Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

I'm glad this makes a very specific distinction that is often lost around here - investor driven neighborhoods. As in, not all of Vancouver is driven on momentum and speculation.

The market resurgence you are seeing now is end user, locals looking to buy whats affordable to live in, and that's one and 2 bedroom condos.

Its only at West Van, UBC, Point Grey levels can we start to talk about global capital. There isn't enough people in Canada to afford the houses in the BP's alone. How many Canadians can afford $20 million + homes?

Unfortunately the Vancouver East side is a hub of money laundering, crime, and satellite families. A whole area living in mil+ homes on household incomes of ~$33k. They bring the whole Vancouver average down so that Vancouver shows one of the lowest median incomes in Metro Van. The West side of Van pays all the taxes to subsidize their illegal lifestyles.



http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/docume...0-and-2015.pdf

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Unfortunately the Vancouver East side is a hub of money laundering, crime, and satellite families. A whole area living in mil+ homes on household incomes of ~$33k. They bring the whole Vancouver average down so that Vancouver shows one of the lowest median incomes in Metro Van. The West side of Van pays all the taxes to subsidize their illegal lifestyles.

http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/docume...0-and-2015.pdf

Very humorous, (intentionally or otherwise) but if you make a statement about household income you shouldn't illustrate it with maps of individual income.

The median household income in the city in 2015 was over $65,000, and the average nearly $94,000. Several east side neighbourhoods were above the median. The places with lower median household incomes than the average included the West End, Oakridge and Marpole.

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Very humorous, (intentionally or otherwise) but if you make a statement about household income you shouldn't illustrate it with maps of individual income.

The median household income in the city in 2015 was over $65,000, and the average nearly $94,000. Several east side neighbourhoods were above the median. The places with lower median household incomes than the average included the West End, Oakridge and Marpole.

Hmm point taken.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by nds88

Bank of Canada just cut rates by 0.5% from 1.75% to 1.25%. Hope our variables go down soon

TD passed on most the savings, other banks passed on all the savings.

Either way this just cut 2 years off my amortization period. That's a feel good.

[nds88]

Originally Posted by rofina

TD passed on most the savings, other banks passed on all the savings.

Either way this just cut 2 years off my amortization period. That's a feel good.

Awesome. 2 years off and you will probably get some more appreciation to the price because of this. My bank gave me the full 50bp passed on. How I long for the days of Prime -0.85 and hit a low of 1.90 iirc

[rofina]

Originally Posted by nds88

Awesome. 2 years off and you will probably get some more appreciation to the price because of this. My bank gave me the full 50bp passed on. How I long for the days of Prime -0.85 and hit a low of 1.90 iirc

[nds88]

Originally Posted by rofina

How about the tenants that cancel last months cheque and stay in the whole month anyway? Worse they get is a forfeit of a damage deposit, which automatically gets them 50% ahead.

This happens, but for me its usually a bounced cheque....no money in their account

[misher]

1st week of March done.
@REBGV
continues strong apt resurgence. Will likely crack 1500 sales, big jump from March 2019's 872 sales.

https://mobile.twitter.com/rwittstoc...42041263239168

This would be a 50% increase from Feb2020.

[misher]

Interestingly Pavlov proposed that with the BC economy slowing and the province projected to see a large deficit we should roll back real estate taxes and let out traditional economic booster loose. Of course he’s generally been critical of the NDP recently.

[TheTerminalCity]

Originally Posted by misher

Interestingly Pavlov proposed that with the BC economy slowing and the province projected to see a large deficit we should roll back real estate taxes and let out traditional economic booster loose. Of course he’s generally been critical of the NDP recently.

What deficit are you talking about? Is this just more self-fulfilment? Even the National Post says BC is projecting $227 million next year. At least back up claims with a source

[misher]

Originally Posted by TheTerminalCity

What deficit are you talking about? Is this just more self-fulfilment? Even the National Post says BC is projecting $227 million next year. At least back up claims with a source

Don’t need a source when it’s obvious and being talked about regularly. Our budget was made before we entered a half recession.

How can you expect a surplus when the economy is tanking.

[TheTerminalCity]

Originally Posted by misher

Don’t need a source when it’s obvious and being talked about regularly. Our budget was made before we entered a half recession.

How can you expect a surplus when the economy is tanking.

So, no source. Got it

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Don’t need a source when it’s obvious and being talked about regularly. Our budget was made before we entered a half recession.

How can you expect a surplus when the economy is tanking.

Believe me folks!

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by misher

Interestingly Pavlov proposed that with the BC economy slowing and the province projected to see a large deficit we should roll back real estate taxes and let out traditional economic booster loose. Of course he’s generally been critical of the NDP recently.

Hm; we're "projected to see a large deficit" (source: Prof Misher) and a free-market libertarian SFU Professor of Finance suggests reducing taxes so that the deficit would be even greater. Genius!

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by misher

https://mobile.twitter.com/rwittstoc...42041263239168

This would be a 50% increase from Feb2020.

Something tells me that the spring market this year, the hottest time of the year for buying, is going to tank this year...Open houses? People making big investment decisions? Condo launches here or overseas? During the spread of the Coronavirus? Yeah right.

[misher]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Something tells me that the spring market this year, the hottest time of the year for buying, is going to tank this year...Open houses? People making big investment decisions? Condo launches here or overseas? During the spread of the Coronavirus? Yeah right.

Historically the last SARS virus didn’t stop it. But yes who knows.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

Historically the last SARS virus didn’t stop it. But yes who knows.

This ain't SARS bro.

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

This ain't SARS bro.

We can only use precedents to judge what will happen when a similar event happens.

Last time interest rates were cut, last time a disease panic happened, etc.
Precedents are saying real estate will boom in Vancouver. I cannot speak for the rest of Canada.

That being said, the world economy is slowing and I do not know if the past precedents will hold true this time around.

We can only guess. People said that Vancouver prices would go to half after the stress test and after the FBT. The luxury market may have come down some but prices have not really budgeted on average.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by misher

We can only use precedents to judge what will happen when a similar event happens.

Last time interest rates were cut, last time a disease panic happened, etc.
Precedents are saying real estate will boom in Vancouver. I cannot speak for the rest of Canada.

That being said, the world economy is slowing and I do not know if the past precedents will hold true this time around.

We can only guess. People said that Vancouver prices would go to half after the stress test and after the FBT. The luxury market may have come down some but prices have not really budgeted on average.

I don't think you're referring to anything that would be considered a 'precedent' for the situation we're now in.

[WarrenC12]

Any sane person is putting home buying on the back burner right now.