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  #22861  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:02 PM
Migs Migs is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Are you saying masks don't work?
Nope, the results say that.

https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/sta...091889152?s=21

Now about that Texas Rangers game 11 days ago, was there a spike in cases? Odd that the media is now completely ignoring it 11 days later, we were promised carnage.
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  #22862  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:15 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
Maybe that’s why I’m not as concerned this time around compared to the 2nd wave. ._.
I would be. We're not vaccinating close to quick enough to prevent a massive surge on our hospitals.
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  #22863  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:18 PM
casper casper is offline
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Originally Posted by Migs View Post
Nope, the results say that.

https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/sta...091889152?s=21

Now about that Texas Rangers game 11 days ago, was there a spike in cases? Odd that the media is now completely ignoring it 11 days later, we were promised carnage.
You do realize in the Free State of Texas the Globe Field Stadium Manage is free to see entrance requirements. They require masks to be used at all times unless someone is eating or drinking. That along with a number of other COVID restrictions in place at the stadium.

The general public is free to place themselves at risk by buying a ticket to that game. However they are not free to opt out of wearing a mask.
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  #22864  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I would be. We're not vaccinating close to quick enough to prevent a massive surge on our hospitals.
Has anyone done the math on this? It has not appeared in the Ontario updates I've seen, but I've only seen a few of them.

Back-of-the-envelope calculations that assume some median effectiveness on preventing hospitalizations (very good with the vaccines), a historical view of vaccination rates with a fine-grained sense of who was vaccinated, and clarity around how/when people are ending up in the hospital and how long they are staying. It does not have to be a prediction and the measurement-based stuff should be kept distinct from the speculative stuff.

Part of what makes this a bit more complicated is that you need to reconcile the "stock" of the number in hospital with the "flow" of admissions. Often we don't get any admissions data in Canada, just the total. There is a difference between 0 admitted and 30 admitted + 30 released.

There is a lot of superficial "modeling" which amounts to picking R values (maybe garbage-in-garbage-out case data or incomplete tracing data; little transparency there) and plotting curves. The equivalent of Statistics Canada plotting a bunch of future population curves for Canada based on growth of -1% a year, +1%, +3%, etc. Those are not predictions.
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  #22865  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:32 PM
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Three new cases. All Eastern Health region of the province, all travel-related within Canada, all obeyed rules and are still isolating.
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  #22866  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:34 PM
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It would also be interesting to look at recent case totals versus hospitalizations and see how much that ratio is changing over time (although again this may not be very good data to begin with). We may see a decoupling of cases and hospitalizations over time with vaccination, much like the decoupling we have already seen between cases and deaths. It makes sense that the hospitalization decoupling would take longer because the risk gradient is not as steep as deaths.

The area under the curve matters. If you have an increase in cases when you already had a bunch of people in the hospital from old cases the strain on capacity will be higher. It's unclear how much of the added capacity demands in say BC right now are from a greater volume of recent infection versus more lingering hospitalizations compared to the November/December peak which was preceded by low hospitalizations and cases.

The "wave" narrative obscures this somewhat. We are supposedly on wave 3 now but the minimum between wave 2 and wave 3 was higher than the old case peak of wave 1 and certainly a lot of the non-wave-periods between 1 and 2. Most of Canada has had ongoing community transmission for a year now. The case data in many different countries resembles random walks and there is no clear definition of what is or isn't a wave. Brazil could be on wave 1, 2, 5, 13.
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  #22867  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:35 PM
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
You do realize in the Free State of Texas the Globe Field Stadium Manage is free to see entrance requirements. They require masks to be used at all times unless someone is eating or drinking. That along with a number of other COVID restrictions in place at the stadium.

The general public is free to place themselves at risk by buying a ticket to that game. However they are not free to opt out of wearing a mask.
Not sure if you watched that game or not but it was a small fraction of people in that stadium that wore masks. That was one of the reasons we were promised carnage, now nobody wants to talk about it lol.
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  #22868  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 6:53 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by Migs View Post
Not sure if you watched that game or not but it was a small fraction of people in that stadium that wore masks. That was one of the reasons we were promised carnage, now nobody wants to talk about it lol.
Who on this thread promised carnage?
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  #22869  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Migs View Post
Nope, the results say that.

https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/sta...091889152?s=21

Now about that Texas Rangers game 11 days ago, was there a spike in cases? Odd that the media is now completely ignoring it 11 days later, we were promised carnage.
Let's make things very simple, so that even a child would understand.


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Science

Instead of some random guy on twitter, lets see what the science in Science has to say on the matter
Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Quote:
Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 µm) and aerosols (≤5 µm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1—3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals.
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  #22870  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:18 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Who on this thread promised carnage?
The entire anti-mask argument seems to revolve around a bunch of strawman arguments. I'm starting to wonder if math illiteracy (particularly with probability and statistics) is driving this. It all seems to be, "I know people who went out one night and didn't get sick. So I should be able to go out without a mask."

And the other corollary is that they should be exempt from rules applied by property owners. Which is also quite the snowflake argument.
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  #22871  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
The entire anti-mask argument seems to revolve around a bunch of strawman arguments. I'm starting to wonder if math illiteracy (particularly with probability and statistics) is driving this.
The majority of people simply don't understand math and science. The average Joe is worried about their personal bubble (relationships, their career, their special interests, parties/social events, vacations, etc). These people finished high school at best, didn't really pay attention to anything. Most people form opinions based on emotion, not facts. Many simply don't have the time or ability to sift through the data and come to a logical conclusion. The internet adds fuel to the fire with these conspiracy videos/articles designed to hook and sink these same people into believing they are on the forefront of some big undiscovered plot.
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  #22872  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:58 PM
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  #22873  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:58 PM
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Active cases have been declining for about 2 weeks in Regina now. A combination of high vaccination and lockdown has pushed our R value firmly under 1.

The Regina health region is just under 25% vaccinated. Strong chance case count just straight continues to decline until COVID is effectively gone.
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  #22874  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 7:59 PM
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On the heels of the news that Moderna vaccine delays (from our suppliers in Europe), let's all take a moment to thank our American neighbours who are now sitting on a growing pile of unused doses:

Unused Vaccines Are Piling Up Across U.S. as Some Regions Resist
Even in states where inoculation campaigns have been mostly successful, vaccine gaps remain
By Anna Edney and Drew Armstrong
April 15, 2021

Many U.S. states and cities have a growing surplus of Covid-19 vaccines, a sign that in some places demand is slowing before a large percentage of the population has been inoculated, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News.

The data indicate as many as one in three doses are unused in some states. Appointments for shots often go untaken, with few people signing up...

....Meanwhile, doses pile up. West Virginia — lauded for its rollout of shots early on — has gone from using all but a tiny percentage of its supply in mid-February to 26% of doses unused, a daily average of 352,000 unused doses over the last week. Some states have never gotten their vaccination strategy in gear. Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi represent a band of southern states that have struggled to work through their supplies....


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06
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  #22875  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:04 PM
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Anita Anand announced another 4 million Pfizer doses are now due to come in May. This is about double the amount previously scheduled.
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  #22876  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:06 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
On the heels of the news that Moderna vaccine delays (from our suppliers in Europe), let's all take a moment to thank our American neighbours who are now sitting on a growing pile of unused doses:

Unused Vaccines Are Piling Up Across U.S. as Some Regions Resist
Even in states where inoculation campaigns have been mostly successful, vaccine gaps remain
By Anna Edney and Drew Armstrong
April 15, 2021

Many U.S. states and cities have a growing surplus of Covid-19 vaccines, a sign that in some places demand is slowing before a large percentage of the population has been inoculated, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News.

The data indicate as many as one in three doses are unused in some states. Appointments for shots often go untaken, with few people signing up...

....Meanwhile, doses pile up. West Virginia — lauded for its rollout of shots early on — has gone from using all but a tiny percentage of its supply in mid-February to 26% of doses unused, a daily average of 352,000 unused doses over the last week. Some states have never gotten their vaccination strategy in gear. Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi represent a band of southern states that have struggled to work through their supplies....


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=x4rjnz06
I'm glad you're coming around to seeing the badness of nationalist economics.
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  #22877  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:22 PM
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Originally Posted by khabibulin View Post
My child just returned to Canada from Brazil (layover in Panama City) where was staying for the last 6 months. When getting off the full plane, half the passengers were unaware of the government hotel quarantine requirement. They were all forced to respect it. Anyway, end of day 1 and my child received a negative test result and is free to leave the hotel and carry out the rest of the 14 day quarantine period according to the quarantine plan they prepared.
Why on Earth would anyone have gone or allowed someone to go to Brazil during the pandemic? Their response has been catastrophically bad and now thanks to them Canada is getting hit with serious variants.

Trudeau should have acted much faster to seal our borders. His failure has lead to this:

B.C.’s swelling COVID-19 cases fuelled by variants, travel
JUSTINE HUNTER
VICTORIA
PUBLISHED APRIL 16, 2021

The P.1 variant of COVID-19 arrived in the resort town of Whistler in mid-February, brought by visitors from other provinces. The B.C. recreation destination, jammed with restaurants and bars, had been a pandemic hot spot since the Christmas holidays and the new, more transmissible variant quickly took over.

From there, it spread across the province as guests in Whistler returned to their homes on Vancouver Island and elsewhere.

The path of P.1, now a major cause of new COVID-19 cases
UPDATED APR 15, 2021 11:35PM EDT - COVID-19′s rapid spread has put public-health agencies under pressure to save lives. Check back for daily updates on how the numbers are trending across the country and around the world - PUBLISHED MAR 18, 2020 12:36PM EDT
in the province, shows how travel – international, interprovincial and intraprovincial – swiftly carried the more contagious variant around the province, even as British Columbians were urged to avoid non-essential travel.

First detected in Brazil in January, the P.1 variant has been rapidly spreading in B.C. where rising COVID-19 caseloads have forced hospitals to cancel surgeries and tap into “surge capacity” beds. The variant of concern can spread more rapidly, can cause a more severe case of COVID-19 and may resist current treatments and vaccines.

In an interview, Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s Public Health Officer, said the first P.1 cluster identified in B.C. was in the Vancouver Coastal Health region and was introduced from somebody who had travelled internationally....


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...riants-travel/
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  #22878  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:25 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Why on Earth would anyone have gone or allowed someone to go to Brazil during the pandemic? Their response has been catastrophically bad and now thanks to them Canada is getting hit with serious variants.

Trudeau should have acted much faster to seal our borders. His failure has lead to this:

B.C.’s swelling COVID-19 cases fuelled by variants, travel
JUSTINE HUNTER
VICTORIA
PUBLISHED APRIL 16, 2021

The P.1 variant of COVID-19 arrived in the resort town of Whistler in mid-February, brought by visitors from other provinces. The B.C. recreation destination, jammed with restaurants and bars, had been a pandemic hot spot since the Christmas holidays and the new, more transmissible variant quickly took over.

From there, it spread across the province as guests in Whistler returned to their homes on Vancouver Island and elsewhere.

The path of P.1, now a major cause of new COVID-19 cases
UPDATED APR 15, 2021 11:35PM EDT - COVID-19′s rapid spread has put public-health agencies under pressure to save lives. Check back for daily updates on how the numbers are trending across the country and around the world - PUBLISHED MAR 18, 2020 12:36PM EDT
in the province, shows how travel – international, interprovincial and intraprovincial – swiftly carried the more contagious variant around the province, even as British Columbians were urged to avoid non-essential travel.

First detected in Brazil in January, the P.1 variant has been rapidly spreading in B.C. where rising COVID-19 caseloads have forced hospitals to cancel surgeries and tap into “surge capacity” beds. The variant of concern can spread more rapidly, can cause a more severe case of COVID-19 and may resist current treatments and vaccines.

In an interview, Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s Public Health Officer, said the first P.1 cluster identified in B.C. was in the Vancouver Coastal Health region and was introduced from somebody who had travelled internationally....


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...riants-travel/
I mean the border has been essentially closed (insanely high barriers of entry) for months now. How much more can be done, realistically? Canadian's have a charter right to enter, travelers have forced quarantine measures.
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  #22879  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
I mean the border has been essentially closed (insanely high barriers of entry) for months now. How much more can be done, realistically? Canadian's have a charter right to enter, travelers have forced quarantine measures.
Forced 14 day hotel quarantines. It makes little sense now, but would have prevented the virus becoming endemic if we had implemented it in spring 2020.
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  #22880  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 8:32 PM
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Forced 14 day hotel quarantines. It makes little sense now, but would have prevented the virus becoming endemic if we had implemented it in spring 2020.
The M.O. of the two levels of government has been to implement lax controls and then when things get out of hand vaguely blame individual bad actors without establishing that they broke clear rules or why the rules would have prevented the outcome. If BC did not want cases imported from out of province (which has been happening over and over for many months) they should have implemented a quarantine just like the Atlantic provinces. They chose not to. This is the result. We may or may not be happy with the trade-offs or outcomes (the outcome in BC being one of the better ones in the world for a comparable jurisdiction) but those are the facts.

The variants have been here for a long time and we don't have very good surveys of the population so I don't understand the assumption that we have perfect knowledge of what variants came here and when and who is infected. Positivity in BC has been over 5% for 5 months now and in the updates they point out that they don't know the origin of a large fraction of new cases.

Last edited by someone123; Apr 16, 2021 at 8:51 PM.
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