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  #1  
Old Posted May 24, 2007, 5:07 AM
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How long will skyscrapers last?

It's been a question on my mind. In 500-1000 years what will become of skyscrapers? Will they still be safe structurally? When will they begin to fall apart?

I'm assuming they aren't ever replaced or dismantled. I haven't heard of any research on it. Ideas?

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  #2  
Old Posted May 24, 2007, 8:13 AM
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i would say indefinitely as long as they are maintained. there are cathedrals in europe that are centuries old so i don't see why a modern skyscraper can't last as long or longer.
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  #3  
Old Posted May 24, 2007, 6:57 PM
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Consider that some early tall skyscrapers such as the Woolworth Building in NY are almost 100 years old already.

I wonder if metal fatigue could eventually be an issue after several hundred years however. While steel is much less likely that aluminum to suffer metal fatigue and unlike aircraft, buildings generally don't move, it may be possible that a tall building swaying in the wind could develop problems over a very long period.

As JMancuso mentioned, maintenance is very important, once water gets in, it leads to all sorts of damage. Certain structures in Detroit are a testament to this problem. On the other hand even some abandonded skyscrapers in Detroit have stood for 2 or 3 decades with little or no maintenance and are still structurally sound. Currently several of these are being restored after about 30 years of neglect.

Last edited by DecoJim; May 24, 2007 at 7:24 PM.
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  #4  
Old Posted May 24, 2007, 7:11 PM
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yep, it all comes down to maintnance, maintenance, maintenance.

as long as someone is around to care enough about a building to keep the water out and to make periodic repairs when neccessary (and barring catostrophic disasters like terrorism, asteroid impacts, global thermo-nuclear war, etc.) there's no telling how long a skyscraper can stand.
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  #5  
Old Posted May 24, 2007, 7:23 PM
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as long as we want them around

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  #6  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 12:39 AM
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According to Star Trek many skyscrapers and tall structures such as San Francisco's Transamerica Pyramid and Golden Gate Bridge and Paris' Eiffel Tower will still be standing in the 24th Century.
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  #7  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 3:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
yep, it all comes down to maintnance, maintenance, maintenance.

as long as someone is around to care enough about a building to keep the water out and to make periodic repairs when neccessary (and barring catostrophic disasters like terrorism, asteroid impacts, global thermo-nuclear war, etc.) there's no telling how long a skyscraper can stand.



This question came up once or twice before. Steely Dan is right on.

Maintenance, esp the water issue, will keep these things alive alot longer than those posting, including their childrens childrens.
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  #8  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 3:36 AM
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indefinitally IMO. At some point skyscrapers may need massive, costly structural overhauls, but if someone is willing to pay for it, they will last until the end of time.
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  #9  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 4:34 AM
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I barely know anything on steel and concrete fatigue, but I would assume about 300 years per average skyscraper. Sure some may last longer, but this longevity would require costly repairs, including, perhaps, replacement of bearing steel columns and concrete cores. Obviously not every building owner would be willing to put up with such a headache, so many would probably prefer to demolish it altogether rather than going into the costly repairs, just like most average cars are thrown out when the price of repairs exceeds the price of a similar new car, even if current technology in theory allows for restoration of the old car.

The question is whether humans will stick around long enough or will decide to nuke the crud out of each other before the test of time would tell how long skyscrapers would last.

By the way, I remember reading somewhere about an inspector visiting the Twin Towers in August 2001 or something and making a report on how the structures would last for at least 300 more years if they undergo routine maintenance (e.g. don't fall into total disrepair).
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  #10  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 10:12 AM
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I'd imagine that the viability of today's buildings will erode much faster than their physical structure. Newer, bigger, better skyscrapers will come along with amenities that just aren't possible in older buildings (or are too expensive to implement).
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  #11  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zerton View Post
It's been a question on my mind. In 500-1000 years what will become of skyscrapers? Will they still be safe structurally? When will they begin to fall apart?

I'm assuming they aren't ever replaced or dismantled. I haven't heard of any research on it. Ideas?

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I remember hearing that with proper maintence the Statue of Liberty could last as long as 500 years.

The Texas Capitol will be turning 120 years old next year and it's in fine shape. It was last restored in 1997.
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  #12  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 1:23 PM
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until the oil-based economy collapses
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  #13  
Old Posted May 25, 2007, 1:33 PM
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Generally speaking structures tend to become functionally obsolete or financially unviable before they develop any type of real structural concern.

Fatigue is a problem in any material (including concrete), but the levels of stress usually seen in a building are below the critical threshold - meaning they can continue to sway in the wind for as long as is necessary. Bridges, for example, are especially sensitive to fatigue. The magnitude of stress change and the frequency which it occurs are both higher. In these cases, bridges do "wear out" -- and occasionally do fall down.

What is more of a concern with buildings is "creep" or the continued deformation of the structure (indefinitely) even under sustained/permanent load. Think of that old barn out in the field with a sagging roof and leaning walls.
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  #14  
Old Posted May 28, 2007, 4:10 AM
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Old barns do not fail because of creep - they fail for the same reason mentioned above - maintenance.

When barns fall into disuse the roof is not maintained and then water gets into the building and gradually destroys the wooden structure. Barns that have proper and continued protection from the elements last for hundreds of years.
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  #15  
Old Posted May 28, 2007, 5:18 PM
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Quote:
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until the oil-based economy collapses
Well, it's not going to collapse suddenly (unless there is a war or something), but it will certainly naturally decline.
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  #16  
Old Posted May 28, 2007, 7:46 PM
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If everyone suddenly died and left our cities and the World deserted and behind, by 5 years New York City would be covered with plants, although all the dead leaves could cause major fires, if a fire started in Central Park would the buildings surrounding it survive? By 50 years buildings would start to crumble, Glass boxes would fall faster than older stone buildings such as the Grand Central Station. Bridges would last for at least 300 years before collapsing but bridges like the Hell Gate Bridge would not collapse for another 700 years. By 20,000 years Glacers would completly wipe out New York City.

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  #17  
Old Posted May 28, 2007, 10:13 PM
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I think the older buildings will stand up o.k. Its the newer buildings I have concern about.

Look at places in Europe that have buildings standing for over 500 years now.

We use to build things to last.
So the old skyscrapers like Empire State, etc I think will be fine.

The new stuff though has a build in shelf life almost. All these glass and steel towers with cheap materials just won't stand up as long.
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  #18  
Old Posted May 28, 2007, 10:51 PM
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Well, as long as we don't fall into a serious dark age I'd imagine most landmark skyscrapers of today will be preserved for 100s of years. With proper maintenance I'm sure the ESB, petronas or burj dubai would still stand after 500 years
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  #19  
Old Posted May 30, 2007, 5:03 AM
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new skyscrapers in most cities are built with very durable materials, i think facades on early twentieth century buildings are much more likely to fall into disrepair than the new glass structures being built today, i think though developers will destroy most skyscrapers in the future, not nature
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  #20  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2007, 2:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amaddry View Post
Old barns do not fail because of creep - they fail for the same reason mentioned above - maintenance.

When barns fall into disuse the roof is not maintained and then water gets into the building and gradually destroys the wooden structure. Barns that have proper and continued protection from the elements last for hundreds of years.
I agree that maintenance and repair is a key component for any structure's longevity, but no amount of maintenance can undo creep strain. Even if the participating load were to be removed, there is some possibility that the creep occurred in the inelastic range (meaning that it never be erased).

There are many types of failure - strength being only one. Failure is also achieved if serviceability is lost, stability is compromised, or excessive fatigue is accumulated. Sagging beams are a result of only one thing - long term creep. Slanting walls and leaning columns could also be the result of ongoing creep strain accumulation. If these conditions persist in any way, the structure may become unusable, unstable, or too weak.

Creep considerations are more common in today's engineering practice but was less likely to be made say 100 years ago. Unaccounted creep would almost certainly reduce any calculated factor of safety - opening the door to a variety of possible failure modes.
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