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  #261  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2024, 11:08 PM
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Originally Posted by craigs View Post
Why limit the discussion only to the Midwest?
This thread is open for discussion about cities anywhere.

I was only interested in Midwest cities because it's my belief that the slow growth aspect of most Midwest metros makes the development of a Clayton-like place especially parasitic to its downtown, that's all.
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  #262  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 3:33 PM
Emprise du Lion Emprise du Lion is offline
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Originally Posted by LAsam View Post
That's an interesting point and could definitely speak to why the value is so diminished. It's odd though that AT&T would need the same amount of parking for a downsized office workforce. I'd think they could work out an arrangement to lease some presumptively excess parking back to whomever takes over the old AT&T tower.
They honestly don't need the amount of parking that they have. They have a parking garage comparable to what you see sitting next to a stadium. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of the previous redevelopment plans fell through because they weren't willing to come to an agreement with the developers about lot sharing.

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Originally Posted by edale View Post
This is something I've posited for a while about Downtown St. Louis. It's increasingly becoming less central in the region, as the money and population continues to drift west. If East St. Louis and the IL side generally was healthier and wealthier, DTSL would no doubt also be healthier. I've seen this first hand with Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky. There is a significant amount of wealth, employment, and regional points of interest (obviously including the intl airport) in Northern Kentucky, and that has helped to keep Downtown Cincinnati and inner core neighborhoods relevant, even as sprawl continues its northern march to Dayton.
I am honestly not the most objective person regarding this since I am originally from the Metro East, but the area is still relatively stable. The decline in overall population hasn't been massive, and it might be even less since the Census Bureau has admitted that they badly undercounted Illinois overall. They didn't bother to update any of their official numbers though after admitting that Illinois likely surpassed 13 million residents in 2020.

That aside, the Metro East does have wealthy communities, and new subdivisions keep springing up. In terms of employers, Scott Air Force Base remains a huge draw. The area also has SIUE being a big draw in terms of local regional public universities.

As for ESTL, I honestly have the opposite opinion of you. I think there might be more push to redevelop ESTL and the surrounding inner ring communities if St. Louis itself was doing better. They don't have the tax base to do it on their own, and they all sit in flood plains. You have to get to the second ring communities on tops of the hills and bluffs to exit said flood plains, and those are the communities that seem to be seeing renewed interest due to their ease of access to STL and older homes.

For years the narrative has been that Illinois is more expensive than Missouri due to its real property taxes, but those are all city specific. It's starting to become realized that Illinois can be cheaper or on par with Missouri depending on where you move, what type of car you drive, etc. For being Republican controlled, Missouri will hit you hard with taxes. It's the worst of both worlds, honestly.

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South Jersey has a ton of wealth and lots of healthy communities. The IL side of the STL metro is very spread out without much of a center, and as bad as Camden might be, it's 100 times better than East St. Louis, which is probably tied only with Gary, IN for decimation. Philly also never lost in-town wealth like St. Louis did. There's no Rittenhouse Square in St. Louis.
I'd honestly say that ESTL is worse than Gary. There's just honestly not much left of its urban glory heyday. The most intact areas are further away from downtown ESTL, and they're predominated by 1940s and 50s ranch style homes. You are also correct that the Metro East doesn't have a real center of gravity anymore. It all just operates rather independently. You still have a ton of people commuting into St. Louis city and county for work though, even in the rural communities. This is honestly why St. Louis' MSA reaches so far into Illinois farm country.

As for St. Louis itself, I think you are selling the city short. The days of wealth not being in the city anymore are long gone. The Central West End has a ton of money, but also a ton of broke students in studios. Compton Heights, Lafayette Square, city portions of Demun and Wydown-Skinker are all quite monied as well.
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  #263  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 4:45 PM
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Percentage of households earning $200k or more, 2022 ACS, core cities:
--Boston: 19.6%
--Atlanta: 17.0%
--Minneapolis: 12.5%
--St. Louis: 6.3%
--Cleveland: 3.1%
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  #264  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 5:06 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Percentage of households earning $200k or more, 2022 ACS, core cities:
--Boston: 19.6%
--Atlanta: 17.0%
--Minneapolis: 12.5%
--St. Louis: 6.3%
--Cleveland: 3.1%
Atlanta is surprising. I wouldn't have guessed that it is nearly the same as Boston.
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  #265  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 5:10 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Atlanta is surprising. I wouldn't have guessed that it is nearly the same as Boston.
Buckhead is a pretty big neighborhood.
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  #266  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 5:10 PM
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Atlanta's wealthiest areas are basically all in the city proper. That's pretty rare, especially for a city with not particularly large physical size.
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  #267  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 5:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
That's pretty rare, especially for a city with not particularly large physical size.
Atlanta isn't huge in land area, but it is 2 - 2.5x bigger than the other four cities on the list, so it's not too surprising to me that it takes in more of its upper middle class suburbia within city limits than the others.
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  #268  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 9:47 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Buckhead is a pretty big neighborhood.
It's not just Buckhead. It's Annesley Park, Midtown, Virgina Highland, Brookhaven, Morningside, Inman Park, Grant Park.

Pretty much everything north of 78 is totally gentrified. I'd say 50% of the area between 20 and 78 is gentrified. Nearly the entire city proper is on an upward trajectory with exception of maybe the quadrants south and west of downtown.
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  #269  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 10:25 PM
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A bit unrelated to the whole St. Louis convo but Placer.AI released their march 2024 recap
https://www.placer.ai/blog/placer-ai...rch-2024-recap




Don't know whats happening with Houston... but San Francisco, DC, and chicago are doing well
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  #270  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2024, 11:30 PM
LAsam LAsam is offline
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From my recent experience in NYC, it was a tale of two submarkets... midtown vs downtown. Midtown felt as lively as ever to me, and downtown felt like a ghost town.
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  #271  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2024, 2:06 AM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Atlanta is surprising. I wouldn't have guessed that it is nearly the same as Boston.
Atlanta is the defacto capital of the South.
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  #272  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2024, 2:36 PM
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Marc Holliday: 40M SF Of NYC Offices Could Be Converted If Housing Bill Passes

Holliday estimated that 25M SF to 40M SF of space will be converted under the proposed program and that the reduction in office supply will lead to higher absorption in the remaining office buildings around the city.

“Imagine dozens of buildings converting, being taken offline, tenants being relocated out,” he said.

The bill would incentivize conversions in Midtown, including at 750 Third Ave., where the firm plans to turn an 81% vacant office tower into 543 units of housing...
https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news...l-nears-123853
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  #273  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2024, 3:24 PM
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There's around 600 million square feet of office space in NYC. 25-40 million converted would certainly help with the housing crisis and get some of the least desirable office space off the market, but it would still be a pretty minor overall impact. Good news, though.

I don't think there will be many conversions in Midtown. Lower Manhattan, yeah, but Midtown won't have many buildings where it makes sense to convert. And same goes for virtually everything north of Chambers Street downtown. Office rents between Midtown and Lower Manhattan are higher than in Midtown, so those areas are least likely to convert.
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  #274  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2024, 3:41 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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If true, converting 25-40 msf out of 600 would have a fairly major impact on the overall market. I'm not looking up NYC stats, or what's considered equilibrium locally, but let's say it takes you from 15% vacancy to 10%...that's the difference between a sketchy market and a pretty healthy one.

It would also give some office-dominated areas a more mixed-use feel, keep more retail open in off-hours, etc.
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  #275  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2024, 3:53 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
It's not just Buckhead. It's Annesley Park, Midtown, Virgina Highland, Brookhaven, Morningside, Inman Park, Grant Park.

Pretty much everything north of 78 is totally gentrified. I'd say 50% of the area between 20 and 78 is gentrified. Nearly the entire city proper is on an upward trajectory with exception of maybe the quadrants south and west of downtown.
I wasn't implying that Buckhead was the only in-town wealthy and/or gentrified neighborhood. But it's very large (100,000 people, so roughly 20% of the city population), with most of its land area given up to conservative-leaning large-lot suburbia, which makes it quite different from what we typically consider when talking about urban wealth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LAsam View Post
From my recent experience in NYC, it was a tale of two submarkets... midtown vs downtown. Midtown felt as lively as ever to me, and downtown felt like a ghost town.
My impression is the NYC downtown RE market never fully recovered from September 11. Lots of residential conversions in the Financial District date from the years afterward.
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  #276  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2024, 3:58 PM
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Lower Manhattan has been in relative decline since the great rail terminals were built in Midtown. It's been a very long, steady transformation.

In the 1950's, Chase Manhattan bank had plans to move to Midtown. David Rockefeller basically forced the bank to build its new global HQ at 28 Liberty Street downtown.

https://www.cityrealty.com/nyc/marke...kyscraper/2962

One weird thing is that Lower Manhattan is now full of creative industries, largely due to Brooklyn-adjacent location. Midtown is now "Wall Street" and Downtown is something else. Brownstone Brooklyn crowd while Midtown is more suburban & uptown.
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