Aesthetics Of Cities In The Future

[Razor]

As a child growing up in the 70's, I sometimes had certain perceptions of what cities would look like in 2000 let alone 2021! Obviously these perceptions were skewed a lot because I was so young and had a vivid imagination which was no doubt influenced by television at that time. If you were to magically transport me as that same child into 2021 and dropped me off on some random city street corner, I would be disappointed. OH wires are still visible in the older parts, and the roads all look the same as they did back then. The only thing I may note is the OH wires being buried in newer sections, as well as the use of glass and colour variation on the newly minted towers. Having said all that, what do you see happening in the next 50 years? I myself don't see much change other than high rises continuing using glass, as well as more cities eventually burying their utilities as streets get re-done.Our roads work, so nothing will change in that department. Asphalt will continue, as well as street lighting etc. I can see some American rust belt cities that go through their renaissances having more of those mentioned glass towers being constructed.

What do you see? NA cities like Detroit will perhaps look more Asian?
Maybe vertical gardens become more of a thing? More mass transit being used? More intense infill and less suburbia?

[Crawford]

Why would Metro Detroit evolve into a broadly Asian feel? Detroit is pretty much archtypical North American urban form, with larger SFH on spacious lots, wide arterials, and auto orientation.

I don't see North American cities undergoing radical spatial or aesthetic changes in our lifetimes.

[Razor]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Why would Metro Detroit evolve into a broadly Asian feel? Detroit is pretty much archtypical North American urban form, with larger SFH on spacious lots, wide arterials, and auto orientation.

I don't see North American cities undergoing radical spatial or aesthetic changes in our lifetimes.

I was more or less referring to their cores as new towers get built, and yes 50 years ahead is not enough of a time frame to see anything really radical. I agree.

[Centropolis]

people eating protein slurries in sheds, glittering towers in defensible locations

probably large wastes of radiological impacts, heavy metals and plastics/associated chemical and breakdown products contamination

[iheartthed]

Detroit doesn't have land use control mechanisms like Asian cities, so it will probably never become a city dominated by tall residential towers in any of our lifetimes. If it were to suddenly develop those controls and start growing fast again I could see it become dominated by a bunch of low rise towers, like a newer version of Paris or Berlin.

I think in general, U.S. cities will have to develop more density. Looking back over the past 50 - 70 years, it seems pretty clear that a city needs to embrace continual densification in order to sustain itself.

[hipster duck]

My only prediction is that in "lower density" cities where NIMBYism and house prices have reached a boiling point, that NIMBYism will die down as the boomer and early Gen X homeowners age or die, and the only people who can buy their homes are wealthy members of the investor class or property management companies/REITs.

These people don't care about a home from a sentimental value, but more from a position of returns, so if there is a push for greater densities and upzoning which can increase their land value or returns, they'll take it. I would expect single detached home neighbourhoods in valuable locations to become a jumbled collection of older homes, and either skinny little apartment towers that fill a former single detached home's lot line, or be an assembly of other properties.

Similarly, I'd expect a loosening on permissible uses. Again, a REIT cares less if a coffee shop or bar opens up on a residential side street than a senior who has all their wealth and memories locked up in their million dollar home.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

people eating protein slurries in sheds, glittering towers in defensible locations

probably large wastes of radiological impacts, heavy metals and plastics/associated chemical and breakdown products contamination

You're almost as optimistic as I am!

[bilbao58]

I see some cities replacing cars with boats. Oh, refugee camps. There will be refugee camps.

[bossabreezes]

Cities probably will just be more crowded, more unequal, but largely the same. I don't see some blade-runner type future for any American city, there is just too much land and not enough space constraints. The cities with high-rises will continue their development but most cities will continue their current development style. I don't see LA randomly becoming filled with high rises since nowadays you barely see anything above 3 floors being built outside of downtown.

I think suburbs are actually where we'll see the biggest change, with most suburban areas undergoing densification. I also think we will continue to see the degradation of some former middle class suburban areas and they will continue to get more run-down, even if more dense. You can already see the original suburban decline happening in most California cities. You definitely have it in the NY metro region too, lots of places in Suburban Long Island are looking like sh*t.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

Cities probably will just be more crowded, more unequal, but largely the same. I don't see some blade-runner type future for any American city, there is just too much land and not enough space constraints. The cities with high-rises will continue their development but most cities will continue their current development style. I don't see LA randomly becoming filled with high rises since nowadays you barely see anything above 3 floors being built outside of downtown.

I think suburbs are actually where we'll see the biggest change, with most suburban areas undergoing densification. I also think we will continue to see the degradation of some former middle class suburban areas and they will continue to get more run-down, even if more dense. You can already see the original suburban decline happening in most California cities. You definitely have it in the NY metro region too, lots of places in Suburban Long Island are looking like sh*t.

Curious to know where have you noticed the bolded.

[eschaton]

Globally speaking, the biggest change is going to nearly everywhere outside of Africa having demographically transitioned to a shrinking population by 2100. Not only will birth rates be low, but with most "developing" countries also having few young people, immigration will likely be far more minor as well. As a result, an increasing number of cities will be slow-or-no-growth, and in some cases figuring out how to selectively de-urbanize may be required. This will hurt smaller cities (and of course rural areas) far more than larger ones. Basically it will be Japan writ large.

[mhays]

I also grew up in the 70s and 80s. And I feel cheated out of my sci-fi future!

But going forward...

Automation will take a while but it'll happen -- automated cars, drone deliveries, and so on. The infrastructure for these will play a big role. If we get to flying cars, look out.

Sustainability will also be important as we try to limit climate change. This might mean today's tech writ large, plus new stuff. Will we have solar windows and paint? Bioswales? Ocean wave generators?

Food production might be more localized due to sustainability and simple capacity. Stacked greenhouses in cities?

Development keeps trying to move to prefab components of various types and sizes, with starts and stops due to a bunch of big challenges. But it's staring to show results and gain steam. This might start to predominate.

[mhays]

The biggest news is that two of us wrote "writ large" in consecutive posts.

As for population growth and immigration...

My first takeaway might be that Africa will be a bigger source as its population pressures continue.

But the even bigger source will be climate-related. Hotter places, flooded shorelines, and countries that can no longer feed themselves will produce a lot of migrants.

[MolsonExport]

the shopping mall crisis has long since left its roots in Bari, and has enveloped whole continents.

[Northern Light]

I think there are quite a few visible changes to Cities on the medium-term horizon.

Electric Cars for one, which will almost certainly become the norm will mean both a plethora of electric chargers, likely in every parking lot, but also on-street in many dense cities, and will also mean a further, substantial reduction in gas stations.

I expect you'll see changes in boulevard/parkway landscaping in many cities, both with less hardscape, but also much less use of sod/grass. You'll see a lot more use of native ground covers and drought-resistant plants. We're seeing that shift already, it will grow exponentially.

Rapid transit (subways et al) will overwhelmingly go driver-less, as Vancouver's Sky Train already is; and Montreal's new REM will be; as will Toronto's Ontario Line.

That, in turn will see the installation of platform-edge doors at most stations. Retrofits are likely in NYC, Toronto and elsewhere; in addition to new-builds in this style.

Architecturally, I think you can expect a few things, less parking in many cities as parking minimums are increasingly abolished, not a huge visual effect in cities currently burying their parking, though some real cost and functional changes. But for Cities that still do above-grade parking, it will represent a greater shift.

I expect you'll see more use of arches and architectural references to earlier periods, but in a modern reinterpretation vs pastiche.

Its become cheaper and easier to replicate those things people loved in older buildings that were once done away with for clean lines and lower costs.

Expect grocery stores to be somewhat smaller, particularly in dense urban environments. But this will also shift elsewhere as home delivery demands less front-of-house space.

But you will also see two other changes in grocery (already under way) The first is more meal kits and restaurants-style food options; the second is produce, particularly herbs and greens grown on-site.

Canada's Sobeys chain is rolling out small scale herb-production to almost every store; the other chains will likely follow suit.

***

Expect continued growth of cycling facilities; and more in-road sensors allowing for real-time traffic light adjustments.

LED Streetlights will continue to become the norm; but look as well for them to decrease in height and have a change in fixture-style in many areas to reduce light-pollution.

Also expect more use of Mass Timber in construction.

Toronto currently has several projects set to start construction in the next few months making use of this product.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I don't see LA randomly becoming filled with high rises since nowadays you barely see anything above 3 floors being built outside of downtown.

What? The photos on this Flickr page paint a very different picture. https://www.flickr.com/photos/hunterkerhart/

[ChrisLA]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

What? The photos on this Flickr page paint a very different picture. https://www.flickr.com/photos/hunterkerhart/

I think he’s talking mostly outside of downtown, but I also have to disagree. Every apartment building that is being built in my neck of the woods are 5 floors, and no SFH’s and I’m at the far west end of the city limits in the San Fernando Valley.

[homebucket]

It does seem like LA has the most potential for growth. Even with its recent progress, there still appears to be a lot of surface parking lots just waiting to be turned into skyscrapers.

[homebucket]

Lots of opportunity for 3+ story projects outside of downtown too.

Cumulus by HunterKerhart.com, on Flickr

Thompson Hotel Hollywood by HunterKerhart.com, on Flickr

EPIC Hollywood (Netflix) by HunterKerhart.com, on Flickr

Four Seasons Residences by HunterKerhart.com, on Flickr

Academy On Vine by HunterKerhart.com, on Flickr

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by homebucket

It does seem like LA has the most potential for growth. Even with its recent progress, there still appears to be a lot of surface parking lots just waiting to be turned into skyscrapers.

Or even strip malls; lots of potential there for much denser buildings.

Back in the 1980s, strip malls proliferated in LA ("mini-malls" they were called back then), particularly the small ones built on corners, which were actually built on the sites of gas stations that had closed. Many were built with the expectation that they'd eventually be knocked down anyway for something much bigger/denser as the property values rose, hence the slap-dash/throwaway architecture of many of them.