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  #4101  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 12:27 AM
N90 N90 is offline
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
From the data that I think you are looking it, the 100K increase in that county is for a three year period, not one year. Other counties in TX also have that amount of increase. I presume they are increasing rapidly because they have the land for SFH and the prices are below average. I think a lot of the increase in many of the fast growing metros, but not all of it, is due to the price of housing being more reasonable compared with the Northeast and West coasts. Of course they are also drawing a lot of new businesses, but housing prices are a big factor. I would say one good example would be Phoenix - I believe in 2000 and 2001, it grew much faster by 80K-90K (I believe), and I suspect that was partially because its housing had barely recovered from the 2008 bust and was very cheap, but now it is no longer cheap and it grew by only 50K. Atlanta is not cheap anymore, and its growth as slowed, and Miami is expensive and it has slow growth. Texas, is becoming more expensive, with Austin being expensive and Dallas becoming expensive, but it has the advantage of being attractive to California and of course those metros can sprawl further out. But it is interesting that San Antonio gained nearly as many people as Austin, and I suspect because it is cheaper. I read somewhere that Houston is now the cheapest metro of the big ones, which is probably bumping up its population increases.
San Antonio has always gained between 40k to 50k people in an average year for the last 15 years. So no, it isn’t gaining as many people as Austin because of its affordability. San Antonio has always been fueled by natural increase, far more births than deaths. And Houston and Atlanta are nearly identical prices for homes in the metro areas BTW. So why did one add 2x the number of people than the other? Because one gets significantly more immigrants every year and is much younger demographically and adds more people by natural increase than the other. Thats the difference. Both are more affordable than DFW and significantly more affordable than Austin, which added 50k people, the usual amount it’s been adding on any average year for the last 15 years.

If affordability was the end all be all then Houston and Atlanta would be growing and adding more people than DFW but they’re not because things like domestic migration, natural increase, immigration, job growth, housing to accommodate new population, etc all go into it and not just one factor by itself.

If affordability was the end all and be all then every major city in the Midwest would outdo major cities in every other region for population growth. But that’s not the case because things like immigration, job growth, housing construction, domestic migration each play a pivotal role in the growth of a place.
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  #4102  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 12:40 AM
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Houston is not that affordable anymore. It has a lot of run down areas driving down average costs but the areas people want to live are getting expensive plus the property taxes and insurance.
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  #4103  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 4:26 AM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Houston is not that affordable anymore. It has a lot of run down areas driving down average costs but the areas people want to live are getting expensive plus the property taxes and insurance.
This just means many of those run down areas are ripe for gentrification.
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #4104  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 6:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
This just means many of those run down areas are ripe for gentrification.
But where will "the gentrified" go? Oklahoma? Louisiana? It's like whack-a-mole.

I haven't been to Houston in a long time, but it was my favorite Texan city back in the day. I had so much fun there. If I had to live in Texas, I'd live in Houston. I guess that's why it's so expensive in the desirable areas?
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  #4105  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 12:25 PM
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Houston is a fantastic city. It gets a lot of hate for things that most cities are guilty of.

Taking emotions out of it, I dare someone to compare affordability of Houston to other major U.S. cities. Housing prices are out of control, but Houston salaries tend to be on the higher side and housing tends to be more affordable.

I always have a laugh when Houston Texans point out that while there is no state income tax, their property taxes are higher when in New Jersey there is a state income tax and their property taxes are highest in the nation. As the kids say today, the math ain’t mathing if making the claim that Houston isn’t that affordable.
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  #4106  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 12:26 PM
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Question to Texas people:

Will Austin and San Antonio ever merge into one mega city or MSA.

I swear the commuting patterns are already there.
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  #4107  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 1:48 PM
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I stuck the 2024 census release Metro estimates into a spreadsheet to come up with the YOY fastest growing large Metros (1M+). Austin was number one in every release from 2011 to 2023. But Austin was dethroned by Jacksonville in the 2024 release.

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Last edited by The ATX; Mar 15, 2024 at 2:41 PM.
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  #4108  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 2:04 PM
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Orlando - Charlotte - San Antonio....all within a few years of the 3 million milestone. Remarkable how closely bunched those 3 are.

That Dallas and Houston are so massive AND rank near the top in growth rate is just, well, stunning.
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  #4109  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 2:31 PM
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Jacksonville is so under radar and it didn't use to be right on the top, specially during the growth bonanza pre-2008.

Phoenix and Las Vegas, on the other hand, used to have insane rates, but since then they have much more normal rates.

Cincinnati is now joining the fast growing Midwest areas.

The most depressing thing about that list it's very few have or are developing an urban lifestyle.
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  #4110  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 5:34 PM
IcedCowboyCoffee IcedCowboyCoffee is offline
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You would imagine with the wild amount of towers going up in downtown Austin that the city's population would be growing more than it seems to be.

For 2022, Travis county, of which the majority of Austin's city limits sits in, grew by 18,682 and the city of Austin proper only grew by 5,104 that year.
We don't have the city estimates for 2023 yet, but this year the entirety of Travis county is up by less than half as much as the previous year, by only 7,411 people. That's +0.56%. If the proportion from last year holds steady that would mean Austin proper barely grew at all.

This is the same trend for the rest of the Texas metros for sure where all the big growth is in the suburbs, but Austin is the one tossing up skyscrapers downtown left and right.
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  #4111  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 5:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee View Post
This is the same trend for the rest of the Texas metros for sure where all the big growth is in the suburbs, but Austin is the one tossing up skyscrapers downtown left and right.
No downtown Austin projects over 300' have broken ground since 2022. All the construction ongoing from 2022 starts might suggest that towers are still breaking ground. Although two 30-stories towers did break ground in 2023 in downtown adjacent West Campus.
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  #4112  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 7:25 PM
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I will say I'm happy to see Columbus, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati doing "well" as this whole eastern Ohio Valley thing can get, well, depressing. And Columbus and Indy mirroring percentage points/net growth is nuts. And Cincinnati, the first major Midwest city, not doing bad is good news to hear. And even crazier...Athens (Ohio) is a top 5 growing Micropolitan Area in the entire country, smack in the middle of Appalachia with no university growth at all (Ohio University lost students since the pandemic). Eat it, Morgantown!
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  #4113  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2024, 8:18 PM
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I like hearing about those cities doing well too. Particularly Cincinnati city proper coming back at the same time as Buffalo after decades of decline.

One of the best ideas Indianapolis had was the Canal Walk. The paddleboat swans is a nice, quirky touch.

I had no idea it even existed until an online friend showed me photos
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  #4114  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2024, 10:39 PM
DCMetroRaleigh DCMetroRaleigh is offline
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Raleigh’s MSA should not be severed from Durham/Chapel-Hill. Ridiculous
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  #4115  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2024, 11:21 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DCMetroRaleigh View Post
Raleigh’s MSA should not be severed from Durham/Chapel-Hill. Ridiculous
Yes, I thought it was one metro and then they separated it to two in 2003 (per Bing), which was weird to me. Bing says that they may combine them again. I would not be surprised for the 2030 census.
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