CHICAGO | General Discussions

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by marothisu

By the way, I hope IPI's response doesn't get lost in this. They're really grasping at straws for that one. Somehow they fail to mention how far off the Census estimate programs were from 2010 to 2020 - predicting around 250K loss but really lost 18K. But then they say "Well, the new estimates show a huge loss."

Why would anyone even trust those estimate programs anymore for Illinois after 2010-2020 showed that the same programs were wildly inaccurate? There is no methodology change with these programs either.

They aren't trying to inform, they are trying to push specific policies. No matter what the actual facts show, the "policy" recommendation never changes. This one is easy because most people don't understand the nuances of the Census data like you do, so they can just deflect.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by marothisu

^ Well, they aren't wholly wrong on that. Any place you are should work for everyone to live, work, play, etc. But this is in general a generic thing for anyone to say - just because you're growing either doesn't mean you are the best place to live. Totally independent things. People tolerate various things - NYC has high taxes, the subway stations are a million degrees in the summer, it's very expensive, apartments/condos are small and a lot of the time old and not in great condition, and there's trash bags on the streets in numerous areas - none of these things make a place great to live in. But it didn't stop NYC from growing a ton from 2010 to 2020.

What those like Crain's are failing to do is go back and think about what problems are actually affecting things like economic growth vs. things they thought were affecting them but probably aren't as big of factors as once thought.

Right the problem is the persistent negativity. "Don't get distracted by some good news, here's some more gloom and doom"

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

They aren't trying to inform, they are trying to push specific policies. No matter what the actual facts show, the "policy" recommendation never changes. This one is easy because most people don't understand the nuances of the Census data like you do, so they can just deflect.

exactly.

with outfits like IPI, they let their storyline (agenda) drive the data, instead of the inverse.

and at that point, it's not journalism anymore, just propaganda.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

They aren't trying to inform, they are trying to push specific policies. No matter what the actual facts show, the "policy" recommendation never changes. This one is easy because most people don't understand the nuances of the Census data like you do, so they can just deflect.

I get it. It's just kind of ridiculous. If they wanted to get their message across better, they'd say "okay the state gained some population which is good. population growth is great. HOWEVER, IL still lags behind these other states for growth and this is what those states are doing from a policy perspective" (whatever aligns with what they're trying to push).

Instead, they're just doubling down on trying to be like "yeah well, the latest estimates that were shown to be WAY off are estimating a big loss again." Kind of dumb if you ask me that is their angle instead of just saying it's growth but still slow and lags behind these other states which implement similar to what we're pushing.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Anything they do does not consider at all the Decennial data when it comes out. They're completely different programs and different methodologies .I actually asked them this numerous years ago and this is what they told me (still have the email):

Yes, thanks. I think you have said this in the past.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Yes, thanks. I think you have said this in the past.

The Population Estimates one - which is what the media now cites - does change their population base to match the 10 year Census. But this is just 1 source of data of many they consider.


This is really how they base it:
Population Base + Births - Deaths + Migration = Population Estimate

https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...ment-v2021.pdf


They take into consideration many sources of data like IRS filing data for people aged 0-64, department of health data, etc. For people aged 65+ they rely on Medicare data. They also rely on social security data.

There was some analysis done here and the Chicago counties were obviously some of the most off in the country. Most places in the country were pretty accurate in terms of population estimates vs. the reality. Cook County, Queens County, and Kings County (Brooklyn) were among the worst. There's an interactive map here:

https://www.rdniehaus.com/census-pop...tes-vs-counts/

Another reason for errors in the Population Estimates is the COVID-19 pandemic. Remote work policies may have caused certain populations like college students to be counted as living in their home county rather than in their institution’s county. It is also worth noting that New York City substantially increased their outreach for the 2020 census, including adding many more housing units to the Census Bureau’s outreach list, which facilitated more accurate and encompassing counts. The population of Suffolk County, NY was also undercounted, though for different reasons. Notable for the Hamptons and other Long Island getaways, Suffolk County may have attracted significant populations of remote workers during the pandemic, who then established residency during the 2020 Census.

It should be noted that even for the largest discrepancies between the Population Estimates and the 2020 Census, the Estimates almost always matched the direction of population change (see Table 2). The exceptions are Cook County, IL and Suffolk County, NY, where the Population Estimates expected a population decline in 2020 relative to 2010, but the 2020 Census counts showed that their populations increased.

..
Factors such as news about the controversial citizenship question on the Census (which ultimately was not added), language barriers, and an increase in immigration enforcement actions near the border, may have all reduced minorities’ participation in the 2020 Census, leading to undercounting in these counties. Additionally, such developments might have spurred increased migration to New York and Illinois, which are two other states with large immigrant populations. Notably the 2020 Census for New York and Illinois showed their populations had increased much more than expected per the Vintage 2020 Population Estimates.

..

Alternatively, it is possible that inaccurate estimates stem from over- and under-counting in the 2010 Census, which was used as the base for the 2010-2020 Vintages of Population Estimates. For the counties that comprise New York City, for example, hundreds of thousands of existing housing units were only recently reported to the Census Bureau.

The last bit is what I had initially thought when the data came out. That 2010 may have been very undercounted in Chicago/Illinois and this corrects some of that. The paragraph before that is interesting how they say a possible explanation for undercounting in the NYC and Chicago areas could be due to sudden increased and not well documented migration to NY and IL.

[Investing In Chicago]

Damn, this is terrible. I used to see this guy quite a bit when I would run downtown early mornings, I even bought him coffee a couple times.

https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/05...6mvCH9WdGK92xo

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

Damn, this is terrible. I used to see this guy quite a bit when I would run downtown early mornings, I even bought him coffee a couple times.

https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/05...6mvCH9WdGK92xo

What in the flying fuck is wrong with people? The city really needs to step it up and put an end to stupid nonsense like this in River North. It's only going to get worse as the city gets busy with Summer traffic.

[left of center]

I had heard about this. Absolutely terrible. I hope they catch the derelict who did this.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by left of center

I had heard about this. Absolutely terrible. I hope they catch the derelict who did this.

Some psychopath from Melrose Park.

Guardia was first identified by a Melrose Park police officer who saw Chicago police’s public bulletin that showed the attacker with a face tattoo and wearing a distinctive white hoodie, Hanichak said. The officer knew Guardia since childhood and also saw him recently wearing the same outfit at a plasma center in Melrose Park, where the officer works security, Hanichak said.

Guardia was arrested Friday in Melrose Park wearing the same clothes, Hanichak said. Guardia allegedly identified himself in surveillance video as the attacker.

During questioning, Guardia “said he is an angry person and decided he is going to set something on fire,” Hanichak said. Guardia provided no other motive than “being an angry person,” he said. He claimed he had found the cup of gasoline and wanted to burn some trash. He denied knowing that he lit a person on fire, Hanichak said.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...guardia-burned

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Some psychopath from Melrose Park.


https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...guardia-burned

Glad he is apprehended. Homeless are vulnerable (which I gather the victim was), and there have been heinous crimes against them across the nation over the years. And some reports the problem in increasing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md...advocates-say/

[marothisu]

Recently discovered that Redfin keeps track of users searching - source metro area and destination metro area.

https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/migration/

So for those in out of state metros searching for Chicago area real estate, here are the top metros with the pct of those out of state metro searches from there. This is Q1 data:

1. Denver MSA: 11.2%
2. Los Angeles MSA: 5.3%
3. DC MSA: 4.9%
4. South Bend MSA: 4.6%
5. Boston MSA: 4.4%
6. NYC MSA: 4.2%
7. Bay Area: 3.6%
8. Minneapolis MSA: 3.3%
9T. Milwaukee MSA: 2.5%
9T. Seattle MSA: 2.5%


Just for reference, the highest in state metro in the searches is Rockford MSA at 3.6%. Interestingly, Chicago is the #1 MSA in the US with people looking to stay (i.e. people from the same metro searching properties in the same metro).

[twister244]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Recently discovered that Redfin keeps track of users searching - source metro area and destination metro area.

https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/migration/

So for those in out of state metros searching for Chicago area real estate, here are the top metros with the pct of those out of state metro searches from there. This is Q1 data:

1. Denver MSA: 11.2%
2. Los Angeles MSA: 5.3%
3. DC MSA: 4.9%
4. South Bend MSA: 4.6%
5. Boston MSA: 4.4%
6. NYC MSA: 4.2%
7. Bay Area: 3.6%
8. Minneapolis MSA: 3.3%
9T. Milwaukee MSA: 2.5%
9T. Seattle MSA: 2.5%


Just for reference, the highest in state metro in the searches is Rockford MSA at 3.6%. Interestingly, Chicago is the #1 MSA in the US with people looking to stay (i.e. people from the same metro searching properties in the same metro).

That is super interesting...... Why is Denver at the top of the list? Maybe there's more crossover than I was aware of. I spent five years there, but never got a strong Chicago vibe from people.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by twister244

That is super interesting...... Why is Denver at the top of the list? Maybe there's more crossover than I was aware of. I spent five years there, but never got a strong Chicago vibe from people.

Proximity. (Without the crazy West Coast prices)

On that note, the sunbelt has a lot higher domestic migration to Chicago than people think (if we discount snowbird retiree relocation)

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by twister244

That is super interesting...... Why is Denver at the top of the list? Maybe there's more crossover than I was aware of. I spent five years there, but never got a strong Chicago vibe from people.

Chicago is far and away the most searched metro area on Redfin for people in Denver. It's literally 4.25X percentage points higher than #2 (Los Angeles). I've seen a bunch of Colorado plates here but interestingly still not as many as FL, TX, MO, and CA. Maybe about the same as NY and NJ though.

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Proximity. (Without the crazy West Coast prices)

On that note, the sunbelt has a lot higher domestic migration to Chicago than people think (if we discount snowbird retiree relocation)

Yeah, and this will surprise some people but here's where Chicago shows up on the lists of various metro areas. So when I say #1, it means Chicago was the #1 most searched metro area in the US for that metro. #2 means 2nd most searched, etc.

Chicago #1 searched amongst Redfin users from...
Denver
Tampa
Cape Coral, FL
North Port, FL
Huntsville, AL
Charleston, SC
Knoxville
St. Louis
Indianapolis
Detroit
Grand Rapids
Des Moines
Columbus, OH
Appleton, WI
South Bend, IN
Madison, WI
Lansing, MI
Milwaukee
Minneapolis

#2
Cincinnati
Cleveland

#3
Phoenix
Nashville
Kalamazoo, MI
Burlington, VT

#4
Dallas
Portland, ME
Memphis
San Antonio
Omaha
Dayton
Tucson

#5
Austin
Miami
Houston
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Fort Collins, CO
Palm Bay, FL
Orlando

#6
Atlanta
Chattanooga
Asheville, NC
El Paso

#7
Boston
Santa Maria, CA
Birmingham, AL

#8
Las Vegas
Baton Rouge
Columbia, SC
Greensboro, NC
Greenville, SC
Lexington, KY
New Orleans

#9
Kahului, HI (Maui)
Raleigh
Salinas, CA

#10
Louisville
Richmond, VA
Little Rock

[Randomguy34]

Huh, I remember 2 weeks ago in the General Development thread we were discussing anecdotes of more Florida people moving here. Looks like we now have some evidence of how popular Chicago is to Florida residents.

Also, since the 2020 census' estimates for Illinois were way off (and likely Chicago's), how much faith should we place in the ACS survey's upcoming estimates? Will this year's release be calibrated off of the old 2020 data, or use the corrected estimates?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Huh, I remember 2 weeks ago in the General Development thread we were discussing anecdotes of more Florida people moving here. Looks like we now have some evidence of how popular Chicago is to Florida residents.

Also, since the 2020 census' estimates for Illinois were way off (and likely Chicago's), how much faith should we place in the ACS survey's upcoming estimates? Will this year's release be calibrated off of the old 2020 data, or use the corrected estimates?

It will for sure be interesting to see but I think ACS should always be taken with a grain of salt. They may get some of the general trends right like education, income, etc but I'll be interesting to see upcoming how some of the other data is. I think that the migration data for counties/states is releasing in August via 2020 ACS. It's also possible that ACS is getting some of the more solidly middle/upper middle/upper class neighborhoods pretty correct while they're getting the others like lower middle class or lower class areas not very correct.

The rise of the remote worker is definitely interesting. I found this vlogger on YouTube with like 900K subscribers and she is traveling around, staying in a few cities for a month or so at a time. Then she'll pick one to move to - I think she's from Seattle? Anyway Chicago sounds like it's near the top of her list but I think she represents a portion of workers who are moving around. I've been wondering lately if all the out of region license plates I've been seeing are people who actually moved here vs. remote workers who are going to work here for 3 months and then move onto the next city. But something like Redfin search data is interesting. Doesn't mean they move to every place they search, but I think someone who is looking continually at purchase prices in other places is probably at least somewhat serious about moving to somewhere and for longer than just a few months.

Also the Florida thing is interesting. Have an employee who lives in the burbs and said a few of his family friends/doctors moved to Florida during the pandemic not because "Fuck Illinois/Chicago!" but for some other reasons. Those reasons are kind of gone now, so he was thinking that some might end up moving back to the Chicago region soon.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Also the Florida thing is interesting. Have an employee who lives in the burbs and said a few of his family friends/doctors moved to Florida during the pandemic not because "Fuck Illinois/Chicago!" but for some other reasons. Those reasons are kind of gone now, so he was thinking that some might end up moving back to the Chicago region soon.

I think the West coast of Florida has always had strong ties to the Midwest.

I-95 is out of the question unless you are a masochist.

So the options to drive North were to take I-75 and shimmy over onto I-65 to avoid the Appalachians. Later on, the flight routes imitate this driving pattern. There are also quite a few companies with branches between Chicago/Milwaukee and Western FL.


If you are a middle-class young person in Florida with actual career ambitions and no family in the North, there are typically two paths open.

1 — Go to college in the North. Ivies and the Northeast universities in general are expensive and hard to get in. Midwest state colleges have good prospects and are a lot more manageable for Floridians who do not have Northeast incomes.

2 — Attend college in Orlando/Gainesvilles/Jacksonville, move to Tampa for a first job, then transfer North, often to Chicago. (Miami is an employment wasteland for people just out of college.)


For retirees, Summer in Florida is absolutely brutal. If the retiree has money, they will spend money for a second home in an area with nice Summers.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by twister244

That is super interesting...... Why is Denver at the top of the list? Maybe there's more crossover than I was aware of. I spent five years there, but never got a strong Chicago vibe from people.

Number looks out of line enough to be an anomaly. Could get a better idea if cmparing to past data or looking at the sample size. Maybe a business move (e.g., Molson moved people at some point) would skew numbers but seemingly not to that degree unless the sample is small and unrepresentative.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

Number looks out of line enough to be an anomaly. Could get a better idea if cmparing to past data or looking at the sample size. Maybe a business move (e.g., Molson moved people at some point) would skew numbers but seemingly not to that degree unless the sample is small and unrepresentative.

The number looks perfectly reasonable in the national context.

Philadelphia—> NYC: 11.8%
Boston —> NYC: 11.7%
Seattle —> LA: 8.9%
LA —> Dallas: 15.9%

People tend to disproportionately look for homes in nearby metros. Obviously Redfin does not track people moving for college, moving from overseas, or people who already have family contacts.

But the Chicago numbers are basically saying that if 1000 people were searching for Chicago real estate, 880 already live in Illinois and 120 live outside the state. Of those 120 looking, about 11-12 are from Denver.

That’s intuitive. Denver is close and often more expensive for the Redfin demographic than Chicago