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  #41  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:16 AM
homebucket homebucket is online now
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Housing prices spiked irrationally during the pandemic. A lot of that will be erased in the next couple of years.
Yeah it was pretty insane. Prices are already coming back down quite a bit but not quite back to pre pandemic levels and I don’t think ever will. Even pre pandemic values were still steadily gaining.
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  #42  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:16 AM
AviationGuy AviationGuy is offline
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
Good luck Austin, that's all I have to say. Most overrated and overhyped housing market in the world probably. Gonna be a rough adjustment to reality.
High quality properties are still selling in Austin at premium prices. What has changed is that investors aren't buying up trash properties at ridiculous prices and then flipping them a month later. Two investors got stuck in that situation on my street after they bought in the spring with the intention of flipping without doing anything to the properties. I was happy to see that happen to them.

In my neighborhood, prices haven't dropped very much for the good properties, although they are on the market longer because of a higher supply. I'm talking about properties that had been renovated or in especially good condition. Again, the really bad properties are way down, and that's the way it should be.

Our local economy is very strong, people are still moving in to take many vacant jobs, and there is no house panic. We're just adjusting to the way the market really should be. With higher mortgage rates, new buyers are taking more time to buy instead of buying sight unseen. It's a healthier situation.
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  #43  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:19 AM
edale edale is online now
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Well yeah, rural areas pretty much anywhere are gonna be considerably more affordable 9 times outta 10.

But reading between the lines of edale's post, I gather that moving out to the sticks wasn't a terribly enthralling proposition to him.

If the choice is between renting forever in urban LA or owning my own home in urban Cincinnati, i'm headed to the queen city every time, at least for settling down and raising a family purposes.

But I'm probably pretty atypical:

A. I have a very special fondness for Cincy.
B. The Midwest climate does not phase me.
C. I don't work in a geographically-special industry.
I also have a fondness for Cincinnati, and the climate does not phase me, either. But my family and most of my friends have all left Cincinnati, so there's not much there for me anymore. Most of my family is either on the east or west coasts now.

Also, Ohio is now a deep red state. It's a pretty different state than the Ohio I grew up in. The state is hostile to its cities, refuses to fund even basic transit, and continues to pass embarrassing legislation like abortion bans and anti-LGBT stuff. And I can tell you first hand the gay dating scene there is shit lol. So my prospects of finding someone to settle down and raise a family with there are dim.

I probably will leave LA eventually. I don't want to rent forever, and the state (really the whole west) is running out of water. Chicago is very appealing, as is DC, a city I've lived in previously. But at the same time, there is so much to love about California. It'll be a tough decision to leave, if I do make that decision. Maybe I'll hit the powerball and buy HomeBucket's house
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  #44  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:26 AM
AviationGuy AviationGuy is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
I also have a fondness for Cincinnati, and the climate does not phase me, either. But my family and most of my friends have all left Cincinnati, so there's not much there for me anymore. Most of my family is either on the east or west coasts now.

Also, Ohio is now a deep red state. It's a pretty different state than the Ohio I grew up in. The state is hostile to its cities, refuses to fund even basic transit, has continues to pass embarrassing legislation like abortion bans and the like. And I can tell you first hand the gay dating scene there is shit lol. So my prospects of finding someone to settle down and raise a family with are dim.

I probably will leave LA eventually. I don't want to rent forever, and the state (really the whole west) is running out of water. Chicago is very appealing, as is DC, a city I've lived in previously. But at the same time, there is so much to love about California. It'll be a tough decision to leave, if I do make that decision. Maybe I'll hit the powerball and buy HomeBucket's house
I would move to Chicago in an instant if not for the winter weather. To me, except for winter, it's the best large city and metro in the country, and a great bargain for housing.
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  #45  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:31 AM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by AviationGuy View Post
In my neighborhood, prices haven't dropped very much for the good properties, although they are on the market longer because of a higher supply. I'm talking about properties that had been renovated or in especially good condition. Again, the really bad properties are way down, and that's the way it should be.

Our local economy is very strong, people are still moving in to take many vacant jobs, and there is no house panic. We're just adjusting to the way the market really should be. With higher mortgage rates, new buyers are taking more time to buy instead of buying sight unseen. It's a healthier situation.
Sounds like a bubble.

"Haven't dropped very much"

Correction: Haven't dropped very much in a short time = significant annualized drop.

Add to that: this will continue year on year.

Anyone who lives in a place where properties have doubled or tripled in value in a matter of a couple of years is literally smoking crack if they think there isn't a local correction coming.

Miami will be at the top of the list. I don't care how much "outside" money is coming. The reality is for many of these places is that the local economy hasn't changed that much and people still make sh*t money. I doesn't matter how many New Yorkers go to Miami in well publicized moves. If the average local is making 50K it doesn't substantiate 3K month rents for a 1 bedroom and 1 million dollar prices for 2br stucco homes.
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  #46  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:47 AM
AviationGuy AviationGuy is offline
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Sounds like a bubble.

"Haven't dropped very much"

Correction: Haven't dropped very much in a short time = significant annualized drop.

Add to that: this will continue year on year.

Anyone who lives in a place where properties have doubled or tripled in value in a matter of a couple of years is literally smoking crack if they think there isn't a local correction coming.

Miami will be at the top of the list. I don't care how much "outside" money is coming. The reality is for many of these places is that the local economy hasn't changed that much and people still make sh*t money. I doesn't matter how many New Yorkers go to Miami in well publicized moves. If the average local is making 50K it doesn't substantiate 3K month rents for a 1 bedroom and 1 million dollar prices for 2br stucco homes.
Read my post again, and this time read the details.
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  #47  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 2:36 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Yeah, Prop 13 needs to be repealed yesterday. The only reason there isn't widespread outcry over the ridiculous housing market here is because of the normal, middle class people who've build vast sums of wealth because they were lucky enough to have bought a home when the housing market in CA wasn't fucked. Make them pay taxes at the rate their property is valued at and I guarantee we'd see some immediate changes. Valuations would probably plummet, for starters.
Quoted for absolute truth. Prop 13 created the housing cost monstrosity, it needs to go post hate. Let values fall 75%. It would be great for society in general.

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  #48  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 3:53 AM
montréaliste montréaliste is offline
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Originally Posted by AviationGuy View Post
I would move to Chicago in an instant if not for the winter weather. To me, except for winter, it's the best large city and metro in the country, and a great bargain for housing.


The weather’s fine. Landing gears just glide on those icy runways.
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  #49  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 3:57 AM
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We own two houses and both down slightly.
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  #50  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 4:23 AM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
totally.

What's funny is that while Zillow has us ~$125K too high, redfin has us about $25K too low, and realtor.com has us about $50K too low.

All of them are off target. Though I guess redfin is closest, so it "wins".



So again, bring some grains of salt with you whenever you're perusing these online real estate sites.
Redfin has mine about $20k above zillow. Zillow has mine having lost $14k in value since its June peak. Still a good 60% above the value that I purchased it at in 2017.
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  #51  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:11 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is online now
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
For those unfamiliar/uninitiated with CA real estate. Not my place, but not too far from me. Edale will be submitting his two weeks notice in 3... 2...

That was unsustainable even by expensive coastal standards. I hope people that bought in between 2020 and early 2022 plan to keep their houses for a long time...
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  #52  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:20 PM
edale edale is online now
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That was unsustainable even by expensive coastal standards. I hope people that bought in between 2020 and early 2022 plan to keep their houses for a long time...
Careful, HomeBucket might call you poor for daring to state that a $900k increase in valuation in a year is crazy.
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  #53  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:20 PM
homebucket homebucket is online now
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That was unsustainable even by expensive coastal standards. I hope people that bought in between 2020 and early 2022 plan to keep their houses for a long time...
Most homebuyers usually do. The ones that don’t plan to stay around long typically rent.
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  #54  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:21 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Careful, HomeBucket might call you poor for daring to state that a $900k increase in valuation in a year is crazy.
I never said it wasn’t crazy nor that it’s sustainable. You said it was impossible. Big difference. And clearly incorrect.
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  #55  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:31 PM
jd3189 jd3189 is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I could see some areas in coastal CA going up by 900k in a year. My aunt lives in an area where I believe homes went for for $3-4 million right before the pandemic, and last I checked the recent sales were in the $6-7 million range. And these homes aren't particularly nice. And the boomer residents had normal jobs like nurse and teacher. And they're sitting on a $6 million home (really $6 million plot of land). Yes, it's insanity. This is Corona del Mar, for people who know coastal OC.
Newport Beach. Been out there a few times. The homes are not even mansions, just small quaint beach houses. With the demand that exists for people wanting to live near the coast in a semi-walkable environment, most of those homes should be upgraded to small apartments, similar to what exists in Santa Monica.
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  #56  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:52 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is online now
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Careful, HomeBucket might call you poor for daring to state that a $900k increase in valuation in a year is crazy.
Broad gyrations in the real estate market always give me pause. Home prices since 2020 have appreciated faster than they did in the run up to 2008, and I don't think we really understand why yet. My suspicion is that prices have moved way too much for this to be just traditional home buyer activity. It seems like something more systemic.
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  #57  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2022, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
I never said it wasn’t crazy nor that it’s sustainable. You said it was impossible. Big difference. And clearly incorrect.
I mean...people that got their houses during the downturn or in the 80's & 90's are looking at possibly over a million dollar increase.
Not for my area though . "Poor!"
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  #58  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2022, 4:09 AM
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Originally Posted by AviationGuy View Post
I would move to Chicago in an instant if not for the winter weather. To me, except for winter, it's the best large city and metro in the country, and a great bargain for housing.
If Chicago had San Diego’s weather, it wouldn’t be a bargain anymore
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  #59  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2022, 9:42 PM
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In Atlanta, I built a new construction home in early 2020 and Zillow/Redfin say the price is currently 45% higher than what I paid. At its peak, though, it was 55% higher. I also own a townhouse I purchased 10 years ago and renting it out. The rents there doubled compared to 5-6 years ago (I used to rent it out for $1200 a month back then, and now the tenants are paying $2500 a month). The townhouse value increased nearly 200% compared to the price I bought it in 2012 at its peak (according to Zillow/Redfin). It has dropped around 10% from the peak price.
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  #60  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2022, 10:12 PM
muertecaza muertecaza is online now
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Cue all the commenters from the sunbelt cities to say nothing to see here as prices are down 10+% from months ago, lol.

I've been stacking cash for the Miami crash for years.

Giddie up.
I'm in Phoenix suburbs, and while I'm not worried for myself as I bought in 2014 while Phoenix was still recovering from the last crash, we have seen some pretty big drops from the ~June 2022 peak. My Zestimate (which is pretty close to accurate based on my tracking of actual sales in the surrounding area) has gone down 15% since June 2022. But also the prices in June 2022 were insane, some 50-year old modest houses near me went for over $500k. Even a 15% drop from there only brings us back to Dec. 2021 levels, and those prices still make little sense to me. The declines have tapered off in the last month or so, but we'll see moving forward.
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