DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Unsustainable growth of capital costs is a separate problem, with separate causes and separate solutions, from post-covid operating shortages among the largest agencies. Although of course they are both problems for transit.

The operating problem is a "throw money at it for a couple of years and adjust your service to balance peak and off-peak" problem; it's easy but expensive. The capital problem is a "our processes are leading to bad outcomes and need to be rethought" problem; it's cheap but hard to figure out, much less accomplish.

Part of the capital problem has its root in the same zoning problem that causes housing unaffordability: By locking away residentially zoned land as untouchable, we are putting too many demands on our limited supply of mixed-use corridors, leading to skyrocketing costs to do anything inside them. Especially the most prime ones, like the central corridor of Austin. We can't afford to put good transit in the places we need it, so we either do what Austin is doing now (scaling back over and over) or do what Austin did previously (build a commuter rail line along cheap right-of-way that's so useless they're now trying to start over with an entirely different system).

But that's only part of the problem. Parts of it are also how we do planning, engineering, contracting, labor, liability, and scope-creep. It's not sustainable and is eventually going to be the downfall of our current method of NEPA.

The government construction world is much like the military industrial complex. Government has generally created ax extremely limited "class" of contractors who have all the right qualifications which weeds out 95% of competition. Should government decide to drop some or all of the laundry lists of qualifications, costs could come down dramatically. It would also help if the government, in general, stopped spending so much darn money. In Colorado, we've been particularly good at government spending during down times which seemingly disappears during good times (you know to balance out inflation). I think it's a primary reason Denver in particular has had such an even/up economy for so long, including government spending to pull us out of the 80's oil catastrophe and urban decay. Nowadays, it's just spend spend spend all the time and it has a profound impact on costs, both within a particular government project scope of work and the effects of that spending on the marketplace in general - availability of labor, material costs, etc etc.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mishko27

My only issue is the lack of retail on the street that will connect the light rail station with the mall and the "main street". Retail right by the station would make perfect sense, there needs to be a 7/11 and some fast-casual dining there, rather than ground level apartments with patios. If being walkable is the goal, it makes no sense to put private residences on what will arguably be the busiest pedestrian street.

I can think of nothing to ruin the value of an enormous investment better than a 7/11 facing public transit stop! No offense, but down there the action is on the mall side. I suspect they'll probably try to do something like what they have on the south side of the mall and eventually add a retail village as well, likely with more residential on top of it. Mall parking lots will all fairly soon be parking garages with residential and retail wrapping them for the municipalities that allow the zoning. For those that don't, they'll have dead malls for decades!

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I can think of nothing to ruin the value of an enormous investment better than a 7/11 facing public transit stop! No offense, but down there the action is on the mall side. I suspect they'll probably try to do something like what they have on the south side of the mall and eventually add a retail village as well, likely with more residential on top of it. Mall parking lots will all fairly soon be parking garages with residential and retail wrapping them for the municipalities that allow the zoning. For those that don't, they'll have dead malls for decades!

I am just very European and a train stop without a convenience store makes no sense to me... I mean, it should arguably not be a 7/11, that development is asking for a King Soopers Express (as in Tesco Express / Sainsbury's Local kinda store), but those retail formats don't really even exist here

But again, I can't imagine a Stockholm Metro stop without a 7/11 and Pressbyrån, or a Hong Kong MTR station without a Circle K or a 7/11... Those were always so convenient to me, not sure why they don't exist here.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by mishko27

I am just very European and a train stop without a convenience store makes no sense to me... I mean, it should arguably not be a 7/11, that development is asking for a King Soopers Express (as in Tesco Express / Sainsbury's Local kinda store), but those retail formats don't really even exist here

But again, I can't imagine a Stockholm Metro stop without a 7/11 and Pressbyrån, or a Hong Kong MTR station without a Circle K or a 7/11... Those were always so convenient to me, not sure why they don't exist here.

Because RTD's mindset is that the first and foremost best use of the land surrounding a transit station is a parking lot.


Seriously, RTD has a lousy track record of leasing out space for retail usage in it's facilities. Just look at the total lack of retail directly at Union Station, the University of Denver parking garage, Littleton Station, or Civic Center Station. I think the only retail spot left in the system might be at Boulder Station.

[adelaide52]

Originally Posted by laniroj

I can think of nothing to ruin the value of an enormous investment better than a 7/11 facing public transit stop! No offense, but down there the action is on the mall side. I suspect they'll probably try to do something like what they have on the south side of the mall and eventually add a retail village as well, likely with more residential on top of it. Mall parking lots will all fairly soon be parking garages with residential and retail wrapping them for the municipalities that allow the zoning. For those that don't, they'll have dead malls for decades!

Most of the traffic at the station will be at commuting hours from 6-8 am and 4-6 pm. No one will be shopping at a retail village at thoses time, except for maybe groceries on the way home. When I commuted on the train in a large city all I wanted to do when I got to my stop was get home as quickly as possible. I had no interest is shopping.

And there is no reason to have a 7-11 across the street. The retail should be right in the station. Every large city transit system I've ever been on has stands where people can get coffee, a charger, flowers, milk, etc., right in the station.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mishko27

I am just very European and a train stop without a convenience store makes no sense to me... I mean, it should arguably not be a 7/11, that development is asking for a King Soopers Express (as in Tesco Express / Sainsbury's Local kinda store), but those retail formats don't really even exist here

But again, I can't imagine a Stockholm Metro stop without a 7/11 and Pressbyrån, or a Hong Kong MTR station without a Circle K or a 7/11... Those were always so convenient to me, not sure why they don't exist here.

Fair enough. Lived in Europe for a time, it was fantastic. All that small scale retail is to be admired. It's prevalent in some east coast and old world midwest cities, but not really anywhere out west. My personal thought is it's for two reasons, the first being zoning isn't there to allow it and second being we just don't have the density (even at transit stations) to support that kind of convenience retail. Our transit stations are kind of like islands in this country, driven by zoning, and there's just not enough beds nearby to sustain them unlike in Europe where you have 3-6 stories of residential density seemingly everywhere and condensed in a much smaller area than what we offer in USA.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by adelaide52

Most of the traffic at the station will be at commuting hours from 6-8 am and 4-6 pm. No one will be shopping at a retail village at thoses time, except for maybe groceries on the way home. When I commuted on the train in a large city all I wanted to do when I got to my stop was get home as quickly as possible. I had no interest is shopping.

And there is no reason to have a 7-11 across the street. The retail should be right in the station. Every large city transit system I've ever been on has stands where people can get coffee, a charger, flowers, milk, etc., right in the station.

Haha, RTD is not going to let stands offer customer relevant conveniences! Wish they would, ain't gonna happen in today's RTD. Union Station offers this now that it's private, RTD checked that box and doesn't have to think about it ever again.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Fair enough. Lived in Europe for a time, it was fantastic. All that small scale retail is to be admired. It's prevalent in some east coast and old world midwest cities, but not really anywhere out west. My personal thought is it's for two reasons, the first being zoning isn't there to allow it and second being we just don't have the density (even at transit stations) to support that kind of convenience retail. Our transit stations are kind of like islands in this country, driven by zoning, and there's just not enough beds nearby to sustain them unlike in Europe where you have 3-6 stories of residential density seemingly everywhere and condensed in a much smaller area than what we offer in USA.

A couple years ago we had a place open in Arvada right across Grandview from the train station called "G-Line Grab and Go." I was so excited, but after a couple of stops in, I realized they were never going to make it... they couldn't keep milk in stock, and only sold eggs in packages of 24. They did weird stuff like selling cake mix, but with no frosting on the shelf to go with it. Prego pasta sauce, but no pasta. Eventually they started stocking more and more "novelty" items like handmade soy-wax candles and other "artisanal" boutiquey kind of items (though they also still sold lottery tickets). Finally this year, they shuttered their doors and now the storefront has been rebranded the "Gold Line Collective."

I understand that profit margins are very tiny for convenience stores and grocers, but it was really perplexing watching this "grab and go" struggle to stock even the most basic items one would expect from a convenience store. I guess the point of this anecdote is simply to reinforce your point - we REALLY struggle to support convenience retail here in Colorado, even in places where it might theoretically succeed.

Originally Posted by laniroj

Haha, RTD is not going to let stands offer customer relevant conveniences! Wish they would, ain't gonna happen in today's RTD. Union Station offers this now that it's private, RTD checked that box and doesn't have to think about it ever again.

The recent success of the Nuggets has also had me noticing all of the pop-up championship merchandise sales stands that are suddenly operating on the edge of gas stations all around town. These sales stands really stick out, because they are a reminder that we usually don't see anything like them here in Colorado. In other places, even out west (I'm thinking of LA in particular), you will see street food vendors along busy streets, people selling flowers along the side of highway off-ramps near cemeteries, vendors in city parks, etc. Colorado, unfortunately, seems to both laws and informal traditions that essentially shut these kinds of informal sales out of nearly every public space (except for the rare exception somewhere like the 16th Street mall - strictly permitted of course). If we don't even allow hot dog stands to operate in our city parks, why would we expect our transit stations to set aside spaces for small retailers either?

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by adelaide52

Most of the traffic at the station will be at commuting hours from 6-8 am and 4-6 pm. No one will be shopping at a retail village at thoses time, except for maybe groceries on the way home. When I commuted on the train in a large city all I wanted to do when I got to my stop was get home as quickly as possible. I had no interest is shopping.

And there is no reason to have a 7-11 across the street. The retail should be right in the station. Every large city transit system I've ever been on has stands where people can get coffee, a charger, flowers, milk, etc., right in the station.

It's the closest to the station any retail is available, that's why I suggested it. It's not dissimilar from the distance between platform and retail on Hong Kong's MTR, especially in the suburban stations on the former Ma On Shan line.

Many transit systems supplement their revenue by retail, and as all of these TODs get developed, the stations should too. RTD should be working on developing the parking lost - they can retain the spaces in the parking garages that are a part of the development, but add in station retail and housing (let's be real, there's no need for any office space for a while).

Ultimately, I have lived in Colorado for the past 13 years, I should know better than to bring my European thinking here It's just every now and then I see a project like the Park Meadows housing that makes so much sense and I apply my European thinking to it Can't help it I guess.

[mhays]

I'd be surprised if the retail is revenue-positive. It tends to rent at a loss in an apartment building. But wow would it be nice to be able to buy coffee or a chocolate chip muffin with a long ride ahead, or get a few staples on the way home or to work. That's a serious problem in my area too.

As for public projects and whether contractors can do them... FEDERAL work tends to have tough barriers, often to create set-asides for specific disadvantaged groups, or just onerous processes that also impact everything else that contractor does. And other processes that are easy but perhaps overly broad (literally checking a box saying you're not using Burmese child labor in the prequal system...seriously. Here's an added secret...some marketing person is checking those prequal boxes based on assumptions, not necessarily an exec.).

But state and local agencies are often much easier. They have a lot of rules, but probably the majority of the top 30 local GCs will propose for and win their fair shares.

[mishko27]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'd be surprised if the retail is revenue-positive. It tends to rent at a loss in an apartment building. But wow would it be nice to be able to buy coffee or a chocolate chip muffin with a long ride ahead, or get a few staples on the way home or to work. That's a serious problem in my area too.

As for public projects and whether contractors can do them... FEDERAL work tends to have tough barriers, often to create set-asides for specific disadvantaged groups, or just onerous processes that also impact everything else that contractor does. And other processes that are easy but perhaps overly broad (literally checking a box saying you're not using Burmese child labor in the prequal system...seriously. Here's an added secret...some marketing person is checking those prequal boxes based on assumptions, not necessarily an exec.).

But state and local agencies are often much easier. They have a lot of rules, but probably the majority of the top 30 local GCs will propose for and win their fair shares.

Yeah, not sure about what the returns are. What could work is a Rail+Property model. There is quite a bit of TOD and the RTD parking lots will need to be developed eventually. RTD could create a nice revenue stream from whatever profit sharing model they'd implement (share of overall unit sales, fixed lump sum per development, share of leasing income, there are many arrangements that could be made with developers).

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mishko27

..Ultimately, I have lived in Colorado for the past 13 years, I should know better than to bring my European thinking here It's just every now and then I see a project like the Park Meadows housing that makes so much sense and I apply my European thinking to it Can't help it I guess.

It's fun to dream! Retail works in all those other places mainly because there is ample serious nearby residential density (24 hr density). A Dutch village or or french suburb has 10x plus the residential density of Denver's densest TODs and that's only looking at unit density - not accounting for multi-generational living arrangements prevalent in Europe, Asia, South America which creates even more real density. Office density alone is not enough to sustain retail, rooftops HAVE to be a part of it. I don't know if there is a single area of Denver, or Colorado in general, that boasts sufficient 1/4 mile density to amply sustain diverse retail not dependent on vehicle trips. I'd love to see some tiny bodegas all around!

[TakeFive]

Happy to have your post

Originally Posted by adelaide52

Most of the traffic at the station will be at commuting hours from 6-8 am and 4-6 pm. No one will be shopping at a retail village at thoses time, except for maybe groceries on the way home. When I commuted on the train in a large city all I wanted to do when I got to my stop was get home as quickly as possible. I had no interest is shopping.

And there is no reason to have a 7-11 across the street. The retail should be right in the station. Every large city transit system I've ever been on has stands where people can get coffee, a charger, flowers, milk, etc., right in the station.

Do you live in the Denver metro area? Not necessary; just curious. I see this is only your 3rd post since joining in 2012; you're certainly welcome to post more often.

The subject station is along a suburban line. It was literally built as a part of the freeway expansion project and boarding is via an island setup. For several years it was an 'End of Line' station but the line has since been extended 3 miles. There would be less traffic now as a result.

Most of the parking for this station is across the freeway by bridge to the east. This station does have nice access for bus, rideshare etc drop-off and pickup making it more of a kiss-and-ride on the west side where the train stops.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

As for public projects and whether contractors can do them... FEDERAL work tends to have tough barriers, often to create set-asides for specific disadvantaged groups, or just onerous processes that also impact everything else that contractor does. And other processes that are easy but perhaps overly broad (literally checking a box saying you're not using Burmese child labor in the prequal system...seriously. Here's an added secret...some marketing person is checking those prequal boxes based on assumptions, not necessarily an exec.).

Burmese, eh? That's funny.

If there's a Red Wave (for real) in 2024 I would expect Republicans to overhaul the process chock full of stupid stuff. Whether some notion of 'social justice' or environmentalism or just plain NIMBY-ism the process is a messier than a traffic jam. Interestingly, the Biden agenda including all manner of Made-in-America ambitions also needs to have a cleaner pathway.

Is it any wonder why in many respects China is eating our lunch? They want to accomplish something they go and do it. Warren Buffet claims BYD has been has been the best investment he's ever made. China (for all their faults) is churning out renewable energy product at many times what the U.S. is doing.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mishko27

There is quite a bit of TOD and the RTD parking lots will need to be developed eventually. RTD could create a nice revenue stream from whatever profit sharing model they'd implement (share of overall unit sales, fixed lump sum per development, share of leasing income, there are many arrangements that could be made with developers).

All that land that RTD has for park-n-rides is not just something they thought was a good idea. As I understand it, it was required by the FTA as a part of the Grant process and they'd need permission to change it. They do have a number of kiss-and-ride stations. Obviously adding parking structures would not be a problem. Note: seems RTD may have already done this at 41st/Fox Station where they had acquired way more land than necessary because it was available and cheap at the time.

BTW, IIRC Sound Transit is including a healthy does of parking on their new suburban route stations.

We're all familiar with the close-in TOD that's making a huge impact with much more to go. But as you move into the suburbs there's a question of who would want to develop there? Affordable housing maybe?

[adelaide52]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Happy to have your post

Do you live in the Denver metro area? Not necessary; just curious. I see this is only your 3rd post since joining in 2012; you're certainly welcome to post more often.

The subject station is along a suburban line. It was literally built as a part of the freeway expansion project and boarding is via an island setup. For several years it was an 'End of Line' station but the line has since been extended 3 miles. There would be less traffic now as a result.

Most of the parking for this station is across the freeway by bridge to the east. This station does have nice access for bus, rideshare etc drop-off and pickup making it more of a kiss-and-ride on the west side where the train stops.

Thanks for the context – very helpful. I grew up in Denver (Harvey Park) but moved away many, many decades ago. Still have family in the metro but only get back there every few years. But I still like to keep up on developments in the area.

I am familiar with the location but have never been on the system or at that station. I get that a suburban station is different than one in a high density, urban location and it really comes down to foot traffic where successful retail is concerned.

So maybe what I suggested is not feasible for that station, but I do know that convenience/time is of the utmost importance for commuters. If someone has to walk across the street in the rain to get a cup of coffee that is a big deterrent. Or maybe they don’t think they have enough time because their train arrives in 4 minutes. When people are commuting, they will not go out of their way. That’s why in-station retail is the most ideal.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I would expect Republicans to overhaul the process chock full of stupid stuff.

Republicans don't reduce stupid stuff. They just require different stupid stuff. Ever had to sign an anti-Iran affidavit for a public contract? Check. How about a pro-Israel declaration? Check.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Republicans don't reduce stupid stuff. They just require different stupid stuff. Ever had to sign an anti-Iran affidavit for a public contract? Check. How about a pro-Israel declaration? Check.

Those two things had and have supermajority support in both parties in Congress and ARE NOT stupid things.

Your ability to make money indiscriminately IS NOT AND NEVER WILL be placed above the ability of our nation and her people collectively to defend ourselves against hostile actors and in the favor of allies—in fact, your ability to prosper is contingent upon our ability to do make these choices, for both you and your descendants.

Anything other interpretations mean that you have lost the plot and care more about your own narrow self-economic-interest than the interests of our people.

[Denver]

No surprise here but the land at 38th and Blake that was originally to be the new home of WTC is now on the market for sale. Hopefully a developer with the ability to do a project of this magnitude will buy it.

[TakeFive]

Funny and Fair

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Republicans don't reduce stupid stuff. They just require different stupid stuff. Ever had to sign an anti-Iran affidavit for a public contract? Check. How about a pro-Israel declaration? Check.

No question that Republicans relish being Big Bullies.

I'm listening to my favorite radio talker (from Tampa Bay) last night who didn't vote for Trump and wouldn't vote for him. He finds DeSantis irritating; mentioned how impressed he was with Nicki Haley's CNN Town Hall. He's more of throwback to when politicians had dignity, integrity - at least as compared to now.

-------------------------

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Those two things had and have supermajority support in both parties in Congress and ARE NOT stupid things.

Your ability to make money indiscriminately IS NOT AND NEVER WILL be placed above the ability of our nation and her people collectively to defend ourselves against hostile actors and in the favor of allies—in fact, your ability to prosper is contingent upon our ability to do make these choices, for both you and your descendants.

Anything other interpretations mean that you have lost the plot and care more about your own narrow self-economic-interest than the interests of our people.

Values, Politics and Policies are a tricky mix. Everybody want to impose their stuff on everybody else. Our true strength is in our diversity, tolerance and even handedness.

For example, making school children recite the Pledge of Allegiance may be harmless but it's surely silly & stupid.

Our growing relationship with Saudi Arabia goes back to the days of GWB. But as we insisted on 'parenting' them in recent years it backfired. They're now cutting deals with Russia, China and other Middle eastern countries. Sort of an in-our-face response to our meddling.

Be careful what you ask for.