Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I get that this is the complaint, but I don't understand what they're "dealing with". I'm in Metro Detroit at least once every winter, and there's nothing to "deal with". All cars are fine in the snow nowadays. Sprawl neighborhoods are all attached garages, so no reason to even go out in the cold. No one walks anyways; it's all car-oriented, and every store, restaurant or service does curbside. Winters in the north can suck bc of the hermetic existence, but not really the snow/cold. Completely avoidable for most.

I get there are people like this, I just don't understand the why.

What is good for young families in a place with generally poor schools, minimal services and high crime? Rye is basically a dream locale for parents. Public schools are Ivy League factories, libraries and cultural centers and youth activities are ridiculously good. You can live on the beach, walk to an amusement park, and 30 minutes by train to the center of the world. The only negative is it's all very expensive.

And isn't the point of preferring warmth predicated on being outside? People in FL are generally inside, in AC. There's less streetlife in FL than almost anywhere in the U.S. Minneapolis (which, yeah, gets unusually cold) has more streetlife than anywhere in FL excepting a few blocks of South Beach. FL doesn't have a Coastal CA type climate, where you can eat dinner outdoors practically all year. There's buggy/rainy season half the year. It's almost always humid and windy. You can't even walk barefoot due to the fire ants and scorpions.

When I'm visiting boomer types in FL, the only outside time is at restaurants. That's basically it. There are almost no pedestrians.

This all comes down to you being out of touch with reality, that's why you don't understand it. There are tons of young, wealthy families all throughout FL, I certainly wouldn't move my family to FL for the reasons you describe, but I can at least understand the appeal. It's not like these families are eating dinner at 4pm at the local Denny's or wherever. 30A is very wealthy, and basically nothing but young families. Jacksonville area is similar. It's certainly not for everyone, but I do get the appeal.

You are also VASTLY under estimating how much of a change in life winter is in the midwest, especially if you have kids. People certainly deal with it, and many enjoy it, but it is certainly something to deal with. Again, you are living on a different planet from the rest of us.

[chris08876]

I miss the snow. This climate change is messing with my winters!

Eh, just shovel the snow. That's why there is an obesity crisis, because folks don't shovel snow. High tech technology such as a snow blower can also make it really quick. Just put some salt down before a snow storm, than get your ass out and shovel. Once its done, go inside, grab a Dr.Pepper and relax.

Snow can make for some very nice aesthetics. Everything looks nicer when its snowing. That crisp air.

Unlike the soup of the South. Humidity and heat is gross. Crisp air, nice 45-55 F and that is paradise. Plus bugs aren't out. That's the nice thing. No risk of malaria, which is coming to a town near you if the heat and humidity continues. Florida...Alabama...Georgia... its coming the way things are going! Only a matter of time.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by lp198

Hi all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. Miami native dialing in from Chicago.

As Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida's west coast, I wanted to ask about the impact the storm might have on the explosive migration to Florida in recent years.

In the mid 2000s, when FL was experiencing multiple major hurricane landfalls per year, my company experienced significant difficulty in recruiting talent to Miami, many candidates specifically identifying weather as a concern. These concerns definitely cooled recently as Florida has been relatively spared by major landfalls - until today. I found an incredible amount of social media traction from newly arrived Florida residents expressing extreme panic regarding Ian as it approached -- new transplants to Tampa specifically.

It's looking like Ian is poised to absolutely devastate SW Florida. I'm curious what its impact will be on the appeal of the region to would-be transplants.

Prayers to all in the path.

What about Hurricane Michael, just a few years ago? Granted, it hit the Panhandle, which is a totally different region than what most people associate with Florida.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Credit: CNN

I found out where this one is. That brown church at the middle-right is St Peter Lutheran Church. The one semi-intact house along the shore is this one here:
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4409...7i16384!8i8192

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

18 hours with no news, but google found this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYPzOZnZQOc

Reminds me of the comments section on The Villages, FL news website this morning. Residents were complaining about a few palm fronds blown onto their pristine public landscaping. Their priorities are in the right place at The Villages, yeah?

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

FL will rebound as always. If Hurricane Andrew back in the 1990's was so devastating, then Miami would've never have grown so large and South FL would've never been as big as it currently is. And FL has always been vulnerable to hurricanes as CA is to earthquakes and TX to AZ is to heat and drought, and those states host large growing populations.

One hurricane isn't the death knell of FL and I wished a lot of posters here stop acting like it's the death of Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and the entire state of FL because of one hurricane!!!

To me, the issue isn't the "death" of these areas. The issue is the way people continue to build in areas that are destined for exactly what has happened repeatedly, and will continue to happen.

I spent five hours yesterday chatting online with an elderly lady who was trapped on the second floor of her apartment building in Fort Myers. The entire first floor was flooded, and all the cars in the parking lot were submerged. I looked on Google Earth and Streetview, and saw that her complex was located right on the river in Fort Myers (right by the Edison Bridge). So as the surge came up the river, land areas were immediated flooded. Much of the city was devastated by the surge. So if development occurs in such an area, people are going to suffer, if they survive.

After the lady acknowledged that she wasn't going to die (after the water level eventually decreased), a bunch of us on the forum tried to help her understand how she could get help. That wasn't easy because she wasn't being rationale. I have to wonder how many tens of thousands of Floridians are currently in the same shape, while the people up in The Villages are concerned because the wind caused their perfect city to look a little untidy for a day.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

This all comes down to you being out of touch with reality, that's why you don't understand it.

Nope, I understand fine. I just don't understand the underlying why. It's bizarre.

Anyone who willingly moves from one of the wealthiest/best educated towns in the U.S. to the poorest part of FL, and for children, no less, is pretty much crazy. The best public school in the Panhandle wouldn't be in the same galaxy as the worst public school in Rye.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

To me, the issue isn't the "death" of these areas. The issue is the way people continue to build in areas that are destined for exactly what has happened repeatedly, and will continue to happen.

To be fair, this part of FL hasn't had that many hurricanes, compared to other parts. Of course any part of FL is susceptible to hurricanes, but I can't imagine they'd have a long-term major negative impact unless there were a major increase in frequency (which is at least plausible, given climate change). I do think insurance premiums will be a major issue going forward, however.

It's worth noting that other states are working to help, no strings attached. The Governors of NY and NJ issued a joint statement that they'll contribute anything needed. NYC's mayor did this same.

This is to the FL Gov that regularly demonizes these states, and has trolled NYC by sending 15,000 migrants in the last few weeks, basically sowing chaos (NYC is the only U.S. jurisdiction that has an automatic right to housing, meaning NYC taxpayers now have to find 15,000 additional people a place to sleep). NYC responds by asking how can we help.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

In 99% of Florida, yes. Also, Kansas, which has 3,000 feet of elevation change, is "flat", and therefore boring, but nobody seems to mind the the true pancake flatness of Florida, highest point 350ft.

You need to drive around Florida and see how off-base you are. Coastal areas are of course pancake flat. But do some browsing on Google Earth and you'll find some regions that surprise you. For example, the area between Orlando and The Villages has areas that are quite hilly, not just rolling. Even the west part of the Orlando metro is anything but flat. The panhandle has a lot of hilly areas.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Backpacking, mountain biking, and long-distance cycling is what I do. Florida has sunlight but not shade. It doesn't have woods. You're just out there, exposed, to sunlight that is literally 4X more intense than the summer sunlight around the Great Lakes (take a photo light meter reading in both places if you don't believe me).

This means you can go out for 2-3 hours, tops. You can't backpack or bike for 10 hours. You'll end up in the hospital.

Once again, you are just plain wrong. Florida has a large regions that are forested. You may not have a lot of woods along the coast in some areas, although even Tampa has some very woodsy areas. The the panhandle has forests that grow pretty much up to the coast in areas.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

To me, the issue isn't the "death" of these areas. The issue is the way people continue to build in areas that are destined for exactly what has happened repeatedly, and will continue to happen.

Go to 1:12 mark onward. Same f***k people. And they will not move!


• Video Link

George Carlin-Natural Disasters

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

You need to drive around Florida and see how off-base you are. Coastal areas are of course pancake flat. But do some browsing on Google Earth and you'll find some regions that surprise you. For example, the area between Orlando and The Villages has areas that are quite hilly, not just rolling. Even the west part of the Orlando metro is anything but flat. The panhandle has a lot of hilly areas.

I've seen areas like that north of Orlando. They're really pretty "meh" as far as hills go. Here's an area I stumbled across in June:
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8342...7i13312!8i6656
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8315...7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8280...7i16384!8i8192
I took a random turn onto that road from US-441 and I was like, "Whoa - hills!"

But Kansas has waaaay more hills and topography than anything you'll find in Florida.
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1321...7i10240!8i5120
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1563...7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0661...7i16384!8i8192

Florida is the flattest state.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Nope, I understand fine. I just don't understand the underlying why. It's bizarre.

Anyone who willingly moves from one of the wealthiest/best educated towns in the U.S. to the poorest part of FL, and for children, no less, is pretty much crazy. The best public school in the Panhandle wouldn't be in the same galaxy as the worst public school in Rye.

Professor Crawford wrong again, 30A isn't one of the poorest parts of Florida, homes on the water or water adjacent go for $15M, homes 4 blocks inland still go for $3M+. The entire area is no more than half a mile from the water. Apparently the public schools are solid, but they are sending their kid to some private school. The house they are building is $3M, sold a $3M home in Rye, they are getting LESS for their money in Rosemary Beach.

I certainly wouldn't raise kids in Florida, but I understand why people do.

[Altoic]

People rebuild the same reason people rebuild after any natural disaster. Unfortunately, hurricanes are a price to pay when you want to live in a sunny state. New building codes and better technology will help minimize damage/injuries in many areas in the coming future. We've already seen the new building codes at work after Andrew. The main concern I have is that although we've seen Florida being hit repeatedly by hurricanes, many areas including Tampa are unprepared and vulnerable, a lot of work needs to be done!

Here is a worst-case scenario for the Tampa Bay area:

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[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Nope, I understand fine. I just don't understand the underlying why. It's bizarre.

It doesn't really matter if you personally don't understand the underlying why.

It doesn't change the fact that untold hundreds of thousands of Midwesterners have moved to Florida over the past 7 decades, and one of the prime drivers of that migration is an outright hatred of long cold snowy winters.

Most of these people don't give a single flying fucking shit about schools or urbanism or walkability or whatever else it is that you deem to be super-important in life. Above all else, they hate snow, and will live just about anywhere to never have to see it again.

[Reverberation]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

Probably one of the dumbest posts in recent memory here (and that is saying something).

It's one thing to say "Florida doesn't appeal to me" or "it's not my cup of tea" but to say "I don't get why people move to Florida to begin with" is stupid. REALLY? You don't know why people move to Florida? No State Tax, Warm/Hot weather year round, year round boating, year round fishing, hundreds of miles of beaches. Come on.

"You've got to drive everywhere"

"Sunlight is so intense you can't do much during the day"

I assume you are not this stupid in real life.

Some people like cheap real estate that is a short drive from pretty beaches. Who cares if the house is weedy and ugly. That’s what Home Depot is for. Make it a hobby during the dry season. They like their space, they like to possess their space and do with it what they please, and as for the ugly buildings, the hotter/wetter/more tropical climate requires more durable materials. The value proposition of Miami vs. Chicago strongly favors Miami is all I’m saying. Tampa Bay Area vs. the twin cities… duh. It’s a laid back and optimistic place and the people are fun and odd in the same way that California people are. Plus the springs with all of the manatees and shit.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

I've seen areas like that north of Orlando. They're really pretty "meh" as far as hills go. Here's an area I stumbled across in June:
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8342...7i13312!8i6656
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8315...7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.8280...7i16384!8i8192
I took a random turn onto that road from US-441 and I was like, "Whoa - hills!"

But Kansas has waaaay more hills and topography than anything you'll find in Florida.
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1321...7i10240!8i5120
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1563...7i16384!8i8192
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.0661...7i16384!8i8192

Florida is the flattest state.

Those links to Florida were pretty, but are not the hilly area I mentioned between Orlando and The Villages. No resemblance. But again, I love the scenes you provided.

[SIGSEGV]

I wonder how many cars were destroyed and if the supply chain can handle that right now...

[bobdreamz]

[QUOTE=Altoic;9746825]People rebuild the same reason people rebuild after any natural disaster. Unfortunately, hurricanes are a price to pay when you want to live in a sunny state. New building codes and better technology will help minimize damage/injuries in many areas in the coming future. We've already seen the new building codes at work after Andrew.. The main concern I have is that although we've seen Florida being hit repeatedly by hurricanes, many areas including Tampa are unprepared and vulnerable, a lot of work needs to be done!

The issue is that while Miami and Southeast Florida has some of the strongest building codes in the Nation following Hurricane Andrew in 1992 the State of Florida didn't want to adopt our building codes calling them "Costly" and "Anti-growth & development".

This is why Florida still has Mobile Home parks while Miami does not.
This why the rest of Florida can build Wood framed Homes & multi-story Apartment buildings while Miami does not.

There is the Property Insurance crisis in our State that went Un addressed during the last Legislative Session since "CRT" and "Don't Say Gay" in schools were more important issues.
Wait until thousands of people start filing Insurance claims and they get denied. This is going to have some serious Political implications for DeSantis.

[chris08876]

I'd like to see a Hurricane named "The Power of Christ Compels You".

"Hurricane The Power of Christ Compels You".

The thought just ran through my head this morning and had to get it out. Sounds much better than Hurricane Ian. Maybe reserve it for a CAT 5.

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I wonder how many cars were destroyed and if the supply chain can handle that right now...

Yeah its going to be bad enough. The price of used cars is through the roof. A lot of boats destroyed as well.