Why isn't Chicago...greater than it currently is in 2023?

[destroycreate]

Ok, don't come for me--just hear me out.

We hear about cities like Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, etc. blowing up. People are "fleeing" LA/SF and NYC for cheaper cost living enclaves.

What I don't get it is...why doesn't Chicago seem to have more pull? It is a world class city, truly urban through and through, offers traditional cosmopolitan major city life, and save it for a few crime-ridden parts, is pretty safe and most importantly exceptionally affordable for a city of its kind. Atlanta is apparently the land of $36k-salaried millionaires, but who wants that when you can live in an urban brownstone-lite in a compact neighborhood in Chicago that boasts the arts, transit, culinary enclaves and more? If I'm also understanding correctly, you can find McMansions galore in the Chicago ex-urbs too.

Anecdotally, when I speak to people in Seattle, LA, SF, or SD, I rarely hear anybody yearning to move to Chicago. But they'll be open to relocating to Austin, Dallas or Miami.

Is it just the weather? Is that honestly such a big deal for people? Lack of higher paying jobs? To me, Chicago is an amazing city which I think most us can agree on--but shouldn't it be exploding with growth and becoming a major go to? It seems like it's just been sort of stagnant—growth seems more like a slow burn than making front page news stories.

[sentinel]

Oh boy..

[Crawford]

Chicago is great. I believe it's still a Top 10 global economy. If you're one of the Top 10 economies on earth, you're doing pretty well.

That said, I'd disagree if you're arguing that Chicago is unusually cosmopolitan, safe or affordable. It isn't provincial, dangerous or expensive, either, but on all three counts, if those are your primary criteria, you can do about as well in other places.

IMO Chicago's biggest attractions are that it's probably the only U.S. city not on the coasts that's a "real city", it probably has the second largest traditional urban core in the Americas, and it couldn't be more central.

[wg_flamip]

Originally Posted by Crawford

IMO Chicago's biggest attractions are that it's probably the only U.S. city not on the coasts that's a "real city", it probably has the second largest traditional urban core in the Americas, and it couldn't be more central.

I'd agree for North America, but Buenos Aires has it beat in the Americas as a whole IMO.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by wg_flamip

I'd agree for North America, but Buenos Aires has it beat in the Americas as a whole IMO.

Yeah, probably. I do think they're in about the same tier, though. A tier in which I would also include Rio de Janeiro and Santiago.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

But they'll be open to relocating to Austin, Dallas or Miami.

All of those have 1) lower taxes, 2) nicer winters, 3) less crime (or at least the perception of), than Chicago.

The combination of those factors is likely why people move to those cities rather than to Chicago.

Actually, given you mentioned that the reason you know that people on the West Coast are wanting to move to "Austin, Dallas or Miami" is because they tell you about it during casual conversations, why don't you use those opportunities to get your answer straight from the horse's mouth as to why they aren't choosing Chicago instead?

Ask them, not us!

[destroycreate]

Originally Posted by lio45

All of those have 1) lower taxes, 2) nicer winters, 3) less crime (or at least the perception of), than Chicago.

The combination of those factors is likely why people move to those cities rather than to Chicago.

Actually, given you mentioned that the reason you know that people on the West Coast are wanting to move to "Austin, Dallas or Miami" is because they tell you about it during casual conversations, why don't you use those opportunities to get your answer straight from the horse's mouth as to why they aren't choosing Chicago instead?

Ask them, not us!

Their answer is usually that is “sounds” too cold or “American Pie” if I’m being brutally honest. But most of them have never visited or spent serious time there.

[uaarkson]

Chicago is also probably in the top 3 when it comes to architecture.

[SIGSEGV]

For a lot of people I know (as opposed to the tucker Carlson crowd who would never consider it)the weather. They either grew up in the south or on the west coast and are irrationally scared of winter, despite never having experienced it.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

[A] lot of people... are irrationally scared of winter, despite never having experienced it.

My sister finished college in Austin, married her boyfriend, and moved to Chigago so he could attend the School of the Art Institute. That was in 1977. Just in time for a couple of REALLY bad winters, including the Bilandic fiasco. For a whole winter, they only saw the roof of their Chevy Vega peaking out above the snow and ice. Our family had lived in Toronto just five years earlier. Chicago's winter was much worse.

I never forgave my sister for moving back to Texas and depriving me of a free place to stay in that wonderful city.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

For a lot of people I know (as opposed to the tucker Carlson crowd who would never consider it)the weather. They either grew up in the south or on the west coast and are irrationally scared of winter, despite never having experienced it.

I never understood folks being afraid of winter, versus say a humid, mars like conditions of South Carolina or Texas.

The winters might be harsh, but there's the rest of the year. A fine trade off considering it could be continuously hot and humid all year.

Folks move to the South for housing opportunity and because its much cheaper to live. Although the heat... eh... if that's what people like, go for it.

I doubt the humid and hot weather is a major factor.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

Ok, don't come for me--just hear me out.

We hear about cities like Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, etc. blowing up. People are "fleeing" LA/SF and NYC for cheaper cost living enclaves.

What I don't get it is...why doesn't Chicago seem to have more pull? It is a world class city, truly urban through and through, offers traditional cosmopolitan major city life, and save it for a few crime-ridden parts, is pretty safe and most importantly exceptionally affordable for a city of its kind. Atlanta is apparently the land of $36k-salaried millionaires, but who wants that when you can live in an urban brownstone-lite in a compact neighborhood in Chicago that boasts the arts, transit, culinary enclaves and more? If I'm also understanding correctly, you can find McMansions galore in the Chicago ex-urbs too.

Anecdotally, when I speak to people in Seattle, LA, SF, or SD, I rarely hear anybody yearning to move to Chicago. But they'll be open to relocating to Austin, Dallas or Miami.

Is it just the weather? Is that honestly such a big deal for people? Lack of higher paying jobs? To me, Chicago is an amazing city which I think most us can agree on--but shouldn't it be exploding with growth and becoming a major go to? It seems like it's just been sort of stagnant—growth seems more like a slow burn than making front page news stories.

From what I understand, Chicago is indeed exploding with growth/a major go to city -- for the highly educated millennials, mostly whites and Asian-Americans. That's why the downtown areas, including near south, west, and north sides remain fairly vibrant. However, that growth does not offset the exodus of lower and middle class, mostly African- Americans, and the cessation of high Latino immigration that benefited Chicago in the prior decades before 2000. That's why the south and west sides that are not adjacent to downtown have serious crime and blight issues that the city is having a hard time to resolve.

[TexasPlaya]

Not just Chicago but a lot of the Midwest. Just the inertia of new america vs old america.

[goat314]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

Not just Chicago but a lot of the Midwest. Just the inertia of new america vs old america.

This, it's the reason that places like Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, etc. are not attracting a lot of new growth and investment. They are just mature, legacy cities, and despite them being interesting as hell and dynamic in their own right, they are not the clean, easy slate that you find in a city like Nashville, Charlotte, Denver etc.

[chris08876]

Maybe global warming will make Chicago a prime destination, especially once millions of folks need to relocate.

But in all seriousness, a lot of folks underestimate the idea of perception. Chicago's weak leadership and rampant crime does deter folks outside of the gated communities of downtown and the lake front communities/neighborhoods in which the high cost of living relative to the surroundings requires higher caliber folks. It's why the suburbs see much better growth in Chicagoland.

I doubt the winters are a massive factor, but schools are. At least in the city proper.

The city is still a massive powerhouse and growing, but the true potential is not really there because of other glaring factors. Considering its a bargain version of NYC for what you get urban wise, that not many other cities can hold a candle to. Chicago offers much but the potential could be much grander...

It just needs the right folks in power there to bring it back to sanity and to attract even more business and residents.

[goat314]

Cold weather, highly segregated (racially and economically), and it's just a mature, legacy city (which usually means slower growth).

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by chris08876

But in all seriousness, a lot of folks underestimate the idea of perception. Chicago's weak leadership and rampant crime does deter folks outside of the gated communities of downtown and the lake front communities/neighborhoods in which the high cost of living relative to the surroundings requires higher caliber folks. It's why the suburbs see much better growth in Chicagoland.

You talk about the power of perception as opposed to actual truth. You then go right back into the standard media perception of rampant crime and weak leadership without providing evidence. You're correct that Chicago suffers from a perception issue. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done about it when nothing positive is ever actually reported and spread through the typical media narrative.

I don't live downtown or along the lakefront, but rather in the northwest side, about halfway between downtown and O'Hare airport. Not expensive, still quite nice, easy transit access, walkable, etc.. In fact, I can nearly guarantee my rent is less than I'd be paying in most other cities that have been mentioned in this very thread.

I don't discount Chicago's warts in any way. Crime is definitely too high, but certainly isn't rampant. There are definitely plenty of issues, but what city doesn't face a boatload of issues? All in all, this place is a damned bargain for what you get!

Aaron (Glowrock)

[iheartthed]

I'd be careful about confusing what Americans buzz about with a great city. Americans don't really buzz about NYC, but it is arguably the greatest city on the planet. Americans buzz about shit that looks like this and disdain scenes like this.

I also don't think Chicago's weather has much of anything to do with the city's seeming stagnation. I suspect most of the cities in the Midwest still haven't quite gotten a handle on sprawl which has acted as a sap on their central cities, but Sun Belt cities haven't really had to deal with that problem yet.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by glowrock

You talk about the power of perception as opposed to actual truth. You then go right back into the standard media perception of rampant crime and weak leadership without providing evidence. You're correct that Chicago suffers from a perception issue. Unfortunately, there's not much that can be done about it when nothing positive is ever actually reported and spread through the typical media narrative.

The problem with perception is that it doesn’t actually drive migration or city growth. Social networks, geographic location and real economic conditions do.

The general media almost always follows the people least likely to drive urbanization, retirees and large families with children. Because of that they are almost always 20-30 years behind the real start of any shift. Tracking young educated women is actually a better measure of where a city is going, but that rarely happens.

For example earlier in the thread:

It's why the suburbs see much better growth in Chicagoland.

I’m pretty sure this is false for the 2010s and quite likely for the 2020s so far as well. The city grew faster than the suburbs in the 2010.

On the topic of 1990s NYC, a savvy person would have started investing in the 1980s. There were articles as early as 1982 talking about increased median income, a larger young female population, and increase in immigration, even though the overall population numbers were the source of many doomer articles in the media.

[pdxtex]

My general feeling is Chicago is only a draw for midwesterners and most other coastal refugees are probably seeking the sun belt. I guess 10 million is its equilibrium point because its been 10 million more or less for 20 years. It takes a certain mindset to uproot yourself from suburban Los Angeles and move to Illinois. Also Chicago doesn't really need the rest of America. As long as big ten colleges keep cranking out graduates, Wrigleyville will keep selling beer.