Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

Based on the fact that May will show about a 50% increase in sales over April.

Showing signs that ask prices are finally being met by buyers. One month does not make a trend, but the sales increase will be a significant bounce off the lows we have experienced.

Hey am I missing something where is the 50% number from? If I’ve missed it please explain thanks.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by misher

Hey am I missing something where is the 50% number from? If I’ve missed it please explain thanks.

Its not a public number yet, and wont be until the board releases the numbers first week of June.

But the MoM increase in sales will be significant based on a running tally of sales.

Before anyone asks, no I'm not a realtor.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Even if so, that would still be well below the 10 year trend.

Definitely.

None of this is to say that the market isn't correcting, and wont likely continue to do so.

Its just not likely to be the "big one" many are still left hoping for.

The doom and gloom just isn't gloomy enough.

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

Its not a public number yet, and wont be until the board releases the numbers first week of June.

But the MoM increase in sales will be significant based on a running tally of sales.

Before anyone asks, no I'm not a realtor.

Great to get some inside information and see that things are moving towards normal. Thank you this is much appreciated. And no I’m not a realtor.

PS: Glad to see my guess on the guessing game wasn’t too far off.

[whatnext]

Amazing how many IBB posts start "I'm not a realtor but.."

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Amazing how many IBB posts start "I'm not a realtor but.."

I notice you didn't add the disclaimer to your post, are you hiding something?

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Amazing how many IBB posts start "I'm not a realtor but.."

I have kept track of the market, fairly consistently since 2009 when I bought my first unit.
I feel like its a necessary disclosure otherwise if you have anything positive to say about the market online you get accused of shilling or being a realtor.
This is something that hasn't changed since I first started looking into buying in 2008.
Online = Bears.
Real world = Bulls.

A lot of the sky is falling posts are very reminiscent of 2008/9.

I started condo shopping then around March, and kept on getting outbid on units until September 2009 when I purchased a unit that wasn't listed, after losing out on another in the same building.

The market turned on a dime back then too and the online communities refused to believe it - calling it a dead cat bounce, temporary blip, etc, etc.

I'm keeping a close eye on it this time around to see if history repeats it self - and I have a vested interest.
I sold an investment property in BC last year and would like to buy a rental in Vancouver.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

I have kept track of the market, fairly consistently since 2009 when I bought my first unit.
I feel like its a necessary disclosure otherwise if you have anything positive to say about the market online you get accused of shilling or being a realtor.
This is something that hasn't changed since I first started looking into buying in 2008.
Online = Bears.
Real world = Bulls.

A lot of the sky is falling posts are very reminiscent of 2008/9.

I started condo shopping then around March, and kept on getting outbid on units until September 2009 when I purchased a unit that wasn't listed, after losing out on another in the same building.

The market turned on a dime back then too and the online communities refused to believe it - calling it a dead cat bounce, temporary blip, etc, etc.

I'm keeping a close eye on it this time around to see if history repeats it self - and I have a vested interest.
I sold an investment property in BC last year and would like to buy a rental in Vancouver.

Ah, I see. I'd say the differences between now and 2009 are: 1) emergency low interest rates have lost their power over an overextended market 2) there's no flood of Mainland Chinese money coming to bail out aging Boomers who didn't save for their retirement in the Okanagan.

For the record, I'm not a realtor, just someone who delights in the schadenfreude of real estate speculators getting burned.

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

I have kept track of the market, fairly consistently since 2009 when I bought my first unit.
I feel like its a necessary disclosure otherwise if you have anything positive to say about the market online you get accused of shilling or being a realtor.
This is something that hasn't changed since I first started looking into buying in 2008.
Online = Bears.
Real world = Bulls.

A lot of the sky is falling posts are very reminiscent of 2008/9.

I started condo shopping then around March, and kept on getting outbid on units until September 2009 when I purchased a unit that wasn't listed, after losing out on another in the same building.

The market turned on a dime back then too and the online communities refused to believe it - calling it a dead cat bounce, temporary blip, etc, etc.

I'm keeping a close eye on it this time around to see if history repeats it self - and I have a vested interest.
I sold an investment property in BC last year and would like to buy a rental in Vancouver.

Personally I’d avoid cities housing activists are popular since I feel like more rental regulations coming out will kill it for rental owners and you never know what’s going to happen. Look at what’s happening in New West as an example. Perhaps renting in Richmond is best, a council member brought up an empty homes tax a few weeks ago and got shot down fast. With return on investment being equal it’s good to buy in the municipality that supports you? Btw those 4 councilors who voted yes are not getting re-elected

https://www.vancourier.com/richmond-...tax-1.23830715

[misher]

This was a great summary of Metro Vans Development. It seems clear that housing and development industries are here to stay.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/metr...-skytrain-2019

[rofina]

Originally Posted by misher

Personally I’d avoid cities housing activists are popular since I feel like more rental regulations coming out will kill it for rental owners and you never know what’s going to happen. Look at what’s happening in New West as an example. Perhaps renting in Richmond is best, a council member brought up an empty homes tax a few weeks ago and got shot down fast. With return on investment being equal it’s good to buy in the municipality that supports you? Btw those 4 councilors who voted yes are not getting re-elected

https://www.vancourier.com/richmond-...tax-1.23830715

That's fair. I should have said Metro Van. Not married to Vancouver proper.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Ah, I see. I'd say the differences between now and 2009 are: 1) emergency low interest rates have lost their power over an overextended market 2) there's no flood of Mainland Chinese money coming to bail out aging Boomers who didn't save for their retirement in the Okanagan.

For the record, I'm not a realtor, just someone who delights in the schadenfreude of real estate speculators getting burned.

Agree on the rates, in general, few caveats.

They did not get raised today, and I do think there is room for reduction. I don't think it will have as drastic of an impact as it did 10 years ago.

For the second point - these capital flows can and likely will make an appearance again. The prices have fallen alot in the high end - but there are buyers low balling on some still absurdly expensive properties. While I realise a 9 million dollar home selling for 5 million is a huge reduction, that's still a massive vote of confidence from someone willing to step in and spend 5 million. This is happening quite frequently still.

Lastly, and most similar to a decade ago, this downturn is caused by external forces, this time its policy driven. Last go round a global recession and freezing of credit markets did it. The demand did not change then and it has not changed now.

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

Agree on the rates, in general, few caveats.

They did not get raised today, and I do think there is room for reduction. I don't think it will have as drastic of an impact as it did 10 years ago.

For the second point - these capital flows can and likely will make an appearance again. The prices have fallen alot in the high end - but there are buyers low balling on some still absurdly expensive properties. While I realise a 9 million dollar home selling for 5 million is a huge reduction, that's still a massive vote of confidence from someone willing to step in and spend 5 million. This is happening quite frequently still.

Lastly, and most similar to a decade ago, this downturn is caused by external forces, this time its policy driven. Last go round a global recession and freezing of credit markets did it. The demand did not change then and it has not changed now.

Every long term prediction is that Vancouver's real estate will go strong. This is likely why the big developers are still starting projects because they know when there done 5-10 years down the road the demand will be there. Rather than talk about "if" we're all taking about "when". And that more than anything else is going to drive people to buy because there is a lot of confidence that the market will go up despite every tax and regulation that comes in. Foreign money is a factor, but domestic demand is the main factor in our market and locals like making money and like owning a home.

PS: I think we can all ignore the doomsayers that are talking about a 50% reduction. Its not impossible but the economic crisis that would have to occur to cause it means we'll all have other things on our minds.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

Agree on the rates, in general, few caveats.

They did not get raised today, and I do think there is room for reduction. I don't think it will have as drastic of an impact as it did 10 years ago.

For the second point - these capital flows can and likely will make an appearance again. The prices have fallen alot in the high end - but there are buyers low balling on some still absurdly expensive properties. While I realise a 9 million dollar home selling for 5 million is a huge reduction, that's still a massive vote of confidence from someone willing to step in and spend 5 million. This is happening quite frequently still.

Lastly, and most similar to a decade ago, this downturn is caused by external forces, this time its policy driven. Last go round a global recession and freezing of credit markets did it. The demand did not change then and it has not changed now.

Not just the high-end. I drove by a new townhouse complex in Richmond with a litter of For Sale signs out front. Three months ago it was the same. No wonder some Councillors like Alexa Loo are so scared of an empty homes tax. And for an educational primer for some here who need it (not you), she was easily the least popular of those elected there:

Carol DAY 20871 ELECTED
Harold STEVES 19136 ELECTED
Chak AU 18026 ELECTED
Bill McNULTY 17242 ELECTED
Kelly GREENE 16464 ELECTED
Linda McPHAIL 15521 ELECTED
Michael WOLFE 13627 ELECTED
Alexa LOO 13212 ELECTED

[misher]

Carol DAY 20871 ELECTED-Approved
Harold STEVES 19136 ELECTED-Approved
Chak AU 18026 ELECTED-Against
Bill McNULTY 17242 ELECTED-Against
Kelly GREENE 16464 ELECTED-Motioned
Linda McPHAIL 15521 ELECTED-Against
Michael WOLFE 13627 ELECTED-Approved
Alexa LOO 13212 ELECTED-Against

So 4-4 and I assume Brodie voted against. 50% of the population of Richmond knows who to vote against next time around

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Not just the high-end. I drove by a new townhouse complex in Richmond with a litter of For Sale signs out front. Three months ago it was the same.

REBGV data shows there were 166 townhomes for sale in Richmond in April, 27 more than a year earlier. Sales of townhomes fell to 42 in April, down from 79 in April 2018. Benchmark price for a Richmond townhome was $780,200, down 7% from a year earlier. (Richmond detached homes were down 12.3% year-on-year, and apartments were down 6.5%).

[whatnext]

Nice to see increased data collection real estate sales paying off for Canadians:

VANCOUVER—After going after tax evaders in the overheated real-estate markets of British Columbia and Ontario, Canada Revenue Agency audits have added more than $1 billion to government coffers...

...The majority of audited files — 34,314—were from Ontario, with 64 per cent of the $604.5 million coming from audits on GST/HST rebates on the sale of new homes or residential rental properties.

In B.C., after auditing 7,400 files, 63 per cent of $422.6 million in recovered money came from those who under-reported income tax.

The CRA audits collected $169 million in 2015-2016 and $161 million in 2016-2017, but that jumped to $263 million in 2017-2018 and $434 million in 2018-2019...

Richard Kurland, an immigration lawyer based in Vancouver, said the 65 per cent increase in collections in the past year is a direct result of improved data collection on B.C. real estate transactions, which the province now shares with CRA.

The two provinces are home to the most heated real estate markets in Canada, Vancouver and Toronto. The federal tax authority has been taking a closer look at real estate in the two provinces since 2015, and has identified the sector as high risk for tax evasion.

The CRA uses a number of risk-assessment tools to flag potential tax cheats, but one of the biggest red flags comes from people whose reported income does not match their lifestyle, particularly if they have low income and a high-end home....
https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/20...ax-cheats.html

[misher]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Nice to see increased data collection real estate sales paying off for Canadians:

VANCOUVER—After going after tax evaders in the overheated real-estate markets of British Columbia and Ontario, Canada Revenue Agency audits have added more than $1 billion to government coffers...

...The majority of audited files — 34,314—were from Ontario, with 64 per cent of the $604.5 million coming from audits on GST/HST rebates on the sale of new homes or residential rental properties.

In B.C., after auditing 7,400 files, 63 per cent of $422.6 million in recovered money came from those who under-reported income tax.

The CRA audits collected $169 million in 2015-2016 and $161 million in 2016-2017, but that jumped to $263 million in 2017-2018 and $434 million in 2018-2019...

Richard Kurland, an immigration lawyer based in Vancouver, said the 65 per cent increase in collections in the past year is a direct result of improved data collection on B.C. real estate transactions, which the province now shares with CRA.

The two provinces are home to the most heated real estate markets in Canada, Vancouver and Toronto. The federal tax authority has been taking a closer look at real estate in the two provinces since 2015, and has identified the sector as high risk for tax evasion.

The CRA uses a number of risk-assessment tools to flag potential tax cheats, but one of the biggest red flags comes from people whose reported income does not match their lifestyle, particularly if they have low income and a high-end home....
https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/20...ax-cheats.html

Nice to see a jump in this. Also it started under the Liberals too which is always nice.

[Changing City]

May REBGV sales data tweeted by Steve Saretsky.

"Greater Vancouver home sales across all property types hit a 19 year low for the month of May."

"When you break it down by property type condos definitely had a better month, albeit still quite weak. Condo sales fell 11% year-over-year, lowest total since May 2013."

"It looks like Detached house sales have bottomed. Sales moved sideways, stuck at weakest levels on record with data going back to 1992. This obviously keeps downwards pressure on prices."

[misher]

Originally Posted by Changing City

May REBGV sales data tweeted by Steve Saretsky.

"Greater Vancouver home sales across all property types hit a 19 year low for the month of May."

"When you break it down by property type condos definitely had a better month, albeit still quite weak. Condo sales fell 11% year-over-year, lowest total since May 2013."

"It looks like Detached house sales have bottomed. Sales moved sideways, stuck at weakest levels on record with data going back to 1992. This obviously keeps downwards pressure on prices."

Sales have been going down quickly. Seems like they’ve now stopped which is a sign a mild recovery may be in the works.