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  #281  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 7:30 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
I'll add my standard caveat that these numbers might not be apples-to-apples.

Colliers says my city has 80,000,000 sf of office, while CoStar says it has 215,000,000 sf -- amost a 1:3 ratio.

They have different standards and levels of effort in different cities, even within one firm.
well Colliers is headquartered in Toronto, so they better have the correct data for their home city
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  #282  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 7:46 PM
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
interesting video about buying condos in Vaughn, Ontario:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhu1LtxWswc

some comments:

haha..this market is crying out for derivatives trading. I'd like some $1000/sq foot puts in the Vaughn submarket please.


Man, you actually went and looked for this?
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  #283  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 7:47 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post


Man, you actually went and looked for this?
Welcome to VAUGHAN: Canada's Anaheim
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  #284  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 7:55 PM
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Toronto rates in the Top 5 on just about every bubble list issued by investment banks. Anyone that thinks there isn't a whole lot of mischief going on or this is a normal real estate cycle is deluding themselves.

However the US has a long history of speculative overbuilding. It's common for rental construction to take off with vacancies well above ten percent and some markets have office booms above 20%. New office parks built on the edge of the urban area while office parks build on the edge 10 to 20 years ago are darkened.

The office market has tanked due to Covid in Toronto. That shouldn't come as any surprise. Only 30% of the workforce has returned to the daily commute. Another sign that this may not be temporary is from the CEO of CIBC who recently stated that continued remote working will be bad for business. I always find to bet on the opposite of his opinion. CIBC signing long term leases for a shiny new consolidated head office was likely on his mind too.
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  #285  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 7:57 PM
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Quote:
who recently stated that continued remote working will be bad for business
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  #286  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 8:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
interesting video about buying condos in Vaughn, Ontario:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhu1LtxWswc

some comments:







haha..this market is crying out for derivatives trading. I'd like some $1000/sq foot puts in the Vaughn submarket please.
Yeah, social media isn't the home of the preposterous. There's a lot more reality based straws to grasp and post than a video from one of the 100,000 agents in the city.
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  #287  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:10 PM
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I'm merely pointing out some interesting differentiators between Toronto and high-growth US metros like Dallas. Why is this considered hostility to Toronto/Canada?

I doubt retail investors are buying 4-6 pre-construction condos in Plano, TX apartment buildings, I'll tell you that, even as 40-50,000 multifamily units are constantly under construction in Dallas/Ft Worth

As I said, Vancouver and Toronto represents a new Dubai-like paradigm for property investment in North America. this is just a comment, not a value judgment (Dubai has lots of skyscrapers, you may have noticed)

WINNING IN THE CONDO MARKET WITH NEGATIVE CASH FLOW

Quote:
The rewards associated with cash-flow positive condos are clear. They put extra money in your pocket each month. The benefits of buying a unit with negative cash flow are less obvious—and it comes with some risks. If market conditions don’t go your way, you may never see the kind of returns you’re hoping for. And if you lose a separate source of income (due to a job layoff or because another investment takes a nosedive), the costs of maintaining the property could lead to financial strain.

That said, there are a couple of big reasons why some investors are willing to take on the risks of a cash-flow negative property. Namely: impressive sale profits or a fantastic rental income down the line.

While it’s true that nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen in the Toronto market, educated guesses can sometimes pay off. Using factors like historical appreciation rates and projected neighbourhood price growth, investors can estimate how much their cash-flow negative condo will be worth in a few years. Of course, it’s important to note that this is speculating—and it can be risky. That said, if you see a strong possibility for future capital growth (and interest rates aren’t slated to rise), you could be looking at a great investment.

If your end goal is to make money by renting out your unit, there are other factors you’ll want to look at. What’s the local rental market like? How much are landlords charging for condos in nearby buildings like yours? Is there strong job growth in the area? Is the community becoming a popular “it” destination? If you can accurately assess the situation, you’ll make a wiser (and more potentially profitable) investment.

Pre-Construction Condo Buying & Negative Cash Flow
Let’s say you find a pre-construction project that you’re interested in, that’s located in a hot neighbourhood. Not only is the location great, but it boasts fantastic features and amenities. There’s only one issue: it’s projected to be cash-flow negative. When you’re trying to decide whether or not to buy it, consider this. Every real estate investment comes with some risk.

Right now, you’ll find a lot of projected cash-flow negative properties in prime locations. Liberty Village for example. Liberty Market Tower, to be even more specific. Is purchasing a unit in an area like that really a bigger risk than buying one with positive cash flow in the middle of nowhere? Many investors don’t think so. They’re snapping up good pre-construction units the minute they’re available, with the expectation that rents will rise (perhaps slowly) while mortgage rates stay the same. And think about the appreciation in value – THAT’s the key here.
From 2017: price appreciation overcomes negative rental cash flow

Quote:
About half of the newly completed condos in the GTA last year were bought as rental investments and these investors likely realized a return of about 155 per cent before closing costs

Nearly half of all investors who bought condominiums completed in the Toronto area last year aren’t making enough rent to cover their holding costs, despite chalking up exceptional gains on the value of their properties, a new study finds.

No less than 44 per cent of investors who took possession of new units in 2017 were in negative cash flow — that is their rental income fell short of the amount needed to cover their mortgage payments and condominium fees, according to the study by CIBC and Urbanation, a market analysis firm.

Though 45 per cent of those investors were short by less than $500 per month, another 20 per cent were short between $500 and $1,000 per month. And 34.5 per cent were in the hole for more than $1,000 per month.

“We know now that many of them are in negative cash flow, but they also made very nice money on their investment,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.
Quote:
Investors who bought condominiums for the purpose of renting accounted for 48 per cent of all newly completed units in the Greater Toronto Area in 2017. The resale price of those units – most of which were bought between 2011 and 2013, before the market boomed – was an average $817 per square foot in 2017, up 51 per cent from their average pre-sale price of $541 per square foot. An average of five years elapsed between when the units were pre-sold — or purchased from the developer ahead of construction — and when they were completed.
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  #288  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:21 PM
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probably because Vaughan with it's (less than 4 year old) subway stop/multi-modal facility with a direct connection to downtown Toronto and median housing price of $1.2M (CAD) is a tad more valuable than Plano lol
I don't think Plano is building 20,30+ storey condo towers en masse.

personally I find Vaughan to be boring and generic AF, the only redeeming quality is it's home to the largest theme park in Canada, Canada's Wonderland lol
that and it contains 95M sq ft of (mostly light) industrial space.

But it is still growing quite quickly (est. pop 340+k) now that it has direct subway access to downtown Toronto. With high growth rates and property values comes high speculation by vultures.
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  #289  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
probably because Vaughan with it's (less than 4 year old) subway stop/multi-modal facility with a direct connection to downtown Toronto and median housing price of $1.2M (CAD) is a tad more valuable than Plano lol
I don't think Plano is building 20,30+ storey condo towers en masse.

personally I find Vaughan to be boring and generic AF, the only redeeming quality is it's home to the largest theme park in Canada, Canada's Wonderland lol
that and it contains 95M sq ft of (mostly light) industrial space.

But it is still growing quite quickly (est. pop 330+k) now that it has direct subway access to downtown Toronto. With high growth rates and property values comes high speculation by vultures.
Vaughn and Plano seem pretty evenly matched... Not sure what the condescension is about, lol. Plano added more than 160k residents between 1990 and 2020, and Vaughn is on track to add about 200k since 1991. Plano is much denser than Vaughn, though. Plano should probably be furiously building towers too if it wants to continue growing.
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  #290  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:51 PM
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Vaughn is a more downscale, but more transit-oriented, version of Plano. They both suck.

Both Dallas and Toronto have some of the least attractive suburbs in North America, IMO. Very few prewar enclaves, very little interesting scenery, lots of giant treeless arterials with powerlines and huge SimCity housing developments.
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  #291  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nite View Post
(...)
And finally here is his work of Downtown Toronto after all current construction and proposals are done


https://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread....27943/page-15
That's very impressive. It will look like a Brazilian city, but with taller buildings.
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  #292  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
That's very impressive. It will look like a Brazilian city, but with taller buildings.
So it'll look like a vertical slum, but more vertical?
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  #293  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:58 PM
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
So it'll look like a vertical slum, but more vertical?
In a colourless, low-detail rendering, absolutely.
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  #294  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 9:58 PM
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
So it'll look like a vertical slum, but more vertical?
Yuri is from Brazil, just so you know
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  #295  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 10:32 PM
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Originally Posted by jbermingham123 View Post
Yuri is from Brazil, just so you know
He knows. He has this creepy obsession and stalk me to every single thread, regardless the subject... I barely notice anymore...

In fact he has no opinion whatsoever about Brazil. I guess he assumes I'll be offended by him implying people here are poor and therefore live in shacks just because I happen to live here.

It's not only childish to make racist remarks about an entire country just because you don't like someone "from the internet", but also completely gross to attack poor people on the grounds they are poor.

I assume it's some medical condition, a psychiatric disorder.
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  #296  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
He knows. He has this creepy obsession and stalk me to every single thread, regardless the subject... I barely notice anymore...

In fact he has no opinion whatsoever about Brazil. I guess he assumes I'll be offended by him implying people here a poor and therefore live in shacks just because I happen to live here.

It's not only childish to make racist remarks about an entire country just because you don't like someone "from the internet", but also completely gross to attack poor people on the grounds they are poor.
lolwut. Calm your tits bro.
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  #297  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
In a colourless, low-detail rendering, absolutely.
I meant as a compliment. When I was a teen, I adored that classic American pattern, few big tall buildings Downtown surrounded by kilometers of SFH.

Years past and I've grown to like other urban typologies and I definitely prefer São Paulo's density to the classical US pattern. I'd welcome some taller buildings here though.

Not in love by the glass towers of Toronto, Vancouver or Miami but I guess they'll make those cities much more dense and vibrant.
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  #298  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 10:47 PM
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Ugh bad runner your attitude is too harsh
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  #299  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 10:57 PM
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Ugh bad runner your attitude is too harsh
Is there some unwritten forum rule where you are not allowed to make an observation or even give an opinion if it will cause some emotionally stunted forumer to throw a temper tantrum and start lobbing wild accusations and personal insults?

Read my post again. Then read Yuri's response. Who is in violation of forum rules here?
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  #300  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2021, 11:00 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Vaughn is a more downscale, but more transit-oriented, version of Plano.
Is it really that transit-oriented? I'll take your word for it. I haven't been to Vaughn since the late-90s, but back then it seemed about as transit-oriented as Madison Heights lol.
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