RealtyHop Housing Affordability Index: August 2022

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Haha. I forgot the plane gets diverted there. Those aren't pillows!

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

No, I don’t believe that’s the case for Chicago.

It’s affordable on paper, and affordable in reality, except for a few notable high end areas.

Chicago’s affordability is due to a huge ring of stable middle-class bungalow belt neighborhoods. Also, multifamily units are affordable everywhere, even most of the North side.

Here’s a rough approximation of units by neighborhood tiers.

Basically, the North side cancels out most of the poorer South and West side. Then, the Northwest and Southwest neighborhoods which are huge in their own right, solidify the city’s real estate in the middle-class price range.

Expensive
North: 350K Units

Middle class, Working class
Northwest: 300K Units
Southwest: 200K Units

Poor, Lower Middle
West: 150K Units
South: 250K Units


Nobody on their right mind would tell you to avoid Jefferson Park, for example.

Jefferson Park
https://www.zillow.com/jefferson-park-chicago-il/sold/

Clearing
https://www.zillow.com/homes/Clearing,-Chicago,-IL_rb/

Interesting, thank you! In looking through some of the real estate in your links and beyond it is amazing to see what one's money can buy there vs here now e.g. a rowhome here barely over 1000 sq ft and a middle unit pushing $400K. Philly was a cheaper urban alternative for many years and of course you can still find pockets and/or if you are willing to put some work into a property but it's nowhere near the bargain that it once was. Some locals will say, "Yeah but it's still cheaper than NYC," and that is true but I don't find that to be a relevant comparison for most.

[jd3189]

Even in the most expensive metros, if I am able to keep rent/mortgage payments to less than or equal to a third of my income. I’m good. I’m not about paying an arm and a leg for an old house that possibly needs work done to it.

[DCReid]

Here’s How Much a New Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Surged in 10 US Metros:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-...164405037.html

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Here’s How Much a New Monthly Mortgage Payment Has Surged in 10 US Metros:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-...164405037.html

Idaho blows my mind. Portland might have hobos but now were cheaper than Boise and SLC. Thats wacky. That Santa Clara mortgage makes me feel poor. We refinanced back in 2020 and got super cheap rate. Id hate to see Portland payments now.

[JManc]

9 fucking grand here in the Bay Area?

[DCReid]

A reason why NYC's affordability will not get better anytime soon and Manhattan may well end up only for the rich...

From: https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news...density-115576

(September 26, 2022 Miriam Hall, Bisnow New York City)

"New York’s housing shortage is causing an affordability crisis, and a practice of developers building fewer units than sites allow is only set to make the problem worse.

Zoning regulations and community reticence to density is often held up as a major reason why little headway is being made to push up supply. But a trend toward larger new buildings — but with few apartments — is also playing a part, The New York Times reports. The publication found multiple instances of new residential buildings with fewer units than they replaced, even where far more could be built as-of right.

“In a city that’s desperate for housing, all kinds of housing, how can you allow a builder to build fewer units?” said Gale Brewer, a former Manhattan borough president and current city council member for the district that includes the Upper West Side. “The idea that these people can get away without building anything affordable is mind-boggling to me.”

Urban planners told the Times development sites in high-density areas of the city are few and far between, and precious opportunities to build more housing is being lost. For example, Naftali Group’s Upper East Side tower called The Benson was finished last year and offered 15 units priced between almost $13M up to $35M — all of which have found buyers. The site used to have prewar buildings, and it was zoned to allow as many as 83 apartments, per the Times.

Similarly, at 15 West 96th St., the developer is putting up a 21-unit condo building at a site that would allow for 66 units. At 1165 Madison Ave., there is a new 13-story building with just 11 units. The site could have had 88 units — but instead one apartment alone spans 13K SF, four stories and traded for $65M.

As a result, in the decade leading up to 2020, the Upper East Side lost more units than any other neighborhood, largely because of this practice, per the Department of City Planning.

“It’s a very simple answer: It’s the market demand,” Naftali founder Miki Naftali told the Times.

As well as the Benson, the company is attempting to build a planned 210-foot tower with 45 apartments on West 84th Street. Even though the building is three times the height of the current property, if Naftali goes ahead with condominium, a net of 83 homes will be lost.

Rents in the city have reached record highs this year, with Manhattan reaching an average of $5,113 per month in July, an all-time high, and rents have similarly broken records in Brooklyn and Queens.

In August, Manhattan’s median rent and median net effective rent were the second-highest on record, which ended a stretch of six straight months of record rents. At the same time, the number of affordable housing units produced in the last year has plummeted.

The Department of Housing Preservation and Development financed the creation and preservation of 16,042 units in the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2021, Crain’s New York Business reports. That marks a 45% drop from the previous year, according to the mayor’s Management Report.

Contact Miriam Hall at miriam.hall@bisnow.com"

[Crawford]

That article, while true, lacks context.

The Upper East Side is already an extremely wealthy neighborhood. Excepting maybe 1965-1980, with suburban flight, nothing has been built in that area except for large family-sized apartments, for more than a century. It would be really dumb for developers to build small units in such a family-oriented area.

Also, the NIMBYs massively downzoned the area, with strict height limits on most lots. That's the main reason there are fewer units created. And the strict building envelopes incentivize the most profitable use (superluxury housing). Gale Brewer, quoted in the article, is a super-NIMBY nutso politican who opposes almost any new housing. People like her are the primary reason for the housing shortage.

There are many neighborhoods in Manhattan where developers still build small housing units. Lower East Side and East Village have lots of newer small units. The family-oriented Upper East and Upper West Sides have few such units.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

That article, while true, lacks context.

The Upper East Side is already an extremely wealthy neighborhood. Excepting maybe 1965-1980, with suburban flight, nothing has been built in that area except for large family-sized apartments, for more than a century. It would be really dumb for developers to build small units in such a family-oriented area.

Also, the NIMBYs massively downzoned the area, with strict height limits on most lots. That's the main reason there are fewer units created. And the strict building envelopes incentivize the most profitable use (superluxury housing). Gale Brewer, quoted in the article, is a super-NIMBY nutso politican who opposes almost any new housing. People like her are the primary reason for the housing shortage.

There are many neighborhoods in Manhattan where developers still build small housing units. Lower East Side and East Village have lots of newer small units. The family-oriented Upper East and Upper West Sides have few such units.

Is the number of people/household is decreasing in Manhattan or it's been the same for decades?

I don't know about NYC specifically, but people are having fewer children and population is aging. Would you see UES and UWS to become less family-sized, to have their apartments downsized in the future?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Is the number of people/household is decreasing in Manhattan or it's been the same for decades?

It has generally been decreasing for decades, but flat, more recently. The number of Manhattan families with children has risen slightly in recent years.

Originally Posted by Yuri

I don't know about NYC specifically, but people are having fewer children and population is aging. Would you see UES and UWS to become less family-sized, to have their apartments downsized in the future?

The UES and UWS have some of the most desirable, elite private schools in the U.S. They're extremely desirable for wealthy families with children.

If anything, housing unit sizes on UES and UWS are getting bigger. Basically all the newer buildings have huge apartments, usually encompassing multiple floors. The article references a new UES building named the Bellemont. A few months ago, they sold a 13,000 square foot, $67 million apartment:

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articl...on-01635959945

Yes, nationally, and in the NYC area, family sizes are getting smaller, and there's generally less need for large units. But wealthy families are obviously a small niche.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Thought this was an interesting perspective, since recently we were talking about the Bay Area and its astronomical housing prices, but taking into account the astronomical income, it's not as insane as one might think.

Here's how SF and some other Bay Area cities fared. Just for fun, I thought I'd add Chicago since it's commonly viewed here as the standard for housing affordability.

7. San Francisco, CA
Household income - $126,117
Home price - $1,338,000
Share of income - 66.56%

11. Oakland, CA
Household income - $82,649
Home price - $798,000
Share of income - 60.85%

15. San Jose, CA
Household income - $122,914
Home price - $1,100,000
Share of income - 55.76%

16. Fremont, CA
Household income - $149,563
Home price - $1,338,000
Share of income - 55.14%

47. Chicago, IL
Household income - $64,367
Home price - $359,900
Share of income - 38.36%

It's not realistic to use simple median hh income as the measuring stick for buying a home imo.

Largest Cities by Median Income, Two-Earner Families, 2021:
San Francisco, CA $225,209
Washington, DC $210,935
Seattle, WA $209,584
San Jose, CA $187,105
Atlanta, GA $154,796
Oakland, CA $154,164
Austin, TX $148,172
Portland, OR $136,785
Denver, CO $136,463
San Diego, CA $135,250
Minneapolis, MN $128,211
Chicago, IL $125,139
Boston, MA $123,063
Raleigh, NC $120,420
Charlotte, NC $117,751
Tampa, FL $115,930
New Orleans, LA $114,297
Sacramento, CA $113,028
Virginia Beach, CA $112,876
Albuquerque, NM $112,871
Colorado Springs, CO $111,887
New York, NY $111,374
Long Beach, CA $110,675
Baltimore, MD $108,168
Los Angeles, CA $107,376
Fort Worth, TX $107,145
Nashville, TN $103,460
Kansas City, MO $101,544
Philadelphia, PA $101,490
Phoenix, AZ $99,164
Dallas, TX $98,194
Mesa, AZ $97,851
Indianapolis, IN $96,477
Louisville, KY $96,159
Jacksonville, FL $95,185
Las Vegas, NV $94,890
Oklahoma City, OK $94,445
Fresno, CA $92,472
Columbus, OH $92,103
Houston, TX $91,117
San Antonio, TX $85,713
Memphis, TN $84,433
Milwaukee, WI $81,537
Miami, FL $78,978
Tucson, AZ $77,366
El Paso, TX $75,708
Detroit, MI $70,590



Here's all cities included in the 2021 census estimates $150k+

City, State, Median Income, 2-Earner Families, 2021(MSA):
$150,000+
Bethesda, MD $250,000+(Washington)
Dublin, CA $250,000+(San Francisco)
Mountain View, CA $250,000+(San Jose)
Palo Alto, CA $250,000+(San Jose)
Newport Beach, CA $248,622(Los Angeles)
Fremont, CA $245,994(San Francisco)
Sunnyvale, CA $240,997(San Jose)
San Ramon, CA $235,951(San Francisco)
Redwood City, CA $233,391(San Francisco)
Santa Clara, CA $228,644(San Jose)
San Francisco, CA $225,209(San Francisco)
Arlington, VA $217,128(Washington)
Berkeley, CA $215,139(San Francisco)
Pleasanton, CA $214,380(San Francisco)
San Mateo, CA $213,306(San Francisco)
Milpitas, CA $211,074(San Jose)
Washington, DC $210,935(Washington)
Seattle, WA $209,584(Seattle)
Santa Monica, CA $206,028(Los Angeles)
Davis, CA $203,589(Sacramento)
Naperville, IL $200,763(Chicago)
Livermore, CA $197,772(San Francisco)
Alameda, CA $195,078(San Francisco)
Walnut Creek, CA $192,438(San Francisco)
Alpharetta, GA $191,488(Atlanta)
Johns Creek, CA $190,644(Atlanta)
Folsom, CA $190,425(Sacramento)
Thousand Oaks, CA $188,462(Oxnard)
Carmel, IN $186,769(Indianapolis)
Highlands Ranch, CO $186,266(Denver)
San Jose, CA $187,105(San Jose)
Redondo Beach, CA $186,052(Los Angeles)
Mission Viejo, CA $183,384(Los Angeles)
Alexandria, VA $180,851(Washington)
Carlsbad, CA $180,139(San Diego)
Castro Valley, CA $179,453(San Francisco)
Evanston, IL $178,662(Chicago)
Yorba Linda, CA $178,496(Los Angeles)
Irvine, CA $174,196(Los Angeles)
Lake Forest, CA $173,909(Los Angeles)
Pasadena, CA $173,380(Los Angeles)
Chino Hills, CA $169,211(Riverside)
Centennial, CO $163,696(Denver)
Union City, CA $163,058(San Francisco)
Sandy Springs, GA $163,008(Atlanta)
Roseville, CA $162,963(Sacramento)
Boulder, CO $162,011(Boulder)
Stamford, CT $160,169(Bridgeport)
Huntington Beach, CA $158,421(Los Angeles)
Fishers, IN $157,663(Indianapolis)
San Marcos, CA $156,507(San Diego)
Atlanta, GA $154,796(Atlanta)
Columbia, MD $154,206(Baltimore)
Oakland, CA $154,164(San Francisco)
Torrance, CA $154,111(Los Angeles)
Norwalk, CT $153,946(Bridgeport)
Arlington Heights, IL $151,778(Chicago)
Tustin, CA $151,679(Los Angeles)
Broomfield, CO $151,017(Denver)
Scottsdale, AZ $150,737(Phoenix)