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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 1:23 AM
ocman ocman is offline
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Nice to see SF and Atlanta reach the exclusive minority majority status club. There’s LA/San Bernardino, Houston, Miami, and now SF/Oakland and Atlanta. Who else and who is next?
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 1:51 AM
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Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Nice to see SF and Atlanta reach the exclusive minority majority status club. There’s LA/San Bernardino, Houston, Miami, and now SF/Oakland and Atlanta. Who else and who is next?
Honolulu? I don't see that urban area included in the ethnic/racial stats.
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 2:03 AM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post
When I was young, East Palo Alto was considered to be one of the "dangerous" parts of the Bay Area. Don't know if that's the case now.
When I was an undergrad near there 12+ years ago it was still considered sketchy. Except for Ikea.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 3:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Nice to see SF and Atlanta reach the exclusive minority majority status club. There’s LA/San Bernardino, Houston, Miami, and now SF/Oakland and Atlanta. Who else and who is next?
"minority majority" usually means that all non-white groups, collectively, outweigh the NH-white population, not any single one of the minority macro-demos by itself.

in which case SF and atlanta, and a bunch of others, have been minority majority for a while now.

going by 2020 MSA figures (as opposed to the UA figures from OP), here are all the 1M+ MSAs from most to least white:


1M+ MSAs by NH-white percentage (census 2020):
  1. pittsburgh: 82.2%
  2. cincinnati: 75.9%
  3. grand rapids: 75.7%
  4. buffalo: 73.0%
  5. rochester: 72.9%
  6. providence: 71.6%
  7. louisville: 71.5%
  8. minneapolis: 71.2%
  9. st. louis: 70.3%
  10. columbus: 69.1%

  11. portland: 68.7%
  12. kansas city: 68.5%
  13. nashville: 68.3%
  14. salt lake city: 68.3%
  15. indianapolis: 68.2%
  16. cleveland: 67.4%
  17. boston: 66.6%
  18. milwaukee: 64.1%
  19. hartford: 63.9%
  20. detroit: 63.6%

  21. denver: 61.2%
  22. tampa: 59.5%
  23. birmingham: 59.4%
  24. jacksonville: 59.4%
  25. oklahoma city: 59.3%
  26. philadelphia: 59.1%
  27. tulsa: 59.0%
  28. raleigh: 58.3%
  29. seattle: 57.9%
  30. charlotte: 57.8%

    US National average: 57.8%

  31. richmond: 55.3%
  32. phoenix: 53.6%
  33. baltimore: 52.7%
  34. virginia beach: 52.3%
  35. tucson: 51.5%
  36. chicago: 50.2%
  37. austin: 49.6%
  38. new orleans: 48.3%
  39. sacramento: 48.3%
  40. atlanta: 43.7%

  41. orlando: 43.5%
  42. new york: 43.3%
  43. san diego: 43.1%
  44. dallas: 42.8%
  45. washington DC: 42.3%
  46. memphis: 41.3%
  47. las vegas: 39.4%
  48. san francisco: 36.2%
  49. houston: 33.7%
  50. san antonio: 32.8%

  51. riverside: 29.4%
  52. miami: 29.1%
  53. san jose: 28.8%
  54. los angeles: 28.5%
  55. fresno: 27.0%
  56. honolulu: 17.3%


all 20 of the MSAs below chicago on the list above are now "minority majority".

and with the way white people continue to flee chicagoland, it has almost certainly crossed the threshold by now as well.

and as of 2020, the charlotte MSA was right on the national average.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 7, 2022 at 5:11 PM.
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 4:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
"minority majority" usually means that all non-white groups, collectively, outweigh the NH-white population, not any single one of the minority macro-demos by itself.

in which case SF and atlanta, and a bunch of others, have been minority majority for a while now.

going by 2020 MSA figures (as opposed to the UA figures from OP), here are all the 1M+ MSAs from most to least white:

  1. pittsburgh: 82.2%
  2. cincinnati: 75.9%
  3. grand rapids: 75.7%
  4. buffalo: 73.0%
  5. rochester: 72.9%
  6. providence: 71.6%
  7. louisville: 71.5%
  8. minneapolis: 71.2%
  9. st. louis: 70.3%
  10. columbus: 69.1%

  11. portland: 68.7%
  12. kansas city: 68.5%
  13. nashville: 68.3%
  14. salt lake city: 68.3%
  15. indianapolis: 68.2%
  16. cleveland: 67.4%
  17. boston: 66.6%
  18. milwaukee: 64.1%
  19. hartford: 63.9%
  20. detroit: 63.6%

  21. denver: 61.2%
  22. tampa: 59.5%
  23. birmingham: 59.4%
  24. jacksonville: 59.4%
  25. oklahoma city: 59.3%
  26. philadelphia: 59.1%
  27. tulsa: 59.0%
  28. raleigh: 58.3%
  29. seattle: 57.9%
  30. charlotte: 57.8%

    US National average: 57.8%

  31. richmond: 55.3%
  32. phoenix: 53.6%
  33. baltimore: 52.7%
  34. virginia beach: 52.3%
  35. tucson: 51.5%
  36. chicago: 50.2%
  37. austin: 49.6%
  38. new orleans: 48.3%
  39. sacramento: 48.3%
  40. atlanta: 43.7%

  41. orlando: 43.5%
  42. new york: 43.3%
  43. san diego: 43.1%
  44. dallas: 42.8%
  45. washington DC: 42.3%
  46. memphis: 41.3%
  47. las vegas: 39.4%
  48. san francisco: 36.2%
  49. houston: 33.7%
  50. san antonio: 32.8%

  51. riverside: 29.4%
  52. miami: 29.1%
  53. san jose: 28.8%
  54. los angeles: 28.5%
  55. fresno: 27.0%
  56. honolulu: 17.3%


all 20 of the MSAs below chicago on the list above are now "minority majority".

and with that way white people continue to flee chicagoland, it has almost certainly crossed the threshold by now as well.

and as of 2020, the charlotte MSA was right on the national average.
Not a huge surprise but... the list of cities below the national average reads like a who's who list of hot metro areas, while the cities above the national average reads most like a list of metros that are past their prime.
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 4:43 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Not a huge surprise but... the list of cities below the national average reads like a who's who list of hot metro areas, while the cities above the national average reads most like a list of metros that are past their prime.
yeah, in a general sense. the top of the list is dominated by "the north" (midwest/rustbelt/new england). it's america's "white belt".

in fact, including all of bos-wash in "the north", there are only 4 1M+ MSAs below the national white average in the entire region: DC, NYC, Chicago & Baltimore (philly is really close).

the other 22 are all in the south (11) or west (11).


but seattle, denver, boston, salt lake city, nashville, portland, and minneapolis are all north of the national white average, and would be considered "successful" MSAs.

and chicago, baltimore, and memphis are below the national white average and are somewhat stagnant/slow growth.

so there are exceptions both ways.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 7, 2022 at 7:31 PM.
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  #47  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 6:55 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Not a huge surprise but... the list of cities below the national average reads like a who's who list of hot metro areas, while the cities above the national average reads most like a list of metros that are past their prime.
Oh yeah, Fresno and Virginia Beach are top of my list for sure
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  #48  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 7:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Nice to see SF and Atlanta reach the exclusive minority majority status club. There’s LA/San Bernardino, Houston, Miami, and now SF/Oakland and Atlanta. Who else and who is next?
I think what you mean is they have non-white pluralities.

Meaning there is no majority but a certain group is the largest. In other words, Blacks are now the plurality of Atlanta's Urban Area population.

Definitely those Urban Areas are that.
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  #49  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 7:13 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I think what you mean is they have non-white pluralities.

Meaning there is no majority but a certain group is the largest. In other words, Blacks are now the plurality of Atlanta's Urban Area population.
yeah, "a non-white plurality" is what ocman meant.


i think memphis, san antonio, and riverside are the only UAs from from the page 1 list that have a single outright non-white majority (Miami, LA, and SJ are pretty close).

honolulu would be there as well had it been included.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 8, 2022 at 1:42 PM.
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  #50  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2022, 5:29 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Oh yeah, Fresno and Virginia Beach are top of my list for sure
I added growth percentage of MSAs between 2010 and 2020 in parenthesis. The percentages in green are in the top 1/3rd by rate of growth. The ones in red are in the bottom 1/3rd. Nearly all of the 10 "whitest" metros were in the bottom 1/3rd by growth. Two-thirds of the slow growth metros are whiter than the national average.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
  1. pittsburgh: 82.2% (1%)
  2. cincinnati: 75.9% (6%)
  3. grand rapids: 75.7% (9%)
  4. buffalo: 73.0% (3%)
  5. rochester: 72.9% (1%)
  6. providence: 71.6% (5%)
  7. louisville: 71.5% (7%)
  8. minneapolis: 71.2% (11%)
  9. st. louis: 70.3% (1%)
  10. columbus: 69.1% (12%)

  11. portland: 68.7% (13%)
  12. kansas city: 68.5% (9%)
  13. nashville: 68.3% (21%)
  14. salt lake city: 68.3% (16%)
  15. indianapolis: 68.2% (12%)
  16. cleveland: 67.4% (1%)
  17. boston: 66.6% (9%)
  18. milwaukee: 64.1% (1%)
  19. hartford: 63.9% (0%)
  20. detroit: 63.6% (2%)

  21. denver: 61.2% (17%)
  22. tampa: 59.5% (14%)
  23. birmingham: 59.4% (5%)
  24. jacksonville: 59.4% (19%)
  25. oklahoma city: 59.3% (14%)
  26. philadelphia: 59.1% (5%)
  27. tulsa: 59.0% (8%)
  28. raleigh: 58.3% (25%)
  29. seattle: 57.9% (17%)
  30. charlotte: 57.8% (19%)

    US National average: 57.8%

  31. richmond: 55.3% (11%)
  32. phoenix: 53.6% (16%)
  33. baltimore: 52.7% (5%)
  34. virginia beach: 52.3% (5%)
  35. tucson: 51.5% (6%)
  36. chicago: 50.2% (2%)
  37. austin: 49.6% (33%)
  38. new orleans: 48.3% (7%)
  39. sacramento: 48.3% (12%)
  40. atlanta: 43.7% (15%)

  41. orlando: 43.5% (25%)
  42. new york: 43.3% (7%)
  43. san diego: 43.1% (7%)
  44. dallas: 42.8% (20%)
  45. washington DC: 42.3% (13%)
  46. memphis: 41.3% (2%)
  47. las vegas: 39.4% (16%)
  48. san francisco: 36.2% (10%)
  49. houston: 33.7% (20%)
  50. san antonio: 32.8% (19%)

  51. riverside: 29.4% (9%)
  52. miami: 29.1% (10%)
  53. san jose: 28.8% (9%)
  54. los angeles: 28.5% (3%)
  55. fresno: 27.0% (8%)
  56. honolulu: 17.3% (7%)
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2022, 6:08 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I added growth percentage of MSAs between 2010 and 2020 in parenthesis. The percentages in green are in the top 1/3rd by rate of growth. The ones in red are in the bottom 1/3rd. Nearly all of the 10 "whitest" metros were in the bottom 1/3rd by growth. Two-thirds of the slow growth metros are whiter than the national average.
And as White population declined for the first time ever and declined big (196.8 mi to 191.7 mi), that's not surprising.

BTW, as US Census Bureau correct their forms that induced Hispanics to check White, now we can finally drop the non-Hispanic White label. If we do that, there are 204.3 million Whites in the US.
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 3:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ocman View Post
Nice to see SF and Atlanta reach the exclusive minority majority status club. There’s LA/San Bernardino, Houston, Miami, and now SF/Oakland and Atlanta. Who else and who is next?
Why is that "nice"? It's not a good or bad thing to be a color or ethnic background, it just is.
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 4:12 AM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
Absolutely, they released the 2021 Urban Area data together with other geographical areas and for sure, the actual land sizes might be different, but if it's based on how they've changed in the past, it's not going to change much in most areas. We should definitely keep this in mind.

Thanks for pointing this out!
Regardless if they're actually visible IN LA - to those outside LA, who maybe have only been there briefly and stayed around certain areas, the way the city is presented in media/culture absolutely would lead one to believe Blacks make up way more than 8% of the city's population.

I think a lot of peoples' perception of urban LA the last 40 or so years was developed through gangster rap, as well as movies like Boyz n the Hood that are predominantly Black-focused.
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 4:31 AM
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I don't think there is anyone in the world outside the US who grew up consuming American popular culture who would believe that LA is only 7.8% black.
I understand what you mean but look at raw numbers. That's basically the entire Buffalo urbanized area, almost a million people.

When an urbanized area is huge by North American standards, 12M+, even 10% is 1.2M a good sized city

In 1970, the city of LA was ~18% Black, in 1990 14% Black (meteoric rise of hip hop, movies, culture), while in 2020 the Black population 8.3%, while Hispanic population increased to ~47% and Asian population to just under 12%

Last edited by Wigs; Oct 10, 2022 at 7:20 PM.
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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 6:53 AM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post


-Hispanic isn't a race, so the Hispanic numbers will be pulled the same.
-The Asian and Black numbers below will include those that are "Asian/Black Alone" and "Asian/Black in Combination".
-The White numbers will only be those that are "White Alone".
This would imply that Asian/Black in Combination are double counted in these topline totals and that many Hispanic people are being double counted as well (people are instructed to choose a race, so are also white or black or native, but many Hispanic and Latino people leave that blank or check other, which is a well documented statistical problem for a variety of reasons since the Census introduced that question).

Edit: for instance, it is possible - and for many is the case - to be both white alone and hispanic, and have properly filled out the census.

For these reasons, and others, I have found data that uses the following to be most accurate and faithful to the way most Americans see things:
• White (non-Hispanic/Latino) alone
• Black, African American (non-Hispanic/Latino) alone
• Asian, Pacific Islander, Indigenous Alaskan (non-Hispanic/Latino) alone
• Other (non-Hispanic/Latino) alone — generally Native American
• Multiracial (including Hispanic/Latino+Black, Asian, Pacific Islander, and Indigenous Alaskan)
• Hispanic/Latino (generally the balance of the total minus all of the above)

Another note is that Arab Americans and many others who would not generally self-describe as such, are also counted as white and that multiple cities may have fewer pastry-corn-bread whites than these toplines suggest.
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)

Last edited by wwmiv; Oct 10, 2022 at 7:22 AM.
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  #56  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 7:03 AM
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To put the west vs east difference in perspective, according to the urban area numbers Minneapolis is the least black ua in the Midwest but still has a larger black percentage than any ua in the west besides Las Vegas.
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  #57  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 7:18 AM
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Why is that "nice"? It's not a good or bad thing to be a color or ethnic background, it just is.
Agreed. As if there should be a push to shift demographics in a certain direction.
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  #58  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 7:41 AM
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Agreed. As if there should be a push to shift demographics in a certain direction.
Would it be wrong to hope for more multiracial people, not for the sake of it, but because of what it would signify?

(A slow but steady healing of our great national wound)
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #59  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2022, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
yeah, in a general sense. the top of the list is dominated by "the north" (midwest/rustbelt/new england). it's america's "white belt".

in fact, including all of bos-wash in "the north", there are only 4 1M+ MSAs below the national white average in the entire region: DC, NYC, Chicago & Baltimore (philly is really close).

the other 22 are all in the south (11) or west (11).


but seattle, denver, boston, salt lake city, nashville, portland, and minneapolis are all north of the national white average, and would be considered "successful" MSAs.

and chicago, baltimore, and memphis are below the national white average and are somewhat stagnant/slow growth.

so there are exceptions both ways.
And now we could include Los Angeles CSA on the stagnant list as well.
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  #60  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2022, 2:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Comrade View Post
Regardless if they're actually visible IN LA - to those outside LA, who maybe have only been there briefly and stayed around certain areas, the way the city is presented in media/culture absolutely would lead one to believe Blacks make up way more than 8% of the city's population.

I think a lot of peoples' perception of urban LA the last 40 or so years was developed through gangster rap, as well as movies like Boyz n the Hood that are predominantly Black-focused.
The OJ Simpson trial certainly gave the impression that L.A. was basically a "black and white" city.
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