Coronavirus - Phoenix discussion

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by xymox

No - you won't.

The order specifically says that you are not expected to give anyone a reason as to why you are out of your house.

The idea that the police have anything to enforce here is silly.

We won't even approach martial law - there's no legal or constitutional basis for such a thing in our situation. The president may only declare it with congressional approval for two reasons: rebellion and invasion.

If they had a legal basis to do this - they would have federally locked down the NYC area this weekend.

It boggles the mind why so many people jump to wanting to be controlled like that by the federal gov't. Have you read about how it would actually work? Its not something I would hope to ever see this country fall into because we won't emerge out of it the same.

As I tell many people, even if they wanted to "enforce" a lock-down more aggressively they more or less cannot.

People tend to vastly overestimate the capabilities of government. Too many movies I guess.

Even if every reservist, active military, federal employee (including old fat desk workers) and local police/state police officer were to be on board (without desertions) that gives the "government" about 4 million bodies to lock down the remaining 325 million people in the US.

LOL good luck 81 to 1 ratio.

[biggus diggus]

Fun observation today.

I take the same drive to work every day. I turn south on 7th Ave from State and head all the way down to Roosevelt. That's gotta be about 5-6 miles. For the past two weeks I have noticed relatively no traffic, but today felt like many times more cars on the road. I think people don't care about staying at home.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

Being required to provide proof is different from asking "what are you doing" and self incriminate. There absolutely is precedence, though the police are not focusing on it. I'm California, Illinois, and New York people have been cited for ignoring the stay at home order. My guess is that here will be different but to write it off as impossible is a little stubborn in my mind.

But self incriminate yourself against what exactly?

The people being cited out of state are going into parks that were explicitly closed or doing things like that. A case where the state explicitly closed them - and the locality allows fines to be applied for violating such situation.

Now if localities here started passing ordinances that would allow the police to ticket people and hit them with fines - that’s one thing. But any city council personal that votes like that will likely find themselves out of work come elections this fall.

Besides - the police have larger concerns that keeping track of where we are all going right now. I’d much prefer to have them making sure that social unrest and looting doesn’t take a hold anywhere - rather than ticketing a neighbor who passed me within 2 ft on the 3ft wide sidewalk during my morning walk.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

Fun observation today.

I take the same drive to work every day. I turn south on 7th Ave from State and head all the way down to Roosevelt. That's gotta be about 5-6 miles. For the past two weeks I have noticed relatively no traffic, but today felt like many times more cars on the road. I think people don't care about staying at home.

Interesting. I rode my bike this morning to and from the Uptown Farmers Market, which has relocated to Bethany Bible Church on 7th Ave just north of Bethany Home Road. Most of my ride was via Maryland Avenue and Rose Lane, and my crossing of 7th Ave was the easiest ever. As we’ve discussed before, I’m not a lane-claiming vehicular cyclist, but today it felt fine to briefly ride on 7th Ave between Rose and Berridge. I wish it could be like that all the time, albeit for better reasons.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Interesting. I rode my bike this morning to and from the Uptown Farmers Market, which has relocated to Bethany Bible Church on 7th Ave just north of Bethany Home Road. Most of my ride was via Maryland Avenue and Rose Lane, and my crossing of 7th Ave was the easiest ever. As we’ve discussed before, I’m not a lane-claiming vehicular cyclist, but today it felt fine to briefly ride on 7th Ave between Rose and Berridge. I wish it could be like that all the time, albeit for better reasons.

It was empty downtown for me as well (went grocery shopping, with a drive down Roosevelt, McDowell, and 7th Ave). Ghost. Town. The stores were largely empty, and the shelves are beginning to fill again (not with toilet paper, although I don't understand why folks use so much).

Personally, I think Trump's screw up was just a matter of gutting expertise for the sake of claiming some sort of weird "win." That has bitten us in the ass, and will cost lives. As for his bizarre press conferences--he just misses his safe space rallies, and he is just filling the time. I don't watch him because I would never, ever go to a political rally. I actually watch Governor Cuomo's daily briefings to see him patiently explain stuff. It's fascinating, and I think he's having a serious leadership moment. As far as Ducey...meh. He seems to be doing OK, and this last order just seems like a ratchet up. More will come. Time will tell if our Arizona yahooliganism gets more of us killed. Same with 'Muricans. Trump will be judged on both the lack of preparation and how people perceive his reality show schtick. I expect some will love him, and many won't, but that's just a guess.

Stay safe and distant, gentlemen. I want to see you all arguing about these things through the summer. Please.

[Obadno]

Trying to blame a pandemic on political decisions is just not realistic.

I understand people want to "blame" but the truth is its only a matter of time that some sort of plague would one day due to laws of averages and evolution, beat our modern defenses and cause a pandemic. It happens over and over and over again in the human experience and it will happen again in the future.

There are countless predictions and movies and stories out there about the potential risk of a coronavirus from central china spreading and becoming a pandemic. The world has had several close calls. This time unfortunately we weren't so lucky.

Prepping for some unknowable possibility before hand? Could that have stopped this? Maybe, I suppose if we happened to just guess out of the dark exactly what this particular virus would need without knowing it existed at the time.... sure if we were impossibly lucky.

The reality is it does not matter who is president, all of the action would have been generally the same because its been outlined in dust covered playbooks sitting in various federal departments written decades ago based on hypotheticals and the recommendation of academic experts.

Look around the world, nobody is doing better. Poor countries have no way to test or get a handle of their outbreaks, some countries are actively doing nothing like Sweden and Mexico. Some are lying like China, but nobody is doing particularly well except for it seems like South Korea.

Per capita we are doing quite well compared to most, on par with Germany

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Trying to blame a pandemic on political decisions is just not realistic.

I understand people want to "blame" but the truth is its only a matter of time that some sort of plague would one day due to laws of averages and evolution, beat our modern defenses and cause a pandemic. It happens over and over and over again in the human experience and it will happen again in the future.

I'm not blaming him for the optics, but the buck stops on Trump's desk on the enormous power that is invested in him from Article II of the Constitution. He's made a few good decisions, and a lot of crappy, consequential ones. Trump was warned by Bill Gates this was coming in Trump Tower in 2016. Trump didn't prepare for this for the past 3.5 years (his job, BTW, is to prepare the people he commands for this, and to prepare Americans for potential hardships). There are a number of things that might be really bad, but I have yet to see if the Pandemic group he disbanded and the Playbook he lost in storage were any better than what we have now--we need an autopsy to say for sure, but it currently looks bad. We all saw Trump publicly going through the stages of grief ("fifteen cases, which will go to zero," and "magically go away"), which lost us important time. You can call these "political decisions," but they are actually just "decisions," and, yes, they have consequences. D-Day was also a "political decision," as was "dropping the atomic bombs." I'm not arguing optics, but choices, and my judgment matters infinitely less than what we all experience personally over the next period of hardship. If it gets way better, and quickly, then we'll all breathe a sigh of relief (and, trust me, I will breathe a HUGE sigh of relief). If it gets as bad as I think, then we will be talking about how to transition to a new administration in the midst of this period of difficulty. Time will tell.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by DesertRay

Trump was warned by Bill Gates this was coming in Trump Tower in 2016. Trump didn't prepare for this for the past 3.5 years

Dude what? Bill gates among many others have been talking about the potential of pandemics for decades, but what do you honestly think should have been done?

Could you imagine if Bush or Obama or Trump at any point before this spring had started blabbering about a potential virus from Asia that didn't exist and demanding we ...what? Make field hospitals? Thats insane.

Every day potential plagues come on to the scene and 99% of them never amount to anything because of luck or because we have modern medical technology but eventually some will get through given time. We cant completely fixate on this and alter our whole life because of the risk of a once in a century pandemic, it isn't reasonable.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Dude what? Bill gates among many others have been talking about the potential of pandemics for decades, but what do you honestly think should have been done?

Could you imagine if Bush or Obama or Trump at any point before this spring had started blabbering about a potential virus from Asia that didn't exist and demanding we ...what? Make field hospitals? Thats insane.

Every day potential plagues come on to the scene and 99% of them never amount to anything because of luck or because we have modern medical technology but eventually some will get through given time. We cant completely fixate on this and alter our whole life because of the risk of a once in a century pandemic, it isn't reasonable.

Bill Gates did his TED talk on this subject in 2015, and told Trump at Trump Tower in 2016 after the election about this exact thing. Not decades.

We did things about other virus outbreaks. The expertise and plans were executed, and the crisis was averted. The systems exist, and need both resources and global cooperation. That's how we stopped SARS, Ebola, etc. We actually eradicated smallpox and other scourges this way. Sandia Labs and Los Alamos developed a playbook for this (disclosure: I worked with these folks years ago), but it got shelved. These are the same labs who built the bomb. Really smart people. This playbook was shelved, the CDC funding was cut, and the global cooperation was systematically smashed during trade-war-o-rama. That doesn't even start to address the way that he panders to anti-vaccine kooks.

So, Trump screwed up our global cooperation, lost the playbook, reduced funding for the Centers for Disease Control, disbanded the Pandemic team, and kept dithering about taking action on a virus that was already killing thousands, and that every epidemiologist knew was already on our shores.

Don't distract with the field hospitals thing. It takes time to get the effort going, and wasted months mean that we lost the chance to nip it in the bud, and we still don't even know what the hell is happening as the death toll accelerates. I have a family member who runs logistics in one of the military central commands, and it takes months just to get equipment to a battlefield. Trump should just appoint a general, and be done with his helpless puppet show. Time for the adults to be in charge.

And, yes, we have to fixate on something that could kill millions of Americans if we just pretend it doesn't matter. That's what to fixate on. Focus, sir. Focus.

[gymratmanaz]

DesertRay - I so agree with you!!!!!! You said what is true!!!!

[Obadno]

I know Bill Gates has been worried about Pandemics, not since 2015 for decades, so have many others. Thats why the CDC exists.

We stopped SARS and Ebola because of some Los Alamos plan big evil trump forced the National Laboratory to tear up?? I dont think so. What kind of lunacy are you spewing, both SARS and EBOLA ended themselves, and really this is another version of SARS but thankfully less deadly. If we had a vaccine like smallpox we could work on eradicating this.

"If only we had XYZ politician they'd have fixed this! ! They'd know what to do!"

1. That is unknowable irrational conjecture.

2. If you honestly believe Trump or anyone else would drastically have altered the course and our reactions to this you have a complete misunderstanding of the president as a job function and its capabilities and scope.

3. Its time you learn that nobody will ever save you from these kinds of things, you were always on your own. You are probably much to old to learn that lesson.

I know this is not the type of forum that is likely to agree with these realities. But its true. Your faith in the states abilities are completely unrealistic and quite honestly naive for adults.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I know Bill Gates has been worried about Pandemics, not since 2015 for decades, so have many others. Thats why the CDC exists.

We stopped SARS and Ebola because of some Los Alamos plan big evil trump forced the National Laboratory to tear up?? I dont think so. What kind of lunacy are you spewing, both SARS and EBOLA ended themselves, and really this is another version of SARS but thankfully less deadly. If we had a vaccine like smallpox we could work on eradicating this.

"If only we had XYZ politician they'd have fixed this! ! They'd know what to do!"

1. That is unknowable irrational conjecture.

2. If you honestly believe Trump or anyone else would drastically have altered the course and our reactions to this you have a complete misunderstanding of the president as a job function and its capabilities and scope.

3. Its time you learn that nobody will ever save you from these kinds of things, you were always on your own. You are probably much to old to learn that lesson.

I know this is not the type of forum that is likely to agree with these realities. But its true. Your faith in the states abilities are completely unrealistic and quite honestly naive for adults.

I didn't say any politician would fix this. That would be naive, which is why I didn't say it. I listed a lot of factual things that the Trump administration did to degrade the system we had to address potential pandemics. The system included things like using experts at the National Labs who split atoms, built bombs, and helped us win WWII. It included a Pandemic team what was disbanded, and a Center for Disease Control that had its funding continually slashed. While this administration was reforming Homeland Security to focus on "WALL," it steadily degraded our ability to address outbreaks that we addressed during past administrations. You can live in denial because it is more painful to admit that people in the government can actually address things beyond just shooting and bombing, but it's true. I can list an entire encyclopedia of things that capable government efforts have accomplished with the consent of the people. Seriously. I worked with some of these folks.

By the way, I'm a Registered Republican, and generally dislike bureaucracies, but I have a lot of family in the military, and I know for a fact how effective we can be with some organization and competence. It's how we have won two World Wars, eradicated some of the worst diseases, and have built a more prosperous world. Seriously. You should get to know how much better the world is now than it was in 1918 the last time we had a global pandemic. It was coordinated national and international efforts (government with the consent of the people) that made a big difference. People did all of the work, and competent government coordinated it when necessary. History books are full of these successes. I'm sorry you don't know about them.

[biggus diggus]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Trying to blame a pandemic on political decisions is just not realistic.

Thank you. I'm losing my mind here reading articles from CNN basically not caring about anything except making Trump look bad and articles from Fox basically not caring about anything except making Trump look good.

This is bigger than your political opinions.

People want to blame things on other people, it's unfortunately human nature. There is no one person responsible for this, not even that one guy who ate an under-cooked bat.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

There is no one person responsible for this, not even that one guy who ate an under-cooked bat.

It’s all Ozzy Osbourne’s fault: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ines/79055858/

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

Thank you. I'm losing my mind here reading articles from CNN basically not caring about anything except making Trump look bad and articles from Fox basically not caring about anything except making Trump look good.

This is bigger than your political opinions.

People want to blame things on other people, it's unfortunately human nature. There is no one person responsible for this, not even that one guy who ate an under-cooked bat.

Well, I totally agree that reading or listening to the news is nuts. I mostly read the data sites.

As far as evaluating a particular POTUS, it's just what I do with my employees. I only evaluate what they do vs. they could have reasonably done. Since we are all POTUS' boss, we'll all get to do that in November. I'm just sharing my early review. Subject to revision as more data comes in.

[biggus diggus]

Everyone's an expert in hindsight.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by DesertRay

I didn't say any politician would fix this. That would be naive, which is why I didn't say it. I listed a lot of factual things that the Trump administration did to degrade the system we had to address potential pandemics. The system included things like using experts at the National Labs who split atoms, built bombs, and helped us win WWII. It included a Pandemic team what was disbanded, and a Center for Disease Control that had its funding continually slashed. While this administration was reforming Homeland Security to focus on "WALL," it steadily degraded our ability to address outbreaks that we addressed during past administrations. You can live in denial because it is more painful to admit that people in the government can actually address things beyond just shooting and bombing, but it's true. I can list an entire encyclopedia of things that capable government efforts have accomplished with the consent of the people. Seriously. I worked with some of these folks.

By the way, I'm a Registered Republican, and generally dislike bureaucracies, but I have a lot of family in the military, and I know for a fact how effective we can be with some organization and competence. It's how we have won two World Wars, eradicated some of the worst diseases, and have built a more prosperous world. Seriously. You should get to know how much better the world is now than it was in 1918 the last time we had a global pandemic. It was coordinated national and international efforts (government with the consent of the people) that made a big difference. People did all of the work, and competent government coordinated it when necessary. History books are full of these successes. I'm sorry you don't know about them.

Lets address some nonsense in your post.

1. Nuclear scientists are not epidemiologists. Being an expert in one field does not make you an expert in all.

2. Claiming cut funding of the CDC consequentially caused the pandemic is not a valid argument. You cannot prove such a claim, one does not follow the other.

Let me demonstrate:

If we cut funding to the DOD will war breakout across the world?

If we cut funding to the Department of education will kids stop getting an education?

Did we literally eliminate the CDC? was all previous work and plans on pandemics shredded and burned because some recent funding was reallocated? Do you really think a advisory board about pandemics within the CDC would have actually made the difference in this global pandemic? That those few dollars, and meetings and preparedness advisories would have stopped a highly contagious novel virus with a long incubation period?

Is knowledge eliminated if the group that put it together is now gone? Like if we had a written plan and then our funding got cut does that plan vanish?

What was the alleged plan of this "pandemic" team? To nuke Wuhan back on January 3rd? To lock down the country at the first hint of a virus of unknowable deadliness and transmissibity appeared in china?

I doubt it. Unless it did I dont see how it could have saved us. I dont know why you would assume changes in budget directly correlate to effectiveness or preparedness.

I dont know how you can logically conclude that less funding axiomatically means less effectiveness and less preparedness.

[DesertRay]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Lets address some nonsense in your post.

1. Nuclear scientists are not epidemiologists. Being an expert in one field does not make you an expert in all.

2. Claiming cut funding of the CDC consequentially caused the pandemic is not a valid argument. You cannot prove such a claim, one does not follow the other.

Let me demonstrate:

If we cut funding to the DOD will war breakout across the world?

If we cut funding to the Department of education will kids stop getting an education?

Did we literally eliminate the CDC? was all previous work and plans on pandemics shredded and burned because some recent funding was reallocated? Do you really think a advisory board about pandemics within the CDC would have actually made the difference in this global pandemic? That those few dollars, and meetings and preparedness advisories would have stopped a highly contagious novel virus with a long incubation period?

Is knowledge eliminated if the group that put it together is now gone? Like if we had a written plan and then our funding got cut does that plan vanish?

What was the alleged plan of this "pandemic" team? To nuke Wuhan back on January 3rd? To lock down the country at the first hint of a virus of unknowable deadliness and transmissibity appeared in china?

I doubt it. Unless it did I dont see how it could have saved us. I dont know why you would assume changes in budget directly correlate to effectiveness or preparedness.

I dont know how you can logically conclude that less funding axiomatically means less effectiveness and less preparedness.

Jeebus, you don't do research. The Los Alamos/Sandia team was a group of scientists that included epidemiologists and other scientists who deal with these complex events (mathematicians, etc.).

Trump reduced funding for the CDC. Trump admin shuttered the pandemic team. It redirected efforts to deal with global threats to build a border fence to win reelection. Trump publicly opined about it magically going away while we did nothing. We lost our focus, and are now desperately trying to get it back while Americans die.

Do some research. It's out there. Stop hyperventilating to defend your confirmation bias. I'm willing to take in data and revise. I'm a Republican. I'm citing historical precedent. Get a grip.

[biggus diggus]

Do you think Trump shutting down the pandemic team is the reason an incredibly contagious virus made it here? Do you think Trump being blase really had anything to do with what the people who are actually making decisions did?

Put down CNN and stop trying to blame one person for a virus. The same thing is happening all over the world.

[fawd]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I dont know how you can logically conclude that less funding axiomatically means less effectiveness and less preparedness.

You're not going to win this one.

His opinions are based on years of robust research, data, and facts...

Your opinions are clearly made up and not based in reality... lol