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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 4:21 AM
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UC survey finds Californians aren't leaving the state any more than usual

From ABC7:

'Cal Exodus' debunked? UC survey finds Californians aren't leaving the state any more than usual

By Kayla Galloway
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 6:39PM

SAN FRANCISCO -- Believe it or not, Californians are not ditching the Golden State for its cheaper, less sunny neighbors -- at least no more than usual.

California residents, of course, are moving out of state, just not at a greater rate than we've seen in years past.

That's according to new research from the University of California on the so-called "Cal Exodus."

According to a survey conducted by UC San Diego, the percentage of people wanting to leave California has stayed "static" over the past two years.

Twenty-three percent of California voters reported "seriously considering" leaving California, which is lower than what UC Berkeley researchers found in 2019.

The most recent UC San Diego survey found most residents still believe in the "California Dream," the idea that the state is, in fact, a great place to live and raise a family.

The survey found that Spanish speakers, Latino, African American, Asian American and younger residents tend to be more optimistic about the dream, while older, white, middle class and Republican residents tend to be more pessimistic.

"Despite the popular notion of unhappy Californians leaving the state en masse, our robust research shows there is actually no exodus," said Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department at UC San Diego and the lead researcher

of the survey. "Most residents say that they still believe in the 'California Dream.'"

The UC San Diego research, which surveyed 3,000 people, found residents in Northern California counties and the Central Valley are the residents most likely to consider moving.

And the residents most concerned about the state's future are the middle class, or those who make between $50,000 and $100,000 annually, the data showed.

And if you're wondering who's most satisfied with the direction the state is going, the survey found the state's most affluent residents are likely to believe California is a better place for today's children.

For those who are moving out of California, the UC data found Texas and Washington are the top destinations for the state's youngest residents, while Nevada and Arizona appeal to the older residents.

Research from the UC California Policy Lab found "no evidence" of a "pronounced exodus" from the state, but it did show a trend of residents moving out of San Francisco, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The data showed that two-thirds of those leaving San Francisco moved to 11 counties within the Bay Area's economic region and 80% stayed in California.

"The empirical data will be, at once, disappointing to those who want to write California's obituary, as well as a call to action for policymakers to address the challenges that have caused some to lose faith in the California Dream," said UC Regent John A. Pérez.

Despite the conflicting data, we've seen California companies like Oracle, Tesla and Hewlett Packard announce plans to move its headquarters out of state.

And last year Las Vegas even launched a campaign effort to bring Bay Area tech workers to Nevada, citing the lack of state income tax, affordable homes and warm weather.

Remote workers in the Bay Area were also enticed with the offer of $10,000 to move to Oklahoma.

But according to this new data from the UC, residents are apparently still staying put.

To view the research in its entirety, click here.

Link: https://abc7.com/10869108/?ex_cid=TA...srwH3XqAzGtgzQ
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  #2  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 7:12 AM
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I've told Texans the tiny percentage of Californians moving there and they just lose their minds.
They desperately want to believe their state is flooded with Californians. So do other states. It's just weird shit at this point.

California by it's size, is always going to have more former residents in other states than anywhere else. It doesn't mean anything and it never has.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 7:25 AM
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For quite some time there has been a life cycle for people as well as businesses. They come to California to get started (or get "started" here by being born/created here). The grow, become successful, get affluent, take profits (by selling their vastly inflated CA homes or assets) and go elsewhere to basically live off the profits.

It happens to native born Americans and to quite a few immigrants as well. CA is a wealth incubator. The places affluent Californians go are largely where the wealth is spent and dissipated. But there's always a new generation entering the cycle and so CA will remain America's premier source of innovation and creation.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
I've told Texans the tiny percentage of Californians moving there and they just lose their minds.
They desperately want to believe their state is flooded with Californians. So do other states. It's just weird shit at this point.

California by it's size, is always going to have more former residents in other states than anywhere else. It doesn't mean anything and it never has.
What is weird shit is the Californians, who keep bringing up this topic. I don't think anyone else really cares.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 1:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Nautica View Post
What is weird shit is the Californians, who keep bringing up this topic. I don't think anyone else really cares.
Everyone knows who they are here. And they've cared enough to talk about it for years, so...
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 3:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
For quite some time there has been a life cycle for people as well as businesses. They come to California to get started (or get "started" here by being born/created here). The grow, become successful, get affluent, take profits (by selling their vastly inflated CA homes or assets) and go elsewhere to basically live off the profits.

It happens to native born Americans and to quite a few immigrants as well. CA is a wealth incubator. The places affluent Californians go are largely where the wealth is spent and dissipated. But there's always a new generation entering the cycle and so CA will remain America's premier source of innovation and creation.
We might soon experience the center of population in the U.S. move east for the first time.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 4:37 PM
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Is there a breakdown by demographics, race, and economic class?
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 4:41 PM
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Originally Posted by LA21st View Post
I've told Texans the tiny percentage of Californians moving there and they just lose their minds.
They desperately want to believe their state is flooded with Californians. So do other states. It's just weird shit at this point.

California by it's size, is always going to have more former residents in other states than anywhere else. It doesn't mean anything and it never has.

It's a Republican talking point that has skewed many people's perceptions of reality. That said, nearly 700,000 Californians moved to Texas in the past decade. What you hear less about, though, is that more than 350,000 Texans moved to California during the same period. Maybe a lot of those Californians moving to Texas are really just Texans returning home?


ETA: Personally, I'm sick of the whole TX vs CA thing.


PS. We REALLY didn't want Joe Rogan or Elon Musk and do not appreciate your foisting them upon us.

Last edited by bilbao58; Jul 8, 2021 at 6:24 PM.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 5:39 PM
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Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
Is there a breakdown by demographics, race, and economic class?
CA gains wealthy educated residents primarily from Eastern states like NY, NJ, MI and IL while it loses lower income residents to states like TX, NV and AZ.


https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265
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  #10  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 6:03 PM
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I should have just posted the University of California article that the ABC7 article in the OP links/refers to, which is slightly more detailed.

Some of these have already been mentioned in the OP, but there are other bullet points that I find notable.

From the UC Press Room:

UC studies: Contrary to popular belief, residents are not fleeing California
UC Office of the President
Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Despite California losing a congressional seat for the first time in history due to slow population growth and some high-profile technology companies and billionaires leaving the state, there is no evidence of an abnormal increase in residents planning to move out of the state, according to the results of a new survey released today (July 7) by the University of California. This research is part of a larger, multi-institution research project led by UC to assess whether there is in fact a “Cal exodus.”

Key findings include:

--The majority of Californians still believe in the “California Dream.”

--Residents are moving out of state, but not at unusual rates.

--There is no evidence of “millionaire flight” from California.

--California’s economy attracts as much venture capital as all other states combined.

Formed in fall 2020, the UC-led project is a research consortium designed to bring a fact-based, empirical approach to California’s population patterns, helping to inform state policy and public knowledge. The project includes studies conducted by scholars at UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC San Diego, as well as Cornell University and Stanford University. The research draws on many data sources to investigate the so-called exodus: public opinion data, the U.S. Census, consumer credit histories, home ownership rates, venture capital investments, and information from the Franchise Tax Board.

“From housing affordability to post-pandemic recovery, California is faced with solving a daunting number of existential challenges. To help inform those important public discussions, UC assembled many of the state’s top researchers to provide a data-driven understanding of California’s population trends,” said UC Regent John A. Pérez. “Sliced and diced by geography, race, income and other demographic factors, our efforts have produced a clearer picture of who perceives California as the Golden State versus a failed state. The empirical data will be, at once, disappointing to those who want to write California’s obituary, as well as a call to action for policymakers to address the challenges that have caused some to lose faith in the California Dream.”

No big changes on residents’ plans to leave the state

UC San Diego recently conducted a survey that found the percentage of Californians who plan to leave the state has remained static over the past two years. Twenty-three percent of California’s voters reported that they were seriously considering leaving California, which is slightly lower than the 24 percent found in a 2019 survey conducted by UC Berkeley. This finding is consistent with research that UC San Diego did on Google search trends, which found no increase over the course of the pandemic in how frequently Californians searched terms such as “moving company” or “U-Haul.”

Other findings in the UC San Diego survey of more than 3,000 respondents include:

--By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, Californians respond that they still believe in the “California Dream” (that it’s a great place to live and raise a family) but belief in that dream depends on demographics, economic status and partisan affiliation. Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and younger Californians are more optimistic, while middle-class Californians, white respondents, older residents and Republicans are more pessimistic.

--Those living in parts of the state that have not been part of recent economic expansions, including the Central Valley and northern counties outside of the Bay Area, are most likely to contemplate moving.

--Middle-class Californians making incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the most concerned about the state of California today as well as its future.

--In these polarized times, there is a surprisingly small gap between the percentage of Democrats (21 percent) and Republicans (30 percent) seriously considering moving.

--Growth is not a goal for most Californians: Asked to look ahead 10 years, 35 percent of respondents believe it would be better if the population decreases significantly and 46 percent want it to stay about the same. Only 19 percent of those surveyed said that the state would be better if its population increases.

--The survey also revealed an 8 percent decrease in the percentage of Californians who opined California is one of the best places to live, down from 50 percent in the 2019 UC Berkeley poll to 42 percent in the 2021 UC San Diego poll.

“Despite the popular notion of unhappy Californians leaving the state en masse, our robust research shows there is actually no exodus,” said Thad Kousser, chair of the political science department at UC San Diego and the lead researcher of the most recent survey. “Most residents say that they still believe in the ‘California Dream.’ Policymakers, including those trying to prevent an exodus, should focus more on those who are not as optimistic about the state’s direction, including many in the middle class facing steep housing costs and people from areas of the state facing the greatest economic challenges.”

Claims of “millionaire flight” are unsupported by numerous data sets

The 2021 UC San Diego poll also found that affluent Californians are the group most satisfied with the direction of the state and very likely to believe that it will be a better place when today’s children grow up. This aligns with research into migration patterns of California’s millionaires conducted by project partners at Stanford University and Cornell University. The analysis of nearly two decades of Franchise Tax Board data by Charles Varner and Cristobal Young demonstrated there has been no flight of millionaires away from California despite multiple tax increases levied on higher earners in recent years.

Younger Americans are more mobile, foreign-born immigrants stay

The UC-led project also includes an analysis from researchers at UCLA on domestic immigration and migration (people moving into and out of California from other U.S. states) based on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) database by finance professor Stuart Gabriel and sociology and statistics professor Jennie Brand. Their research found that the number of those moving out of California to other states has trended up since 2012, but that is not uncommon and is similar to levels last seen in the mid-2000s. During that period, those moving into California — both from other states and other countries — has seen few changes.

The UCLA research shows:

--Young Americans (25-39) are moving around at roughly double that of middle-age or older people. While moving into California remains elevated for younger people through 2019, the combination of some decline coupled with those moving out of state has driven down the number of younger people moving into California overall.

--The number of older Americans (60+) moving into California has fallen since 2014 and has recently become negative due to more elderly Californians moving out of state. The number of younger (25-39) and older residents moving out of California has also trended up since 2014.

--Among U.S. destinations, Texas and Washington were at the top of the list among younger people, whereas low-cost and proximate areas of Nevada and Arizona dominated destinations among older Californians.

--Less than 5 percent of foreign-born immigrants who arrived in the U.S. during the prior two years left California. This finding suggests that California is not simply a gateway to other U.S. destinations among recent foreign-born immigrants arriving in the state.

Some migrating out of San Francisco, but staying in state

Using 16 years of credit history data to track residential moves through the end of 2020, a UC California Policy Lab report found “no evidence of a pronounced exodus from the state” and “little evidence that wealthy Californians are leaving en masse” because of the pandemic. The report did, however, reveal net migration away from San Francisco during the pandemic along with a decline in the number of people moving to the state. The report, led by Natalie Holmes, research fellow at the California Policy Lab, found:

--The share of movers that leave the state has grown slightly since 2015, from 16 percent to 18 percent, a trend that continued in 2020 with no marked increase.

--There is no evidence that wealthy households are leaving the state in large numbers.

--Approximately two-thirds of people who moved out of San Francisco remained within the 11-county Bay Area economic region, and 80 percent remained in California which is consistent with trends in prior years.

--Counties in the Sierra Nevada mountains and other parts of northern California saw huge increases in former Bay Area residents, with 50 percent and in some cases double that in 2020 as compared to 2019.

California draws half of all venture capital investments in the U.S.

Lastly, the UC-led project features analysis from Cornell University sociology professor Cristobal Young on which states are getting the most venture capital investment, and it demonstrates two major trends:

--California’s share of venture capital dollars rose from one-third in 1995 to more than half throughout the 2010s. In the first quarter of 2021, the state’s share of VC funding stood at 48 percent, slightly below trend but consistent with normal year-to-year fluctuations.

--Between 1995 and 2005, New York and Texas each received about 6 percent of all VC funding in the U.S. By 2020, New York’s share had doubled to 12 percent, while Texas’s share had fallen to 3 percent. In the first quarter of 2021, the shares were 15 percent and 2 percent respectively. Florida, another oft-mentioned competitor with California, also received 2 percent of VC funding in Q1 2021. Together, Florida and Texas represent less than a quarter of the VC investment in New York, and a 15th of that in California.

Link: https://www.universityofcalifornia.e...ing-california
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  #11  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 6:09 PM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Originally Posted by bilbao58 View Post
It's a Republican talking point that has skewed many people's perceptions of reality. That said, nearly 700,000 Californians moved to Texas in the past decade. What you hear less about, though, is that more than 350,000 Texans moved to California during the same period. Maybe a lot of those Californians moving to Texas are really just Texans returning home?


ETA: Personally, I'm sick of the whole TX vs CA thing.


PS. We REALLY didn't want Joe Rogan or Elan Musk and do not appreciate your foisting them upon us.

Yeah, it's definitely a republican thing. 700k might seem alot in 10 years, in raw numbers but not really by percentage for either state.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 6:17 PM
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Yeah, it's definitely a republican thing. 700k might seem alot in 10 years, in raw numbers but not really by percentage for either state.
According to those numbers it's a net migration of 35,000 per year which is less than 0.1% of the population. Not exactly a mass exodus.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 6:28 PM
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Yeah, it's definitely a republican thing. 700k might seem alot in 10 years, in raw numbers but not really by percentage for either state.
By far most people moving into Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin are moving from Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston.
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  #14  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 8:06 PM
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A survey of 3,000 people....
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 8:48 PM
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A survey of 3,000 people....
I guess you didn't read the whole article above.

There were several studies done to come to the conclusions:

--UC San Diego surveyed 3,000 people.

--UCLA did an analysis on domestic immigration and migration based on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) database.

--The UC California Policy Lab used 16 years of credit history data to track residential moves through the end of 2020.

--The UC-led project features analysis from Cornell University sociology professor Cristobal Young on which states are getting the most venture capital investment.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 8:58 PM
Camelback Camelback is offline
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The title of the article is:

'Cal Exodus' debunked? UC survey finds Californians aren't leaving the state any more than usual

So I said to myself: what survey? and I found in the article you quoted:

"The UC San Diego research, which surveyed 3,000 people, found residents in Northern California counties and the Central Valley are the residents most likely to consider moving.".

No I didn't click the link because I thought you quoted enough of the article explaining the survey that the title of the article was eluding to? I'm sure there's other information out there though.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Camelback View Post
The title of the article is:

'Cal Exodus' debunked? UC survey finds Californians aren't leaving the state any more than usual
They use other methods to debunk besides the survey, and if they tossed out the survey they still debunk the fake news "exodus". Do you have an issue with the article's contents because they show that it's not so bad?

Quote:
No I didn't click the link because I thought you quoted enough of the article explaining the survey that the title of the article was eluding to? I'm sure there's other information out there though.
If you think CA is a failed state, then talk about the poop in SF or something since people haven't been leaving and we have a huge surplus.
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 10:27 PM
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If you think CA is a failed state, then talk about the poop in SF or something since people haven't been leaving and we have a huge surplus.
I didn't say that, nor have I ever, LOL. (if you read my posts I talk about California reaching a population of 60 million in the not too distant future).
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 10:32 PM
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I didn't say that, nor have I ever, LOL. (if you read my posts I talk about California reaching a population of 60 million in the not too distant future).
Swooping in and complaining about the article/survey sure seems like it when the rest of it satisfies your projections. Actually the survey would also confirm it....
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Old Posted Jul 8, 2021, 10:43 PM
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Swooping in and complaining about the article/survey sure seems like it when the rest of it satisfies your projections. Actually the survey would also confirm it....
Whatever you say d00d.
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