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  #41  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 3:22 AM
twister244 twister244 is offline
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When it comes to climate change, Florida has so many slow moving problems happening all at once. It's why I would never ever spend a penny on any property down there.

Yes, this is a one-time event. But it's encapsulating trends in Hurricanes with a changing climate - They are getting stronger.... faster. Also, there's some evidence that they are moving slower as they make landfall. Today is a great example of that. It's one thing to have a cat 4/5 make landfall while moving through at 20-25 mph speed. It's a whole other story when the thing is barely crawling in at 5 mph where you are in the front-right quadrant getting the worst of all worlds. That's exactly what happened to Cape Coral today.

Do I think this one storm will suddenly stop domestic migration from up North? No. But it may give some people a bit of pause. The problems will start to compound if we see more storms like this every year. But that's not it either....... You have sea level rise. In people's mind's, they think it's something that will happen in the future, when completely ignoring the 1/2/3 mm of rise happening every year. This is going to cause increasing problems for drinking water, salt water intrusion, etc. Yes, the Surfside collapse was due to neglect, but saltwater was getting into the building's foundation (from what I recall reading), causing destructive erosion. What will happen if another building were to come down because of neglect? Was Surfside a one-off, or the beginning of a pattern that may reveal itself over the coming years? If there was one old condo tower with neglect, are there others?

Point is - Ian by itself isn't going to reverse any trends, but it is part of a path we are on where slowly things will likely reverse over a very long period of time. How the economics on the ground respond to this, and on what timescale remains to be seen.

Just my two cents.
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  #42  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 3:44 AM
galleyfox galleyfox is online now
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Florida gets kicked in the balls every other year by a hurricane yet people still live and move there. Don't see an impact other than the usual one.
Hmm, there’s hurricanes, and then there’s hurricanes.

Most hurricanes between Categories 1-3 are glorified thunderstorms overly hyped by the media that will knock your power out for a few days. But a major destructive hurricane impacting Florida is actually a quite rare event, and would likely have more serious repercussions.

Last time Southwest Florida had a real storm surge was 1960 when Collier County had a population of 15,753, Lee County had 54,539, and Charlotte County had 12,594.

As of 2020 those numbers are respectively 375,752, 750,822, 186,847.
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  #43  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:10 AM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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It's been 12 hours since landfall and no news describing Cape Coral's fate.
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  #44  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:12 AM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
When it comes to climate change, Florida has so many slow moving problems happening all at once. It's why I would never ever spend a penny on any property down there.

Yes, this is a one-time event. But it's encapsulating trends in Hurricanes with a changing climate - They are getting stronger.... faster. Also, there's some evidence that they are moving slower as they make landfall. Today is a great example of that. It's one thing to have a cat 4/5 make landfall while moving through at 20-25 mph speed. It's a whole other story when the thing is barely crawling in at 5 mph where you are in the front-right quadrant getting the worst of all worlds. That's exactly what happened to Cape Coral today.

Do I think this one storm will suddenly stop domestic migration from up North? No. But it may give some people a bit of pause. The problems will start to compound if we see more storms like this every year. But that's not it either....... You have sea level rise. In people's mind's, they think it's something that will happen in the future, when completely ignoring the 1/2/3 mm of rise happening every year. This is going to cause increasing problems for drinking water, salt water intrusion, etc. Yes, the Surfside collapse was due to neglect, but saltwater was getting into the building's foundation (from what I recall reading), causing destructive erosion. What will happen if another building were to come down because of neglect? Was Surfside a one-off, or the beginning of a pattern that may reveal itself over the coming years? If there was one old condo tower with neglect, are there others?

Point is - Ian by itself isn't going to reverse any trends, but it is part of a path we are on where slowly things will likely reverse over a very long period of time. How the economics on the ground respond to this, and on what timescale remains to be seen.

Just my two cents.
It's not a one time event. This is 3 major hurricanes in 5 years. It's only going to get worse with global warming.
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  #45  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:21 AM
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This will likely be the first test of Florida's state-backed insurer of last resort though. We'll see if they can pay the bills!
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  #46  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 12:36 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
It's been 12 hours since landfall and no news describing Cape Coral's fate.
18 hours with no news, but google found this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYPzOZnZQOc
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  #47  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 12:39 PM
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I recall visiting Tampa/St-Petersburg a couple of decades ago. The place looked very vulnerable to a full-on hurricane hit. Flat as a pancake, and riddled with bays and channels.
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  #48  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 1:05 PM
wanderer34 wanderer34 is offline
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FL will rebound as always. If Hurricane Andrew back in the 1990's was so devastating, then Miami would've never have grown so large and South FL would've never been as big as it currently is. And FL has always been vulnerable to hurricanes as CA is to earthquakes and TX to AZ is to heat and drought, and those states host large growing populations.

One hurricane isn't the death knell of FL and I wished a lot of posters here stop acting like it's the death of Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and the entire state of FL because of one hurricane!!!
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  #49  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 2:03 PM
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The Lee County sheriff says the number of fatalities is unconfirmed but likely "in the hundreds"

https://thenationaldesk.com/news/ame...ies-death-toll
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  #50  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 2:14 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is online now
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Originally Posted by Randomguy34 View Post
The Lee County sheriff says the number of fatalities is unconfirmed but likely "in the hundreds"

https://thenationaldesk.com/news/ame...ies-death-toll
I would take that with a grain of salt until there’s more corroborating evidence.

Initial casualty estimates for hurricanes often start out high and get reduced by 90-95%. We don’t have a good idea of which neighborhoods flooded yet or how many people stayed. I would say “dozens” is the correct number on the mainland at least.

Last edited by galleyfox; Sep 29, 2022 at 2:27 PM.
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  #51  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 2:25 PM
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I don't get why these folks don't evacuate. It's one thing to feel confident overriding a storm if your on a mountain or high elevation but at near-sea level, playing with risk at that point. Especially with a CAT 4 or 5.
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  #52  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:18 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
I don't get why these folks don't evacuate.
I don't get why people move to Florida to begin with. You've got to drive everywhere. The sunlight is so intense that you can't do much during the day. They should rename it the "hide indoors from the midday sunshine state".
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  #53  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
I don't get why people move to Florida to begin with. You've got to drive everywhere. The sunlight is so intense that you can't do much during the day. They should rename it the "hide indoors from the midday sunshine state".
Don't you have to drive everywhere in most of the USA?
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  #54  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:36 PM
lp198 lp198 is offline
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Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post
One hurricane isn't the death knell of FL and I wished a lot of posters here stop acting like it's the death of Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and the entire state of FL because of one hurricane!!!
I'm a native Miamian, but I think it is disingenuous to suggest that hurricanes are "no big deal" in FL. Each storm inflicts infrastructure crushing damage, totaling billions of dollars that the federal government must kick in each year.

Ian isn't just a storm -- we are looking an extreme devastation across SW FL. One of these storms could very well be the death knell. While western states can "earthquake proof" their infrastructure, FL cannot. Inland cities like Orlando are also facing extreme conditions in the coming hours.

As someone who is deeply invested in the future sustainability of FL, I think that these are important conversations to have.

EDIT: They're estimating fatalities in Fort Myers could reach into the hundreds.
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  #55  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 4:48 PM
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Wishing for the destruction of peoples home is cold hearted, no matter the quality of the house or the political beliefs of the residents.
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  #56  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 5:10 PM
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Damage pics: Spoiler due to size. Looks like a nuke hit some of these areas.




Aerial Footage Shows Unimaginable Flooding In Fort Myers And Surrounding Areas From Hurricane Ian

Video Link
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  #57  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 5:14 PM
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The 100 km stretch from Dana Point south to say La Jolla is where I would retire (assume$ lottery win).

Other than June gloom and occasional fog visits, likely the best climate anywhere on the continent, the last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858... and most of the coast is wall of cliffs that could do a pretty good job of withstanding a tsunami - might lose a few hundred $20 million homes perched along the edge of the cliffs... but they are going to fall into the sea one day anyway (and those folks can afford it).

Assuming you can withstand the 24/7 cacophony of leaf blowers, lawn mowers and weed wackers... it's paradise.

Hell you can body surf with dolphins if you own a very good wet suit.
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  #58  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 5:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Maldive View Post
The 100 km stretch from Dana Point south to say La Jolla is where I would retire (assume$ lottery win).

Other than June gloom and occasional fog visits, likely the best climate anywhere on the continent, the last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858... and most of the coast is wall of cliffs that could do a pretty good job of withstanding a tsunami - might lose a few hundred $20 million homes perched along the edge of the cliffs... but they are going to fall into the sea one day anyway (and those folks can afford it).

Assuming you can withstand the 24/7 cacophony of leaf blowers, lawn mowers and weed wackers... it's paradise.

Hell you can body surf with dolphins if you own a very good wet suit.
Not sure how this is relevant to the topic of this thread, but for the millionth time, 'good weather' is entirely subjective. Some people don't care for the dryness and lack of greenery in Southern California. Also, coastal California has the most expensive real estate in the country, so it's not really comparable to a place like Cape Coral, which is a destination for middle class retirees.

I feel terrible for the people who had their homes destroyed in this storm, but I acknowledge that much of South Florida should have never been developed to the extent it is in the first place. I hope that people will learn from this catastrophe and that the growth in this area will slow.

It will be interesting to see if these anti-tax, anti-government spending folks who gravitate toward places like SW Florida will keep their beliefs now that they're the ones needing aid. I somehow doubt they will...
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  #59  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 5:33 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is online now
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Originally Posted by lp198 View Post
I'm a native Miamian, but I think it is disingenuous to suggest that hurricanes are "no big deal" in FL. Each storm inflicts infrastructure crushing damage, totaling billions of dollars that the federal government must kick in each year.

Ian isn't just a storm -- we are looking an extreme devastation across SW FL. One of these storms could very well be the death knell. While western states can "earthquake proof" their infrastructure, FL cannot. Inland cities like Orlando are also facing extreme conditions in the coming hours.

As someone who is deeply invested in the future sustainability of FL, I think that these are important conversations to have.

EDIT: They're estimating fatalities in Fort Myers could reach into the hundreds.
I really hope this is a misquote. Or the estimates are way off.

Typically I would expect 50-100 deaths from a hurricane like this. The worst Florida hurricanes had hundreds, sometimes over a thousand deaths.

Quote:
President Biden At FEMA HQ - “This could be the deadliest hurricane in Florida's history,” says the numbers are unclear but early reports indicate "substantial loss of life".
https://twitter.com/Breaking_4_News/...8eCHx-1s1uk0zQ
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  #60  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2022, 5:34 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maldive View Post
The 100 km stretch from Dana Point south to say La Jolla is where I would retire (assume$ lottery win).

Other than June gloom and occasional fog visits, likely the best climate anywhere on the continent, the last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858... and most of the coast is wall of cliffs that could do a pretty good job of withstanding a tsunami - might lose a few hundred $20 million homes perched along the edge of the cliffs... but they are going to fall into the sea one day anyway (and those folks can afford it).

Assuming you can withstand the 24/7 cacophony of leaf blowers, lawn mowers and weed wackers... it's paradise.

Hell you can body surf with dolphins if you own a very good wet suit.

IMO the geography to the immediate north (Laguna-Corona Del Mar) is even better. Generally more dramatic scenery and closer access to good airports, services, restaurants and LA.

But yeah, that whole corridor has perfect weather and scenery. And it's basically the anti-FL.
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