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  #561  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 1:38 AM
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Originally Posted by ColSJ View Post
Not a fan of roping Saint John- Rothesay north through Grand Bay- Westfield and up into the smaller rural communities and to west towards Lepreau. These areas are heavily conservative and it would scratch at the voting power of the city.
Well, truth be told, I'm not a fan of his proposal for the Moncton riding either.

Moncton is in fact large enough to have a federal riding conforming just to our municipal boundary. The StatsCan estimate for the population of the city of Moncton is about 81,000, which would be just slightly greater than the average riding population for NB (10 ridings, provincial population estimate currently 802,000).

Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is a de facto Liberal riding. It is one of the safer Liberal ridings in the country. The anglophone population skews Conservative, but the Acadian vote is overwhelmingly Liberal, hence the Liberal dominance in elections here. It is fairer in provincial elections because there are anglophone neighbourhoods and francophone neighbourhoods, but at the federal level the Liberals win almost all the time.

This tendency would only harden if Riverview were lopped off but Dieppe remained. Even worse, the linguistic profile of the riding would change from 2/3rds anglophone 1/3rd francophone to more of a 50/50 split. This will affect who gets to represent our riding in parliament.

Even now, the real contest is to see who will be our local MP is during the Liberal riding nomination meeting. There are factions in the local Liberal membership (mostly anglophone/francophone), and almost always it is a francophone who secures the nomination. With a combined Moncton/Dieppe riding, I can virtually guarantee you that we will never see an anglophone MP from Moncton ever again.

Now, in some ways, this is a good thing (for Moncton). A fluently bilingual francophone from outside Quebec is almost always a shoe-in for a federal cabinet appointment. Since usually there is only ever one NB cabinet representative, this means that it will almost always be from Moncton (or possibly the north). At present we have two (francophone) federal cabinet representatives from southeastern NB - Dominic LeBlanc (the godfather of the Liberal party in NB) and Ginette Pettitpas-Taylor. This representation at the cabinet table is profoundly disproportionate. Halifax, a city three times the size of greater Moncton only has one member in cabinet. Southwestern Ontario is almost devoid of cabinet representation despite a population of about 5 million people. Most cabinet representatives from Ontario are from inner city Toronto.
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Last edited by MonctonRad; May 8, 2022 at 1:57 AM.
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  #562  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 2:11 AM
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Kind of surprised that no one is discussing the proposed Nova Scotia electoral redistribution:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2...p/index_e.aspx
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  #563  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 2:32 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Well, truth be told, I'm not a fan of his proposal for the Moncton riding either.
If any changes are to be made in the Metro Moncton area I would make Moncton its own riding and put Dieppe and Riverview together. However, you'd probably have to include some outer line area to make up for the population for that riding.

Similar to my point about Saint John and this applies to Fredericton is that the NB cities need good representation at all levels of government. The rural voice in this province is way too loud considering demographic trends and their contribution to the economy compared to the cities. At the provincial level, this is a serious problem.
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  #564  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 1:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
Kind of surprised that no one is discussing the proposed Nova Scotia electoral redistribution:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2...p/index_e.aspx
Sadly, I think the Halifax subforum tends to suck most of the Nova Scotian discussion away. Which tends to make the Atlantic Provinces forum mainly a New Brunswick forum with PEI and Cape Breton seasoning. So Nova Scotia specific discussion, while welcome, doesn't often come up.

Feel free to try to spur discussion, it always has to start somewhere.
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  #565  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 1:43 PM
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Agreed. The Halifax forumers rarely venture outside the Halifax subforum.

But, my two cents as a former Nova Scotia resident for nearly a decade, is that I find the proposed boundary changes nonsensical for several ridings.

In particular, the boundaries for Cape Breton/Antigonish and Sydney/Victoria are bizarre. It would make far more dense for the Sydney riding to extend down along the east coast of Cape Breton, and for western CB and the Highlands to be lumped in with Antigonish. The boundaries would be more logical, and there is a cultural affinity between Antigonish and western CB (Highland Scottish Catholic).

Pictou/Eastern Shore also makes little sense, but sometimes compromises have to be made. I find it unnecessary to make special note of the name "Preston" in the designation of the riding however. This is only a nod towards political correctness.

Acadian Shore/Shelburne is similar. There are areas included in this riding with little commonality of interest, but demographic and geographic interests mean that compromises have to be made. I would be happier with a name like Yarmouth/Annapolis though.

The other ridings are acceptable as far as I'm concerned. The most egregious abomination however is the division of the two Cape Breton ridings. This needs to be addressed.
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  #566  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 2:36 PM
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Thanks for the insight, Moncton. Without knowing much about Nova Scotia it's hard for me to understand whether the new boundaries make sense or not, so I appreciate the input. I know that the districts are usually drawn in such a way to reflect an even population distribution among all ridings, which can lead to some nonsense.

I feel like the last redistribution in NL was a big improvement over the pre-2015 boundaries, so I'm pretty curious to see if much of anything changes this time around.
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  #567  
Old Posted May 8, 2022, 6:15 PM
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The only one for me that strikes me as being particularly egregious is the Pictou-Eastern Shore-Preston one. There's nothing that really connects the Pictou County portion with the HRM portion. They should either put the Pictou County portion with Cumberland-Colchester or rejig the Cape Breton-Antigonish one so it works putting the Pictou County portion there.
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  #568  
Old Posted May 11, 2022, 10:48 PM
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A little preview of something that I'll be posting in the St. John's "NL Politics" thread; the 2021 poll-by-poll federal election results for NL. For a lot of rural towns, there are only one poll box, and such, is essentially a map of municipality results.

Color scale is strength of victory over the second place party at that poll. As example, a poll result with the Liberals winning 45% of the vote and the 2nd place Conservatives winning 30% of the vote is colored as a LIB +15% win. Essentially, the darker the color the stronger the result.
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  #569  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2022, 8:22 AM
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https://redecoupage-redistribution-2...=en-ca&prov=nb

Interactive map that shows the proposed boundary changes at the federal level.
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  #570  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2022, 1:24 PM
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For Moncton, this will mean that we will effectively have three federal MPs.

- Moncton/Dieppe
- Beauséjour (will include half of Dieppe and Shediac, as well as most of the extended Moncton commuter watershed)
- Fundy Royal/Riverview (although this will be a geographically large and diverse riding, Riverview will still be the largest community in the riding, and I imagine the political axis of the riding will tend towards Riverview and Albert County).

If I had any suggestions, it would have been to give all of Dieppe to Beauséjour (creating a new riding called Beauséjour/Dieppe) with rejigging of the boundaries otherwise. The city of Moncton itself has the population to justify it's own riding.
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  #571  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2022, 3:37 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post


For Moncton, this will mean that we will effectively have three federal MPs.

- Moncton/Dieppe
- Beauséjour (will include half of Dieppe and Shediac, as well as most of the extended Moncton commuter watershed)
- Fundy Royal/Riverview (although this will be a geographically large and diverse riding, Riverview will still be the largest community in the riding, and I imagine the political axis of the riding will tend towards Riverview and Albert County).

If I had any suggestions, it would have been to give all of Dieppe to Beauséjour (creating a new riding called Beauséjour/Dieppe) with rejigging of the boundaries otherwise. The city of Moncton itself has the population to justify it's own riding.
To me this makes a lot of sense. Riverview is essentially replacing Quispamsis as the largest community in Fundy Royal. Due to this west Saint John leaves the Saint John riding and is replaced with the KV area. This is not ideal but if the Moncton metro riding is going to be divided than it only makes sense for the Saint John one to be too.
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  #572  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2022, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post


For Moncton, this will mean that we will effectively have three federal MPs.

- Moncton/Dieppe
- Beauséjour (will include half of Dieppe and Shediac, as well as most of the extended Moncton commuter watershed)
- Fundy Royal/Riverview (although this will be a geographically large and diverse riding, Riverview will still be the largest community in the riding, and I imagine the political axis of the riding will tend towards Riverview and Albert County).

If I had any suggestions, it would have been to give all of Dieppe to Beauséjour (creating a new riding called Beauséjour/Dieppe) with rejigging of the boundaries otherwise. The city of Moncton itself has the population to justify it's own riding.
I live a 5 minute walk from Moncton I don't want to be lumped into a separate riding when I spend most of my time in Moncton and still consider myself a monctonian. Maybe include a 1km buffer around wheeler blvd as part of the Moncton riding and I'd be on board.
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  #573  
Old Posted Jun 29, 2022, 1:30 PM
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NL Redistribution has a proposal. It's pretty good, in my opinion, and they've improved on some of the district names. New borders may favor the Liberals based on 2021 voting results. I don't need to even look at the data to tell you that the Liberals would have won Coast of Bays under these boundaries.


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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
New Proposed Federal Electoral Districts & Boundaries










Minor boundary changes for our districts, along with some name changes. I like the new names, to be honest.

Some quick thoughts:

- The inclusion of the Bonavista North/Cape Freels area (I actually dont know what this part of the island is supposed to be called) into Notre Dame/current Coast of Bays district is good for the Liberals as this area has a tendency to vote Liberal.

- Losing Bonavista North/Cape Freels but gaining the Carbonear area is sort of a net neutral for Terra Nova/current Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. They lose one area of Liberal support and gain one back.

- Interesting enough, with these current boundaries, current Bonavista-Burin-Trinity MP Churence Rogers, who is from Centreville, will no longer have his home town within his districts boundaries.
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  #574  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2022, 7:14 PM
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Mayor Kate Rogers is proposing the bulk of Fredericton should be in 2 ridings:

Fredericton asks commission to create two new provincial ridings within city limits

Quote:
Basically the existing Fredericton South riding, and a The proposal has Fredericton South remaining largely unchanged, with areas of the city to the west, south and east of it brought together to form the new "Downtown-Hill-Skyline" riding.

Meanwhile, the area encompassing Fredericton North would become the riding of "Nashwaaksis-Devon," while areas further away from the city's core become Fredericton North.
Personally, I don't see it as a bad idea. The worry of losing MLA representation is a bit of a concern, but getting a bit of like with like representation wouldn't hurt.

I guess we'll see how things shake out with the bigger picture.
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  #575  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2022, 7:23 PM
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Rogers isn't wrong. Fredericton probably should be split into two ridings (Northside and Southside) rather than pin-wheeling the city and splitting the urban/rural vote. I think Fredericton South can lose quite a bit of territory towards Lincoln and still retain enough votes to remain as a riding on its own, although it's been a while since i've looked at the map. The Northside is a bit more difficult to carve up and really depends on how the Grand Lake and Stanley areas get distributed. It's a big jigsaw puzzle around Fredericton and Moncton these days.
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  #576  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2022, 8:49 PM
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The next nb provincial election seem to be maybe already decided. With Higgs losing support from many in the business community it seems we might see the Liberals and first time Female Premier. Not a liberal myself but I'm worried what she means doing politics different. The feds are doing the reverse libs to cons as is the case for us we never seem to be in tune
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  #577  
Old Posted Sep 14, 2022, 9:37 PM
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Smile

I'm going to predict Sue Holt will be next and final premier in a sovereign New Brunswick Ha I've got a question for you fine folk.

How often do you contact your MLA MP or Premier?
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  #578  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2022, 1:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ivegotaname View Post
I'm going to predict Sue Holt will be next and final premier in a sovereign New Brunswick Ha I've got a question for you fine folk.

How often do you contact your MLA MP or Premier?
As in what?
New Brunswick is merged into another province?
The end of responsible government?
We become some kind of military dictatorship?
Canada collapses and we're finally absorbed into St. Pierre and Miquelon?
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  #579  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2022, 5:12 PM
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I presented a map at the Saint John event last night. I submitted something vaguely similar but configured differently. 2 seats north of the river, one wholly in Fredericton and one including Devon and St. Mary's, and 2.5 south of the river,. with both seats north of the bypass entirely in city limits (the area south of the bypass are combined with New Maryland and parts of Lincoln).

https://imgur.com/a/XjhiWON
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  #580  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2022, 1:47 AM
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As in what?
New Brunswick is merged into another province?
The end of responsible government?
We become some kind of military dictatorship?
Canada collapses and we're finally absorbed into St. Pierre and Miquelon?
The best response haha.
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