Green Line LRT - $4.6 Billion Project

[MalcolmTucker]

When will we have more certainty? We don’t have certainty on that!

What we are certain of is geometry. There are only so many lanes into downtown. Only so many places to park once there. Only so many ways to add the equivalent of a 4 lane Deerfoot that will eventually connect two hospitals with downtown and the Stampede facilities. Even if downtown is diminished forever that doesn’t change that the Greenline will connect a lot of places very efficiently and that Calgary will continue to grow.

[Pegasus]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

When will we have more certainty? We don’t have certainty on that!

What we are certain of is geometry. There are only so many lanes into downtown. Only so many places to park once there. Only so many ways to add the equivalent of a 4 lane Deerfoot that will eventually connect two hospitals with downtown and the Stampede facilities. Even if downtown is diminished forever that doesn’t change that the Greenline will connect a lot of places very efficiently and that Calgary will continue to grow.

Looking at all three levels of government (municipal, provincial, federal):

• Revenues down (property taxes, personal taxes, corporate taxes, resource income, operating revenue, fines, etc. etc)
• Expenditures up (financial assistance to individuals and businesses, unemployment insurance, health care costs, debt financing, etc)
• Economy shrunk (many businesses will either shrink or will not be able to operate at all in the "new normal" - airlines and travel, restaurants, hospitality, retail). This will create some jobs but many more will be lost.

What does the future look like? Will "social distancing" continue to be required in shops, restaurants and transportation? Will there be a "second wave"? Will there be a vaccine (that provides prolonged immunity) or a cure? Will energy prices and demand recover? Will workers return to downtown in large numbers? Will employment return to previous levels? Will travel return to previous levels (business and leisure)?

So if we are going to run up even more debt do we focus on capital projects that may not be needed in the short to medium term that create short-term construction jobs, or invest in projects that create long-term jobs and wealth (the province has been talking about diversifying the economy for as long as I can remember -certainly since the time of Peter Lougheed).

Yes I'm stating the obvious but isn't it also obvious (apparently to the majority of Calgarians who responded to the poll) that now is not the time to make decisions on major infrastructure projects. There may be better ways to spend more debt.

Perhaps in six or nine months everything will return to normal . . . or perhaps it won't! Keep planning by all means, but major investment decisions should wait until we have a better idea of what the "new" future might look like. The "new normal" may be very different to what we were used to.

[MalcolmTucker]

So if we are going to run up even more debt do we focus on capital projects that may not be needed in the short to medium term that create short-term construction jobs, or invest in projects that create long-term jobs and wealth (the province has been talking about diversifying the economy for as long as I can remember -certainly since the time of Peter Lougheed).

Why not both?
And this project's first phase will be done in what ... 6 years at best?
Even under the worse case scenarios we will be past this by then, no matter the end results.


There are lots of things we could cancel. None of it is a good idea.



And sweet jesus, the new normal isn't about for the future for the next 100 years. It is about the next 6 months. Gotta take the long view. We will trend back towards our long term societal norms with specific interventions which are different.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Pegasus

So, your personal opinion rates higher than that of 2,379 of your fellow citizens? The arrogance leaves me speechless!!

I am not suggesting cancelling - just deferring a decision until there is more certainty (and this is what the CTV poll was asking).

This pandemic will last many more months, perhaps even years. Furthermore, will downtown employment ever return to previous levels? There is no certainty Calgary will see employment levels enjoyed after previous downturns, and even if it does, working from home is proving to be very effective in the energy patch.

Good thing I'm not in power then, and neither are the respondents to that poll.

Deferring is as good as cancelling. That'll leave the project open to the funding being pulled at provincial and federal level, then the funding at municipal level will probably be reallocated. And even if that doesn't happen, when you eventually come to restart a load of the work will likely be redone, and it's likely the bids coming in for work will be less competitive because they'll want more certainty the city actually holds up its end.

If it turns out the green line truly isn't needed, then that would mean Calgary had gone downhill hard with declining population. In that scenario, not having built the green line is hardly going to have changed the fundamental problems.

[PPAR]

This debate really brings into focus the change I have observed in Calgary over the last two or three years. It feels almost as if the city has lost its nerve and the ability to be positive about the future. People speak about the time of coronavirus not as a temporary challenge that is only uncertain in duration, but as though it will herald a new permanent era. The politicians fight for the O&G industry, but underlying the message is an anxiety that a bright future is no longer possible.
The history of Alberta is a continual cycle of very good times and very bad times. What always seems to have been a constant was optimism about the future. Today that seems to be gone, and I fear for the future. We need leaders who believe in growth and how to get there, without that, opportunity is missed through lack of vision.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by PPAR

Today that seems to be gone, and I fear for the future. We need leaders who believe in growth and how to get there, without that, opportunity is missed through lack of vision.

While the 2014 oil crash and subsequent years has shaken the optimism and confidence of the city, I think the opposition to the Green Line comes from more than that. It's just the scale of the project, by far the most expensive in City history and the two major scale-backs that have occurred in the last 3 years.

If we were still in the original vision of the Green Line, with service to the Far North and Deep SE for the $5B pricetag, there would a lot less opposition. But we've had the truncation in 2017 and the recent switch from deep full downtown tunnel to shallow tunnels and surface running on Centre Street (and many other delays), putting into question the competency of the City of planning and building the line and whether spending $5B and the City's fiscal capacity until 2044 to build a line that really doesn't meet fulfill the business cases it was meant to meet.



The current Green Line will require billions of dollars more to properly serve its purpose, which may not be easy to obtain. In the meantime, for me it looks like a white elephant similar to many new American systems where their introduction has led to no growth or loss of overall ridership because the high cost of operating trains have forced cutbacks on bus service. Some of the opposition aren't opposed to spending billions on transit, just not on Green Line V1.

[foolworm]

It's not even a matter of stimulus, but continuity. Companies are either leaving town or calling it quits, so as a local champion the City has to hold the line and keep people employed, never mind generating work for the newly unemployed. This is on top of the fact that the City isn't just playing with Calgarians' money for this project - there is provincial and federal funding which the City is accountable for.

To put even more bluntly, can the City afford to forego the jobs and economic activity generated by this project, which is a certainty, due to the possibility that the constructed line may not meet its ridership targets? Following that, is the City able to create an equivalent amount of stimulus with the municipal portion of funding alone, since the provincial and federal contributions are effectively forfeit?

[Corndogger]

Green Line plan now includes new Crescent Heights station, pedestrian pathway on Bow River bridge

Author of the article: Madeline Smith

Publishing date: 21 minutes ago • 2 minute read

Updated plans for the Green Line’s path through central Calgary see the train stop at a new station at 9 Ave. N along Centre Street and pass through future redevelopment in Eau Claire market.



The city released the updated alignment Tuesday evening, a little more than three months after unveiling a revised route through the core that planned for a bridge over the Bow River instead of an underground tunnel, and low-floor vehicles travelling on the road along Centre St. N. The latest changes come after several weeks gathering Calgarians’ input on what they’d like to see.

City officials told city council last year that proceeding with plans for a deep tunnel underneath downtown and the river could put the $4.9-billion project 10 percent over budget.

Council’s Green Line committee is set to discuss the latest revised alignment at a June 1 meeting, and city council will hold a final vote on a way forward two weeks later. The June vote comes after months of delays, including putting the new alignment off because in-person public feedback sessions had to be cancelled due to COVID-19.

The future LRT route through the center of the city is mostly unchanged from January. But the Crescent Heights neighborhood will get another station at 9 Ave. — something some residents and businesses had called for, since the train would have previously passed through the community without stopping until 16 Ave. N.

The city is also planning to integrate the train with new development at Eau Claire, similar to the way the existing red line LRT currently runs beneath the Central Library downtown. Current plans see the LRT emerge from its underground path at 2 Ave. to cross the planned bridge over the Bow River.

The city says an “integrated station-portal solution” will address concerns raised by local residents and businesses.

“By integrating the station into the redevelopment of the site, there will no longer be an impact to the existing road network in this area, and therefore no changes to local traffic access or circulation,” the city’s update says.

A decision hasn’t yet been made on what kind of bridge will be built over the Bow River or what it will look like, but the city is now suggesting adding a pathway for pedestrians and cyclists along with it.

Adding new bus rapid transit for communities in the north is an additional part of revisions to the Green Line. The city said the two middle lanes on the existing Center Street bridge will be reserved for BRT.

The complete 46-kilometre Green Line will eventually serve the far north too, but the city is currently planning to build just the first phase of the project, which runs from 16 Ave. N. to Shepard and has funding commitments from all three levels of government. The first phase is scheduled to be complete by 2026. When fully completed, the Green Line will stretch from 160 Ave. N. to Seton in the deep southeast.

Calgarians have until May 25 to send written public submissions to the city for consideration at the Green Line committee in June.

More to come…

Source: https://calgaryherald.com/news/green...box=1589331515

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

Green Line plan now includes new Crescent Heights station, pedestrian pathway on Bow River bridge

Author of the article: Madeline Smith

Publishing date: 21 minutes ago • 2 minute read

Updated plans for the Green Line’s path through central Calgary see the train stop at a new station at 9 Ave. N along Centre Street and pass through future redevelopment in Eau Claire market.



The city released the updated alignment Tuesday evening, a little more than three months after unveiling a revised route through the core that planned for a bridge over the Bow River instead of an underground tunnel, and low-floor vehicles travelling on the road along Centre St. N. The latest changes come after several weeks gathering Calgarians’ input on what they’d like to see.

City officials told city council last year that proceeding with plans for a deep tunnel underneath downtown and the river could put the $4.9-billion project 10 percent over budget.

Council’s Green Line committee is set to discuss the latest revised alignment at a June 1 meeting, and city council will hold a final vote on a way forward two weeks later. The June vote comes after months of delays, including putting the new alignment off because in-person public feedback sessions had to be cancelled due to COVID-19.

The future LRT route through the center of the city is mostly unchanged from January. But the Crescent Heights neighborhood will get another station at 9 Ave. — something some residents and businesses had called for, since the train would have previously passed through the community without stopping until 16 Ave. N.

The city is also planning to integrate the train with new development at Eau Claire, similar to the way the existing red line LRT currently runs beneath the Central Library downtown. Current plans see the LRT emerge from its underground path at 2 Ave. to cross the planned bridge over the Bow River.

The city says an “integrated station-portal solution” will address concerns raised by local residents and businesses.

“By integrating the station into the redevelopment of the site, there will no longer be an impact to the existing road network in this area, and therefore no changes to local traffic access or circulation,” the city’s update says.

A decision hasn’t yet been made on what kind of bridge will be built over the Bow River or what it will look like, but the city is now suggesting adding a pathway for pedestrians and cyclists along with it.

Adding new bus rapid transit for communities in the north is an additional part of revisions to the Green Line. The city said the two middle lanes on the existing Center Street bridge will be reserved for BRT.

The complete 46-kilometre Green Line will eventually serve the far north too, but the city is currently planning to build just the first phase of the project, which runs from 16 Ave. N. to Shepard and has funding commitments from all three levels of government. The first phase is scheduled to be complete by 2026. When fully completed, the Green Line will stretch from 160 Ave. N. to Seton in the deep southeast.

Calgarians have until May 25 to send written public submissions to the city for consideration at the Green Line committee in June.

More to come…

Source: https://calgaryherald.com/news/green...box=1589331515

The January Herald article says the city is planning to build BRT from downtown 6th Ave S to North 144th Avenue. Obviously they recognize riders won’t transfer from bus to train at 16th avenue to ride the last/first km from downtown (this was the case with the NW leg of the Red line before it was extended past University, too short equals low ridership and higher costs from running parallel bus services). So what is the point of building LRT across the River to 16th ave when that money could be used to extended the S.E. line past nowhere Shepard and out to the somewhere South Health Campus?


The city is also now planning a bus rapid transit route to run north along Centre Street from 6th Avenue S. to 144th Avenue N.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...downtown-path/

[milomilo]

Agreed, the north of the river section is a stupid compromise. Compromises are OK, but the city has continually made the wrong ones. We cannot afford to build all of the 42km at once, this should have been known from the start and even I was naïve enough to believe them way back then. I'd rather we built the north first, but since we have based the entirety of the design of this line on Shepard being the only place an LRV facilty can go (at least as the city told us), then we should focus on making the SE line as good as possible in the first phase. And also make BRT to the north as good as possible in the first phase.

Their proposal (if they've even thought it through) for Centre St south of 16th is a confused mess. So we're going to have BRT, cars and LRT in that narrow 4 lanes? Will the buses mix with the cars or the trains? If they mix with the trains, you're compromising our very expensive new LRT. If it mixes with the cars, then it's going to be slow and non competitive. I don't think many people have realised how crap this will be, for everyone.

Better solution, put bus lanes and proper BRT down the entirety of Centre St since we plan to take away that capacity anyway, nix the north of the river section of the Green Line indefinitely and build out the south. In ten years time, consider options for the north. But the city keep digging themselves into a hole pretending that LRT north is going to happen, and making it harder for themselves to make the right call.

[outoftheice]

A couple points regarding going north of the river:

- 16th Ave station is projected to be the third busiest station in terms of ridership for Stage 1. (7th Ave is first, Shepard is second). If the point of building Green Line is to get people on to transit, you would be better off not building every station between Shepard and downtown than you would be not building to 16th Ave.

- In terms of indefinitely delaying going north of the river and then revisiting in 10 years, what exactly do you think will change? Construction costs will continue to increase and the technical challenges will remain. So in ten years we'll most likely end up with the exact same plan as is currently being proposed. Why wait ten years to build the same thing at a higher cost?

- The Centre St transit corridor is already at capacity in terms of bus service. It is the only place in the entire city of Calgary where residents are choosing to drive simply because they can't get on full buses. LRT capacity is desperately needed on Centre St, far more than is needed in south east Calgary. Building to 16th Ave now allows for incremental expansion up Centre St. Each expansion northbound takes pressure off the bus network and increases the number of people taking transit. Why would the city want to eliminate its ability to do that?

[Pegasus]

Also from the January 29 Calgary Herald article: "The Green Line is also up against new funding delays from the province and legislation that would allow the UCP government to cancel funding altogether with 90 days’ notice". Perhaps the province will be glad they put this clause in now that they are swimming in red ink, particularly as the City can't make up its mind what the Green line solution will look like. BRT and LRT running down centre street? LRT running through a city park (Prince's Island)? It all boggles the mind!!

[MalcolmTucker]

Clauses like that are standard. The fight was political theatre.

[YYCguys]

Prince’s Island. That’s all. Byeee! 👋

[outoftheice]

I think the Prince's Island argument is a bit of a red herring. I live close by and I think I can count on one hand the number of times I've been on the pathway through the wetlands and seen anyone else there. Yes that's completely anecdotal but in my opinion when most Calgarians think of Prince's Island, they're thinking of the western portion of the park and not the wetlands. Yes the bridge will have an impact on the park but in reality it will make little difference to how the majority of Calgarians actually use and enjoy the park.

[YYCguys]

I bet the owners of 102 Crescent Road (the former home of Jim Shaw, was listed for $11 million recently) will be thrilled to have the construction and the operation of the Green Line as their backyard view!

[craner]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Agreed, the north of the river section is a stupid compromise. Compromises are OK, but the city has continually made the wrong ones. We cannot afford to build all of the 42km at once, this should have been known from the start and even I was naïve enough to believe them way back then. I'd rather we built the north first, but since we have based the entirety of the design of this line on Shepard being the only place an LRV facilty can go (at least as the city told us), then we should focus on making the SE line as good as possible in the first phase. And also make BRT to the north as good as possible in the first phase.

Their proposal (if they've even thought it through) for Centre St south of 16th is a confused mess. So we're going to have BRT, cars and LRT in that narrow 4 lanes? Will the buses mix with the cars or the trains? If they mix with the trains, you're compromising our very expensive new LRT. If it mixes with the cars, then it's going to be slow and non competitive. I don't think many people have realised how crap this will be, for everyone.

Better solution, put bus lanes and proper BRT down the entirety of Centre St since we plan to take away that capacity anyway, nix the north of the river section of the Green Line indefinitely and build out the south. In ten years time, consider options for the north. But the city keep digging themselves into a hole pretending that LRT north is going to happen, and making it harder for themselves to make the right call.

^THIS!

In a perfect world the first $5B would be spent getting the north portion built properly (i.e. under Center St.) from the Bow River bridge to at least north of Mcknight. Surface running from there with grade separation at major intersections (64th, Beddington, Country Hills, etc.).

From where we sit today this is not feasible given the time it would take to re- design and the likelihood of the Province & Feds pulling funding. So the best idea at this point is to build a well designed south line and leave crossing the river to the north for a later time. Trying to mix LRT with traffic & BRT on Center will be a disaster and seems to be just so the City can say “Look - we made the Green Line run to the north”.

I totally agree with milomilo on this one.

[MalcolmTucker]

We can fix Centre Street street running later if it really sucks for the up to 16th Ave part. We aren't stuck with it. Maybe a sunk cost of $100 million as long as we can still use the bridge to then feed into a portal for a subway.

[accord1999]

I think the grade differences between a portal+shallow tunnel and the surface option would not make it possible to easily reuse the bridge.

[MalcolmTucker]

^ how deep the tunnel is matters much less if you delete the 9th Ave station, don't think it is a problem.