City Murder Rates

[Blitz]

Detroit is down 27% from last year's pace. The absolute number wasn't provided but this stat is from the mayor's state of the city address this week.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

2019 = 97 (on April 17th)
2024 = 81 (on April 17th)

Decrease = 16.5%

At current pace, Philly will end up with +/- 325 Homicides this year compared to 410 in 2023 and 514 in 2022 and 562 in 2021.

[Velvet_Highground]

Originally Posted by Blitz

Detroit is down 27% from last year's pace. The absolute number wasn't provided but this stat is from the mayor's state of the city address this week.

I can understand jitters about the upcoming draft though I would like numbers. Still with a large drop during the period last year that saw the only spike in a year (centered around rowdy crowds downtown) in a year that saw an 18% drop after new tactics and higher pay for more overtime were introduced I’m optimistic.

[Smuttynose1]

YTD Changes in Select Cities pretty universally positive --
Change % 2024 Murders YTD (2023 Murders YTD)

Atlanta: -3% 36 (37)

Boston: -86% 2 (14)

Chicago: -10% 142 (157)

Dallas: -28% 71 (99)

Kansas City: 17% 44 (53)

Minneapolis: No change 16 (16)

Milwaukee: -29% 30 (42)

New York: -18% 102 (125)

Philadelphia: -35% 87 (133)

Washington DC: -24% 51 (67)

[Crawford]

It's all fakenews. Cities have never been more dangerous.

Look at Boston. 2 murders so far. Mad Max on the Charles.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

YTD Changes in Select Cities pretty universally positive --
Change % 2024 Murders YTD (2023 Murders YTD)

Atlanta: -3% 36 (37)

Boston: -86% 2 (14)

Chicago: -10% 142 (157)

Dallas: -28% 71 (99)

Kansas City: 17% 44 (53)

Minneapolis: No change 16 (16)

Milwaukee: -29% 30 (42)

New York: -18% 102 (125)

Philadelphia: -35% 87 (133)

Washington DC: -24% 51 (67)

For some reason Houston is never included, so:

Houston: -24.69% 61 (81) As of: Mar 31. 2024 https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboa...er-comparison/

[homebucket]

San Francisco
2023 YTD: 13
2024 YTD: 9
Change: -31%

And since jtown,man is gonna ask:

San Francisco
2019 YTD: 10
2024 YTD: 9
Change: -10%

[lextown]

Louisville KY is at 50.

Lexington KY is at 5.

[3rd&Brown]

As of end of April.

Philadelphia

2024: 88 (-34%)
2023: 134
2022: 156
2021: 171
2020: 125
2019: 104
2018: 91
2017: 106
2016: 89

Lowest tally of murders 1/3 of the way through the year since 2016. In that year, the city tallied a total of 277 homicides.

Hopefully we'll stay on that trajectory. I know this is a national trend, but it feels like we're outperforming most other places. Our new police commissioner is A+++.

[Steely Dan]

^ damn, that's impressive. A nearly 50% drop from the 2021 shitshow, wow!

Go Philly!



Chicago's tally isn't dropping nearly that precipitously, but still solidly trending in the good direction, and now below 2019 YTD! And -27% from the 2021 shitshow.


YTD homicides in Chicago:

2024: 143 (-16%)
2023: 170
2022: 180
2021: 195
2020: 154
2019: 149
2018: 157

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

[Gresto]

Good to see the homicide numbers in most American cities consistently coming down.

Toronto had a relatively busy March and April. Total homicides year-to-date at 25.

[Crawford]

Boston is unreal. They recently had a murder, so they're up to the mindblowing number of 3! They also have an ultra-lefty SJW type as mayor.

Granted, I don't think they're gonna end up with 6-7 murders this year. There will be some summer carnage. A lot of the colder cities have big summer spikes. But the Boston numbers demolish the tough law-and-order narrative. They might have the most liberal big city mayor in America.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ damn, that's impressive. A nearly 50% drop from the 2021 shitshow, wow!

Go Philly!



Chicago's tally isn't dropping quite that precipitously, but still solidly trending in the good direction, and now below 2019 YTD! And -27% from the 2021 shitshow.


YTD homicides in Chicago:

2024: 143 (-16%)
2023: 170
2022: 180
2021: 195
2020: 154
2019: 149
2018: 157

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

I few like the mild Winter might have skewed the Chicago trend line.

It’s a bit weird to spike up 30% in March and fall back to -30% in April.

Jan 2024: 35 (-20%)
Feb 2024: 32 (-30%)
Mar 2024: 50 (+32%)
Apr 2024: 39 (-32%)

[homebucket]

SF just hit double digits, unfortunately.

San Francisco
2023 YTD: 16
2024 YTD: 10
Change: -37.5%

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Boston is unreal. They recently had a murder, so they're up to the mindblowing number of 3! They also have an ultra-lefty SJW type as mayor.

Granted, I don't think they're gonna end up with 6-7 murders this year. There will be some summer carnage. A lot of the colder cities have big summer spikes. But the Boston numbers demolish the tough law-and-order narrative. They might have the most liberal big city mayor in America.

It's also on an island surrounded by a sea of states with tough gun laws. And of course, very educated and affluent overall.

Still, extraordinary numbers for a city of 650K in the US.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

It's also on an island surrounded by a sea of states with tough gun laws. And of course, very educated and affluent overall.

Still, extraordinary numbers for a city of 650K in the US.

Boston isn't an island. It was almost an island in colonial times, but backfill has made it (mostly) a peninsula.

Boston is pretty wealthy and affluent as U.S. cities go, but there's still a ton of poverty in Roxbury, Dorchester, and Mattapan. Indeed, there's relatively little sign of these areas gentrifying, with concentrated poverty still much more of an urban than a suburban thing in that area (though there are poorer areas outside the city, like Chelsea and Lynn).

[Crawford]

Right, Boston is fairly affluent, and there are no real North Philly or South Side of Chicago-type concentrations, but there's still pretty considerable poverty and racial isolation. Roxbury, Mattapan, and Dorchester aren't great areas and gentrification is pretty limited. Not a SF or DC level of gentrification. Also, Boston, unlike SF and DC has WWC areas in city proper still.

Boston might just be lucky, but I'd guess gun control, immigration, heavy social/education spending help. It's a bit of a third rail discussion, but the black population is heavily foreign-born and immigrant black communities don't have the same frequency of violent criminality. Boston black population is like that of NYC and Miami.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Boston is unreal. They recently had a murder, so they're up to the mindblowing number of 3! They also have an ultra-lefty SJW type as mayor.

Granted, I don't think they're gonna end up with 6-7 murders this year. There will be some summer carnage. A lot of the colder cities have big summer spikes. But the Boston numbers demolish the tough law-and-order narrative. They might have the most liberal big city mayor in America.

Boston has small city limits and is almost entirely gentrified. It's basically the same situation as San Francisco, which also has had very low homicide rates for quite a while. I'm guessing Boston has other issues, like SF has with property crimes, but it's been a pretty safe city for a long time.

If you're claiming that DC is almost entirely gentrified, I don't know how you wouldn't claim the same for Boston. DC's entire SE quadrant, and a good portion of NE is still very rough and not gentrified. Even San Francisco has some areas that are still rough and not heavily gentrified. The Hunter's Point/Bayview area is still home to a fair amount of public housing and has issues with gangs and crime, and of course there's the Tenderloin which is Skid Row North and rife with crime, too. Still, overall, Boston and SF are about the safest big cities in America by a long shot.

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Good to see the homicide numbers in most American cities consistently coming down.

Toronto had a relatively busy March and April. Total homicides year-to-date at 25.

Sounds like a bad year so far, right? What about the other cities?

[tech12]

Originally Posted by edale

Still, overall, Boston and SF are about the safest big cities in America by a long shot.

Except...they're not. Even if you ignore assault, robbery, and rape rates, and are only referring to the murder rate, they still aren't the safest large cities in America, let alone by "a long shot". There are dozens of large cities in the US with lower murder rates than both.

These stats are from 2019, but things haven't changed that much:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_crime_rate

Take a look at where Boston and SF are on the list.