Lamenting the decline of the car

[lio45]

Anglos like their Blue Oval, though there's a little difference in size

[MolsonExport]

[Floppa]

One big problem with electric vehicles is weight, since road wear is proportional to the fourth power of axle weight. And since EV's weight a ton more than ICEVs, the road wear is gonna be way way waaaaaaayyyy higher. Instead of investing in EV infrastructure, we need to focus on shifting away from cars and trucks as the main mode of transport altogether.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Floppa

One big problem with electric vehicles is weight, since road wear is proportional to the fourth power of axle weight. And since EV's weight a ton more than ICEVs, the road wear is gonna be way way waaaaaaayyyy higher. Instead of investing in EV infrastructure, we need to focus on shifting away from cars and trucks as the main mode of transport altogether.

I disagree. Tesla Model 3 long range weights 1800kg. BMW 330i comes in at 1700kg.

Batteries are heavy, no doubt, but no big engine block and other components helps offset that weight.

Regardless, it isn't passenger cars that are hard on roads. It's big trucks, buses, etc. that weigh 10x that, or more.

[drew]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A lot of people on here are disciples of the autonomous car, and feel that the future of cities is to have people simply summon roving "bot" cars to take them wherever they want to go.

I will leave this here for discussion:



Drivers will always be necessary to serve as pilots in the vehicle in case things go down the shitter. They need to be able to intervene in emergency situations. People therefore will still need to learn how to drive. Bot cars will remain an urbanists wet dream for the foreseeable future. Private car ownership isn't going anywhere anytime soon............

A tesla with a driver looking quite disengaged (I assume it was operating with some sort of autonomous assist) passed me on the highway this weekend. As it had just passed me, we were approaching a truck in the shoulder with flashing lights - and the Tesla hammered on the brakes. It seemed to me that the application of the brakes was far too aggressive to be a typical driver disengaging the cruise or something like that.

It was actually a bit of a dangerous maneuver considering we were all travelling in excess of 100 kmph.

I wonder if there was a software update sent out regarding the issues with emergency vehicles.

[Floppa]

Originally Posted by drew

A tesla with a driver looking quite disengaged (I assume it was operating with some sort of autonomous assist) passed me on the highway this weekend. As it had just passed me, we were approaching a truck in the shoulder with flashing lights - and the Tesla hammered on the brakes. It seemed to me that the application of the brakes was far too aggressive to be a typical driver disengaging the cruise or something like that.

It was actually a bit of a dangerous maneuver considering we were all travelling in excess of 100 kmph.

I wonder if there was a software update sent out regarding the issues with emergency vehicles.

The AEV/Musk fanclub really needs to watch The Terminator Trilogy

[ssiguy]

Obviously over the next decades battery technology will grow dramatically and they will become more powerful, vastly shorter recharge times, and MUCH, MUCH smaller and lighter.

Due to this and not having to be lighter and smaller to accommodate high fuel efficiency and low emissions targets, it makes you wonder if we will see a return of the big cars of the 50s, 60s & 70s. People didn't choose to have far less space in their cars because they all of a sudden felt like travelling in a sardine can but because this was the only way that the auto manufacturers could meet those mandated targets.

With battery vehicles that is not an issue so it will be interesting to see if we are about to see a resurgence of the big monsters of yesteryear.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Obviously over the next decades battery technology will grow dramatically and they will become more powerful, vastly shorter recharge times, and MUCH, MUCH smaller and lighter.

Due to this and not having to be lighter and smaller to accommodate high fuel efficiency and low emissions targets, it makes you wonder if we will see a return of the big cars of the 50s, 60s & 70s. People didn't choose to have far less space in their cars because they all of a sudden felt like travelling in a sardine can but because this was the only way that the auto manufacturers could meet those mandated targets.

With battery vehicles that is not an issue so it will be interesting to see if we are about to see a resurgence of the big monsters of yesteryear.

we have already seen a return to huge vehicles. at least a third of new vehicles on the roads are grotesquely huge pickup trucks, and another third are SUVs/crossovers and Minivans.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

we have already seen a return to huge vehicles. at least a third of new vehicles on the roads are grotesquely huge pickup trucks, and another third are SUVs/crossovers and Minivans.

Carbon taxes aren't high enough.

Cities aren't building wider roads. The opposite is true. I think we've seen the peak of "big vehicle".

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Carbon taxes aren't high enough.

Cities aren't building wider roads. The opposite is true. I think we've seen the peak of "big vehicle".

As much as I would like that to be true, I just don't see it. American Auto manufacturers are still selling off the last of their cars on their dealer lots and are only just starting to roll out the replacement fleet of SUVs. Cars like the new Hummer are gigantic beasts and will sell like hotcakes.

Cars will keep getting bigger, at least for the foreseeable future.

Big vehicle isn't also only just the F-350 mega-trucks, it's people who used to buy a Ford Focus springing for a Ford Escape instead, people who used to buy an Accord upgrading to a CRV.. People who used to buy a Chevy Spark upgrading to a Chevy Trax. None of the replacement vehicles are "large" in the mega-sized sense, but they are larger than before and push the trend of increasing average vehicle sizes.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

As much as I would like that to be true, I just don't see it. American Auto manufacturers are still selling off the last of their cars on their dealer lots and are only just starting to roll out the replacement fleet of SUVs. Cars like the new Hummer are gigantic beasts and will sell like hotcakes.

Cars will keep getting bigger, at least for the foreseeable future.

Big vehicle isn't also only just the F-350 mega-trucks, it's people who used to buy a Ford Focus springing for a Ford Escape instead, people who used to buy an Accord upgrading to a CRV.. People who used to buy a Chevy Spark upgrading to a Chevy Trax. None of the replacement vehicles are "large" in the mega-sized sense, but they are larger than before and push the trend of increasing average vehicle sizes.

It's actually been noted that vehicles get larger until they hit a point where the lose the interest of the average customer.

To wit: the median American sedan of 1970 was probably something like the Chevrolet Impala. A boat of a car powered by an (optional) big-block V8 engine. A decade later, it was something like a Chevrolet Celebrity - a four-cylinder/V6 front-drive sedan.

It's interesting to see how certain models have bloated themselves into extinction. The Ford Taurus comes to mind.

The resurgent "mid-sized" truck market may portend the decline of the huge trucks of today.

There's just a certain size of vehicle that feels 'right'. However, I suspect the small SUV market will do quite well into the future because people like to slide in sideways to a vehicle, not climb up or down.

[jamincan]

Originally Posted by thewave46

To wit: the median American sedan of 1970 was probably something like the Chevrolet Impala. A boat of a car powered by an (optional) big-block V8 engine. A decade later, it was something like a Chevrolet Celebrity - a four-cylinder/V6 front-drive sedan.

My gut says that the oil crisis in the 70s might have had a major part in that shift, but I'm not an expert or anything.

[Architype]

^ Yes it was initiated by the oil crisis and increased fuel costs, and a resulting belief that smaller was better for the planet and the right thing to do. The typical car of 1970 was wildly inefficient compared to today's typical passenger vehicle with advancements in technology. Paradoxically, the ICE has been relatively perfected now, just at the time when we are encouraged to switch to EVs. Whatever the mode, performance is better now, but the increase in efficiency has allowed vehicles to get larger, taking away much of the progress achieved in emissions and fuel consumption. (Real men of course have to drive vehicles large enough to transport their manly apparatuses.)

_____________________________________________

Here's a comparison of typical popular vehicles 51 years apart:

2021 Honda Civic 1498 cc, 91 cui, 158/178 hp
curb weight 2947 lbs.
0-60 mph in 8.2 seconds
Fuel consumption: 32 mpg city / 42 mpg highway

1970 Chevrolet Impala 4-Door Sedan 250cui, 155 hp
curb weight: 3781 lbs.
0-60 mph 13.5 seconds
Fuel consumption: 19.1 mpg

(Exact specs may differ with minor variations of vehicles)

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by jamincan

My gut says that the oil crisis in the 70s might have had a major part in that shift, but I'm not an expert or anything.

That's fair.

There's still a sweet spot in the market for an optimally-sized vehicle, I think.

It might be taller than before, but the weight hasn't grown much. A current model Honda CR-V weighs about 3,600 lbs, not much more than a 2000-05 Impala (3,400 lbs). Using the EPA's measures, the 2000 Impala gets 21 mpg combined and the 2018 CR-V 27 mpg.

Once you get outside of a certain size range, the market thins. The market for very large SUVs is not that big, and the market for large sedans very small and shrinking quickly.

Trucks are an anomaly, but as I mentioned before the mid-sized truck market has experienced something of a resurgence. By the mid-2000s, most of Detroit had considered it dead, but their current full-size models have grown so much that an opening presented itself.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Architype

1970 Chevrolet Impala 4-Door Sedan 250cui, 155 hp
curb weight: 3781 lbs.
0-60 mph 13.5 seconds
Fuel consumption: 19.1 mpg

Hey, that was the economy version of the Impala!

[Architype]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Hey, that was the economy version of the Impala!

Yes, the base model engine, my dad's kind of car. When I got my license we switched to loaded V8s of course.
Compared to the base model Civic, it seems a reasonable comparison.

The larger engines were not much better:
"1972 Chevrolet Impala Hardtop Coupe 402cui - 0-60 mph 11.2 seconds"

[ssiguy]

The decline in the size of the cars and motors in the 70s to 80s was not because people wanted small cars but due to, as Jamincan points out, the oil crisis of the early/mid 70s where the government began to demand higher fuel efficiency and Nixon's creation of the EPA. People still wanted the size and luxury that large cars provided which is why we saw the rise of the minivan because, due to technically been categorized as a van, it was exempt from the fuel efficiency standards that were imposed on cars.

This is also why cars began to look the same after 1990s because just as they shrank the cars to make them more fuel efficient, they also streamlined them to lower their drag. Today, every car looks exactly the same as the next one and if it wasn't for the front decals most could never tell them apart.

When ICE is gone and fuel efficiency and emissions are no longer concerns and aerodynamics no longer needed we may not only see the return of big cars but also the wild and crazy design difference that were the norm before 1980.

Who knows, in 30 years we may find that our most popular vehicles are not trucks or SUVs but monster cars with opera windows, mega-fins, hardtops, and muscle cars.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The decline in the size of the cars and motors in the 70s to 80s was not because people wanted small cars but due to, as Jamincan points out, the oil crisis of the early/mid 70s where the government began to demand higher fuel efficiency and Nixon's creation of the EPA. People still wanted the size and luxury that large cars provided which is why we saw the rise of the minivan because, due to technically been categorized as a van, it was exempt from the fuel efficiency standards that were imposed on cars.

The fragmentation of the market is interesting.

What I'm curious about is how much the pickup truck replaced the old-school Detroit sedan. They're large body-on-frame, rear-wheel drive (or 4WD) vehicles. Just like Detroit was making back in the day.

In another sense, large old-school sedans like the Crown Victoria died out regardless as the last one was produced in 2012. That particular lineage was replaced by Japanese/Korean cars and front-drive based SUVs.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

The decline in the size of the cars and motors in the 70s to 80s was not because people wanted small cars but due to, as Jamincan points out, the oil crisis ...

This is also why cars began to look the same after 1990s because just as they shrank the cars to make them more fuel efficient, they also streamlined them to lower their drag. Today, every car looks exactly the same as the next one and if it wasn't for the front decals most could never tell them apart.

When ICE is gone and fuel efficiency and emissions are no longer concerns and aerodynamics no longer needed we may not only see the return of big cars but also the wild and crazy design difference that were the norm before 1980.

Who knows, in 30 years we may find that our most popular vehicles are not trucks or SUVs but monster cars with opera windows, mega-fins, hardtops, and muscle cars.

Purchase cost and maintenance costs for parts is another factor to go along with this. You may desire a highly individualized luxury car which will not even be produced a year later, but this will drive the cost of replacement parts through the roof, if they are available at all. So all cars look alike because they want them to be cheap & marketable, using proven design and common interchangeable parts with high durability as much as possible, so Corollas & Civics will have low cost maintenance for years to come, whereas a low production specialty sports car or one that failed miserably due to idiosyncratic design will have prohibitively high maintenance costs. Whether ultra efficiency will permit everyday cars to have ridiculous fins etc. like the 50s is anyone's guess.

[Truenorth00]

All cars look alike because:

1) Common safety standards. Particularly pedestrian impact standards.

2) Common platform used across multiple brands for each automaker. It's like getting Rogers or Fido for cell service. Same network.

Fuel economy has very little to do with it at this point. Especially in an era where nobody has any issues buying big, boxy pickups. And the more square the shape, the easier it is to make.