IluvATX

Why would anyone want to live in Anchorage? Jk I currently live in Anchorage, but don’t see the appeal other than job related reasons.

I really like the Chugach Mountains being right there, and I find the swings in daylight envigorating. I would rather have a cold winter than a hot summer, so overall I really like Alaska.

But that three hour flight to Seattle does get really tiring, which is why IMO long term my best fit would be the Pacific side of Washington. Still similar landscapes to Alaska, cooler climate, daylight variation and long sunsets, but without the daunting isolation.

[IluvATX]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

I really like the Chugach Mountains being right there, and I find the swings in daylight envigorating. I would rather have a cold winter than a hot summer, so overall I really like Alaska.

But that three hour flight to Seattle does get really tiring, which is why IMO long term my best fit would be the Pacific side of Washington. Still similar landscapes to Alaska, cooler climate, daylight variation and long sunsets, but without the daunting isolation.

I love hiking in the Chugach mountains. The daylight does get to me though. Seattle or Portland would be ideal locations for me, and accommodating for my job, but Texas is still my home.

[Centropolis]

florida and texas seem like the present, not the future, no?

i think of the inland northwest or northern rockies when i think about future areas of growth.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

florida and texas seem like the present, not the future, no?

i think of the inland northwest or northern rockies when i think about future areas of growth.

yeah, it's not like they just became big this year...

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

florida and texas seem like the present, not the future, no?

i think of the inland northwest or northern rockies when i think about future areas of growth.

Depends on how you define the future. Florida and Texas will most likely lead the US in raw population growth in the 2020s.

[harryc]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

Depends on how you define the future. Florida and Texas will most likely lead the US in raw population growth in the 2020s.

With the minimalist approach to infrastructure - and the changing climate - ought to make an interesting decade.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by harryc

With the minimalist approach to infrastructure - and the changing climate - ought to make an interesting decade.

Not that different than California in that regard, in all honesty. California infrastructure is highly limited to highways, similarly to Texas and Florida. The difference is that CA is a mature state and should have gotten their act together decades ago in regards to infrastructure and public transport.

Also, climate change is causing issues in all states but notably is worst in these three.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by harryc

With the minimalist approach to infrastructure - and the changing climate - ought to make an interesting decade.

I wouldn’t call it minimalist.... but it certainly isn’t keeping up with + million people per decade growth.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

These two state will definitely pull away and above from the CAs and NYs of the country in a near future without question IMO.

Yet Florida and Texas have much slower economic growth than CA and NY. And this is also "without question" (Census-confirmed)

FL is the most screwed state in the union. It's the most vulnerable first world geography on earth to climate change. FL, despite much faster population growth, still has much weaker economic growth than NY. And TX economic growth isn't in the same galaxy as that of CA.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

I agree that Texas and Florida are growing very fast at the expense of other places, but there are some other trends working against them:

1. The fastest growing cities for the past several decades have always been mid-sized metros in business friendly states that are still affordable for people wishing to buy a new house in the suburbs AND have major universities and a general atmosphere of being "nice" and just enough "coolness". In other words, Raleigh and Nashville. And Salt Lake City. Simply being cheap and in a red state isn't enough, Jackson is bleeding like Cleveland.

- This doesn't describe cities in Florida and Texas anymore. Austin is getting expensive and Florida has always been pricey relative to incomes. A lot of Florida is trashy and uncool and this is the mainstream sentiment. I think Texas and Florida will increasingly have to compete with these other popular locations and that will diminish the share of the relocation pie that they get.

2. COVID and Big Tech re-thinking the corporate office/ HQ moving tax break game. It used to be that a city like Dallas could dominate the competition for getting a Fortune 500 relocation and those companies would bring in 50,000 high paid office jobs at a new Plano campus. But FAANG and tech in general doesn't do that anymore. Instead they are building campuses in all in-demand cities, like Amazon splitting between NoVa and Nashville and NYC and Apple splitting between Austin and the Research Triangle. They also have smaller offices in smaller cities that people know about, like St. Louis's CORTEX, the Microsoft presence in Fargo, IBM in Baton Rouge, etc. The future might be where the biggest most prestigious companies only have mega campuses in a few places like Silicon Valley and Austin and then have offices pretty much everywhere there is also a workforce for them to tap into.

3. People might move less than they used to. As housing prices go up due to low interest rates and disparate incomes, people might have less incentive to relocate if they are already in a cheaper area. Obviously people in expensive areas like California will leave as will people in hard-up places like West Virginia, but middle class people in Kansas City may never have a rational motivation to leave. It used to be that if you advanced in your career you would have to move to a top-tier city, but now with remote work maybe that won't happen? A software developer from Indiana might get an entry level job out of college that's in an office at a local manufacturing company, but then when they are ready to move up instead of going to Austin they'd work remote and not bother with the higher costs of living.

4. Demographic changes. The US may never grow as fast as it did between 1950-2000 again. As the country gets grayer and has fewer kids and illegal immigration is slowed, the ability for cities and states to rocket in population slows too.

Agreed. And people are betting things will stay the same. It never works out that way.