CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Handro

I'm not holding my breath. The guy claims to be this great collaborator with a big tent but he ran a pretty lousy campaign, attacking doddering old Vallas as if he was running against the love child of David Duke and Mussolini. He was really ham-fisted and oddly personal in a lot of his attacks throughout the run-off and he and the CTU leadership seem overly eager to fight any person or group that pushes back even a little on their priorities. How is he going to build healthy working relationships with all the stakeholders that he won the contest by denigrating?

Oh I totally agree with most of this, but also it's an election. What's he going to do - just say he agrees with his opponent when he does? That type of talk doesn't get you elected typically. People have also grown too accustomed to attack politics as well. The thing I appreciated about Vallas was that he held off on the attacks for way longer and was running big time on policy.

You usually attack when you either actually agree with your opponent on some point or you have no good points vs. your opponent. They definitely differed on enough but there were definitely some things they agreed on that I caught - whether fully or intersection points.

They both definitely agree that safety is a major concern and actually impacts a ton of things. They obviously had different opinions about how to achieve greater safety, but there were things that showed me there was some intersection there. Vallas really didn't do a good job of getting all his points across IMO. From reading his plan, I know that he and Johnson actually agreed that getting youth involved in thing outside of school is one key to curbing violence in the city. Vallas talked about keeping schools open later, on weekends, and in the summer to give kids more activities outside of class to do. He may have once mentioned employment too. Johnson talked about massive youth employment programs. They both differ obviously in that Vallas wants to majorly expand the police program whereas Johnson doesn't. Although Johnson a week or so ago said he wouldn't cut the CPD budget but he'd try and allocate a few resources (i.e. get more detectives to solve murders because the rates are so low. They both agreed on that point). But it actually did show me that Vallas isn't totally "cops solve everything" and he does show some understanding of fixing some of the actual root issues. He just did a shit job of communicating that to the masses.


I didn't vote for Johnson but it's my city. I'm going to give him a chance and see what kind of person he actually is outside of a vicious election when he doesn't have to attack some guy. Also what was funny is that Vallas quipped that "we're actually friends outside of this" in the last debate. No idea if it's true but Johnson didn't fight the statement at all.

[Klippenstein]

Johnson said in one interview today that he reached out to Vallas and he’s going to help with the transition period. This was after talking about working with LL on the transition. Everything he has said since his victory has been about unifying Chicagoans and he’s repeated many times how he is very concerned to hear from the people who didn’t vote for him. He also talked about focusing first on issues where everybody agrees like youth employment.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

Johnson said in one interview today that he reached out to Vallas and he’s going to help with the transition period. This was after talking about working with LL on the transition. Everything he has said since his victory has been about unifying Chicagoans and he’s repeated many times how he is very concerned to hear from the people who didn’t vote for him. He also talked about focusing first on issues where everybody agrees like youth employment.

I hope he's serious about this. And while I shouldn't judge what I see on social media as a generalization, there's some pretty divisive things I've seen out there from some big followers. Or city council members like Rosanna Rodriguez tweeting "rich ppl crying rn". If you are truly about uniting then it's about everyone whether rich or poor - black, white, asian, etc - gay or straight - etc etc etc.

Any indication from Vallas that he'll help? I actually would not be surprised if he said yes. It would actually be a huge gesture from both those guys.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Both candidates had different stances overall on this, but what is interesting and that many people probably missed is that they both had the same stance on increasing the quality of officers. I heard them both talk about how the quality of officers needs to go up. I mean it's really like any other worker in a business. More workers doesn't automatically mean better. Obviously you can't just gut it and lose tons of people but there are so many examples in the world of how 50 or 75 workers can do the same job as 100. But I'm sure many missed it but they both talked about it on a few different occasions.

People didn’t miss it. They just ignored it, because most policing is not a quality over quantity duty. To have faster response times and more visible patrols, a larger force is required. Even the most experienced, talented officers can’t be in multiple places at once.

To improve clearance rates for shootings would require comprehensive surveillance, along with more officers to review the videos. And few experienced officers or even promising recruits are going to be drawn to a district with lower pay, more danger, worse hours, and that is talking about defunding or cutting staff.

Beyond certain use of force standards, Chicago is always going to have average police with average abilities.

Most of that is just campaign babble, since extra hiring is not feasible right now.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

People didn’t miss it. They just ignored it, because most policing is not a quality over quantity duty. To have faster response times and more visible patrols, a larger force is required. Even the most experienced, talented officers can’t be in multiple places at once.

To improve clearance rates for shootings would require comprehensive surveillance, along with more officers to review the videos. And few experienced officers or even promising recruits are going to be drawn to a district with lower pay, more danger, worse hours, and that is talking about defunding or cutting staff.

Beyond certain use of force standards, Chicago is always going to have average police with average abilities.

Most of that is just campaign babble, since extra hiring is not feasible right now.

Both of those things are true, and I still hold on that most people missed it not just decided to ignore it on average. But it is also why I said you can't just have a mass exodus of people like some believe is fine (ridiculous..). It's like any other industry. We're also in an age of greater automation and there are some things that can probably be better automated (true of much more than what we're talking about here), and free up officers, detectives, etc to do the things that cannot be automated. I think CPD has made strides with that over the last decade though. It's a huge time suck in so many industries or sometimes very specific orgs/companies.

Being a police officer is a demanding and stressful job, but there's just shit that can be improved like relations (another thing - they both want to bring back better community policing and relationships) and stop paying so much every year in settlements.

Just like crime, any org also has their "root causes" that you need to tackle head on and I guarantee that CPD or any other org needs that treatment. Being efficient which goes down to the quality of your people is important.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Any indication from Vallas that he'll help? I actually would not be surprised if he said yes. It would actually be a huge gesture from both those guys.

Johnson said Vallas is providing support with the transition. That’s all he said. Probably won’t know what that means until we see some more concrete transition plans and/or his appointments.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

Johnson said Vallas is providing support with the transition. That’s all he said. Probably won’t know what that means until we see some more concrete transition plans and/or his appointments.

Why would Vallas help Johnson out in any way after the way Johnson went after him in the runoff?........ If I was Vallas, I wouldn't give him an ounce of my time moving forward.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by twister244

Why would Vallas help Johnson out in any way after the way Johnson went after him in the runoff?........ If I was Vallas, I wouldn't give him an ounce of my time moving forward.

Because he loves Chicago and wants to see it and its citizens prosper and some things are more important than indulging petty gripes? Because he's a career administrator and politician and doesn't have a thin skin and understands it's not personal?

[twister244]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

Because he loves Chicago and wants to see it and its citizens prosper and some things are more important than indulging petty gripes? Because he's a career administrator and politician and doesn't have a thin skin and understands it's not personal?

There's ways to contribute to the city without involving yourself directly with the mayor though. If I was Vallas, I would just steer clear of Johnson moving forward. I love Chicago too, but if I ran an election against someone who attacked me the way Johnson did, I would have no desire to directly work with the dude after losing to him.

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

People didn’t miss it. They just ignored it, because most policing is not a quality over quantity duty. To have faster response times and more visible patrols, a larger force is required. Even the most experienced, talented officers can’t be in multiple places at once.

To improve clearance rates for shootings would require comprehensive surveillance, along with more officers to review the videos. And few experienced officers or even promising recruits are going to be drawn to a district with lower pay, more danger, worse hours, and that is talking about defunding or cutting staff.

Beyond certain use of force standards, Chicago is always going to have average police with average abilities.

Most of that is just campaign babble, since extra hiring is not feasible right now.

Have yet to hear anything approaching reasonable explanations for CPD performance vs peer cities. Some combination of chronic gross mismanagement and institutionalized cultural rot...can you separate them?....has got to be at work here.

Regardless, these problems have been building for a long time - obviously. It's far more than the emergence of a disgraceful MAGA union and leadership. Is it any wonder that residents of neighborhoods most plagued by continuing high levels of violence and insecurity were rather resoundingly receptive to a different approach...even if it ultimately comes more down to tone and message (all remains to be seen)?

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

Have yet to hear anything approaching reasonable explanations for CPD performance vs peer cities. Some combination of chronic gross mismanagement and institutionalized cultural rot...can you separate them?....has got to be at work here.

Regardless, these problems have been building for a long time - obviously. It's far more than the emergence of a disgraceful MAGA union and leadership. Is it any wonder that residents of neighborhoods most plagued by continuing high levels of violence and insecurity were rather resoundingly receptive to a different approach...even if it ultimately comes more down to tone and message (all remains to be seen)?

The reality is that the CPD is an average police department. Not extraordinary, but more capable than many large cities.

Their current situation is in fact quite different from NYC and LA at the most basic level. For example, NYC back in 2010 was complaining about 10K-15K gang members compared to a police force of 30K+. Compared to Chicago with 100K+ active gang members with ~12K officers.

I am of the opinion that immigration and gentrification had a very large influence on breaking up NYC and LA’s most dysfunctional blocks, but we also have to consider that those cities during the steepest years of declines had much stricter sentencing regarding gun violations and proactive tactics like stop and frisk than Chicago has ever had.



Right now the data shows that the strongest correlation between peaks and troughs in Chicago’s crime rate is linked to how many random traffic stops are made.

But if voters in these neighborhoods are upset with random stops and want them reduced, then the blunt honest response is that they have to live with higher crime rates.

NYC didn’t magically improve homicide clearance rates. They just sentenced everybody with an illegal weapon until hard-to-solve gang murders were proportional to easy-to-solve crimes of passion.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The reality is that the CPD is an average police department. Not extraordinary, but more capable than many large cities.

Their current situation is in fact quite different from NYC and LA at the most basic level. For example, NYC back in 2010 was complaining about 10K-15K gang members compared to a police force of 30K+. Compared to Chicago with 100K+ active gang members with ~12K officers.

I am of the opinion that immigration and gentrification had a very large influence on breaking up NYC and LA’s most dysfunctional blocks, but we also have to consider that those cities during the steepest years of declines had much stricter sentencing regarding gun violations and proactive tactics like stop and frisk than Chicago has ever had.



Right now the data shows that the strongest correlation between peaks and troughs in Chicago’s crime rate is linked to how many random traffic stops are made.

But if voters in these neighborhoods are upset with random stops and want them reduced, then the blunt honest response is that they have to live with higher crime rates.

NYC didn’t magically improve homicide clearance rates. They just sentenced everybody with an illegal weapon until hard-to-solve gang murders were proportional to easy-to-solve crimes of passion.

There's been much research Into this. And there's indication that it's more complicated as some very large decreases in crime were not in the already gentrifying or gentrified neighborhoods.

NYC had a reduction in homicide rate after 2011 even after stop and frisk went away. The NYPD started focusing on retaliatory gang violence instead which led to even further decreases. The violent crime rate was already on the way down for 2 or 3 years before Rudy ever took office as well.

I think that Chicago should take a note from NYC and deal more with the retaliatory violence aspect that seemed to work for them a decade plus ago.

Also, the actual person who came up with the "random traffic stop" stuff in Kansas City a few decades ago never said to just stop anyone anywhere. It's been wildly mis interpreted. It was about identifying the most problem blocks and doing the stops only there. Not everywhere.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

There's been much research Into this. And there's indication that it's more complicated as some very large decreases in crime were not in the already gentrifying or gentrified neighborhoods.

NYC had a reduction in homicide rate after 2011 even after stop and frisk went away. The NYPD started focusing on retaliatory gang violence instead which led to even further decreases. The violent crime rate was already on the way down for 2 or 3 years before Rudy ever took office as well.

I think that Chicago should take a note from NYC and deal more with the retaliatory violence aspect that seemed to work for them a decade plus ago.

Also, the actual person who came up with the "random traffic stop" stuff in Kansas City a few decades ago never said to just stop anyone anywhere. It's been wildly mis interpreted. It was about identifying the most problem blocks and doing the stops only there. Not everywhere.

I agree that there are a lot of factors besides just policing, because at the heart I think a lot of crime reduction is connected to population churn that prevents clusters of bad actors from becoming entrenched in an area.

I’m sure there’s a lot of population movement in NYC neighborhoods that is not necessarily gentrification. NYC was really lucky with regard to Caribbean immigration on this front.

It was about identifying the most problem blocks and doing the stops only there. Not everywhere.

Well, there’s a reason traffic stops are so racially disproportionate in Chicago, which is also a frequent progressive complaint. They’re obviously being done near the most problematic blocks. But NYC sentencing was also much harsher when they did find people illegally carrying guns.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Well, there’s a reason traffic stops are so racially disproportionate in Chicago, which is also a frequent progressive complaint. They’re obviously being done near the most problematic blocks. But NYC sentencing was also much harsher when they did find people illegally carrying guns.

I've seen data and maps that show this is only.partially true. There have also been a disproportionate amount.of stops in non problem areas too. I think progressives complain about it all, but keeping.to.thr original idea from the 1980s that wouldn't be happening in areas of the north side for example.

[bnk]

Chicago is getting what it deserves.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...756db4071&ei=8

Chicago Elects to Make Things Worse

Story by The Editors • 15h ago



The voters have spoken, and Chicago is going to pay the price.



Mayor Lori Lightfoot was undone by her toxic unpopularity in the Democratic primary a couple of months ago. That left a choice between two drastically different Democratic visions of the city’s future: a return to Daley-like normalcy under establishment candidate Paul Vallas, or an experiment in trendily progressive big-city governance with Cook County commissioner Brandon Johnson. And a sharply divided city chose by a 52-48 margin (the closest such outcome in Chicago history) to veer hard to the left, sending Johnson to the mayor’s office in an election that bodes ill for the Second City.

To say that Brandon Johnson is a dream candidate for national progressives is to understate just how many boxes he checks for today’s activist Left. He is an African-American lobbyist for the powerful and radical Chicago Teachers Union in addition to his nominal duties as Cook County commissioner. (The CTU funded 90 percent of his campaign; when he announced that “Chicago is a union town” in Tuesday night’s victory speech, he was not speaking of the Fraternal Order of Police.) He wants to immediately raise $800 million in city taxes not just on high earners, but on tourists and commuters who live outside the city. In an election fought primarily on the issue of crime — the murder rate in Chicago has skyrocketed since 2016 — Johnson was a candidate whose most moderate position was retreating from his original position of “defunding the police” to a “no additional funding for the police” stance that his base regarded as a “compromise.” Instead, Johnson proposes to hire social workers to replace missing police manpower in Chicago’s most crime- and gang-ridden communities
Brandon Johnson's election as Chicago mayor, a massive victory for progressives

...

These issues (and many others) were not concealed in the campaign; they were aired fully in debates, advertisements, and commentary. And Chicago voters chose regardless to hand the reins to an activist with zero prior executive experience. Johnson takes office next month, as Chicago holds its breath awaiting the Illinois state supreme court’s ruling on the constitutionality of 2022’s SAFE-T Act — passed in a self-congratulatory rush in the post-George Floyd era — which includes the first-ever statewide “cashless bail” law. If it is upheld, and the provision goes into law, then an inexperienced mayor ideologically opposed to policing looks set to encounter yet another surge in urban crime. Even if it is struck down, Chicago is left with all of its other problems.

A sense of self-preservation has clearly motivated voters in blue cities recently. But that impulse was nowhere evident in Chicago on Tuesday.


...

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by bnk

....
the murder rate in Chicago has skyrocketed since 2016

Actually it skyrocketed since 2015 because 2016 thru part of 2017 was the skyrocket. Then it came down until early-ish 2020, then skyrocketed again starting spring 2020. And it's now come back down to 2018 levels so far as I've predicted, previously. The trend is obvious and following 2016 to 2018 right now almost to a T. Actually there's less murders so far this year than 2012. Where was the outrage in 2012?

Murders each year in the city thru 4/4

2012: 121
2013: 76
2014: 66
2015: 92
2016: 149
2017: 151
2018: 117
2019: 91
2020: 103
2021: 146
2022: 138
2023: 118

The percent decrease of 2016 vs 2018 in this is almost identical to 2021 vs. 2023. While Chicago has decreased nearly 20% YOY, cities like Dallas have increased over 20% and have higher murder rates than Chicago this year still.

[SIGSEGV]

while procrastinating on making a figure for a proposal, I made this map. It doesn't tell us anything we don't already know but...




I count 13 homicides so far this year in Vallas-voting districts, vs. 111 in Johnson voting districts, with the caveat that I don't know how accurate the latitude/longitude I'm scraping off the chicago sun times homicide tracker is, which could potentially make some positions hop over precinct boundaries.

[Vlajos]

This happened not very far from my house.

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/ma...-with-2-others

Unfortunately, it has become more common in the last five years or so. Almost never had shootings in the area before that. Thank goodness the police were there very quickly. People were outside walking their dogs. More to come with Johnson/Foxx running the show.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by bnk

A sense of self-preservation has clearly motivated voters in blue cities recently. But that impulse was nowhere evident in Chicago on Tuesday.
...

Not surprised that The National Review doesn’t like Chicago’s pick for mayor. That said, lots of false assumptions and inacurracies in that article. What “sense of self-preservation” are they referring to? Did conservatives do well in the 2022 election? I must have missed that.

Why no mention of how poorly conservatives performed in Illinois school board elections or a liberal justice winning by 10% in Wisconsin? I guess it doesn’t fit the narrative of “crazy liberals”.

[Halsted & Villagio]

Its early but I am really liking what I am seeing and hearing from Johnson so far - particularly like his constant drum beat of "uniting" the city. Will he deliver on this? Time will tell. But I like that he is putting that front and center. Do not favor one area over the others (something that has not happened in the past) - address them all 'equally' and if, anything, give special emphasis to those areas long neglected/bringing them up to where they likely would have been had they not been overlooked for decades. That will cut down on discontent/anger - which will likely cut down on crime.

In today's world, where most everything is at our fingertips, and we can literally see other parts on the world in real time, while sitting in our homes via Skype/Zoom, the world has gotten much smaller... and has expanded horizons. Whereas crime used to be firmly entrenched in 'pockets' just over a decade ago, making citizens in other areas of the city feel safe... that is no longer the case. That anger and discontent is traveling now... forcing us to get to the root cause if we want to lower crime... forcing us to address areas long overlooked/discriminated against by redlining and systemic disinvestment.

That may seem like a liberal agenda to some, but Paul Vallas spoke about many of these same issues and talked about how he would do the same thing - continue the mission to upgrade South & West. Again, I will repeat - these are our Harlems/Brooklyn/Bronx, etc. The spillage (for lack of a better term) coming from those areas effect all areas. That young man from Englewood with no hope/no job opportunities/no rec center/food desert/no library/lacking safe parks to play in... he goes North... he goes Downtown... etc. No amount of Policing on the streets can contain the anger he may be carrying with him - until after the damage has been done.

Not to sound alarmist because most do not take out their anger this way... but it is that small % that do, that make all the headlines. And to put it more bluntly/coldly... it is bad for business. That small percentage of shootings happening downtown or in enclaves on the northside, those shots ring around the world because the media seizes on them... and makes them the banner for Chicago.

Tall task, but one that can be accomplished. Other cities have done it. Even LA has done it... no longer dominated by Blood and Crip headlines. There is no reason Chicago can't do the same.

I am also hopeful that Johnson will do the right thing with taxes. We will all be watching that one. And he sounds like he really wants to bump up the economy/help business thrive. All tall tasks... tasks that can be accomplished. Johnson is on cloud 9 right now, reality will hit in little over a month when he takes over. That will be the true test.

Jury still out.... but eagerly awaiting

.