MIAMI | One Brickell CityCentre | 977 FT | 60 FLOORS

[JMKeynes]

I wonder what's the breakdown of office space, residential space, and hotel space in the Vagina tower. Miami does not have the kind of office demand that NY does to build 1m sf of office space on spec. In Miami, they do backflips over 20k sf leases.

The famous Go-Gos song, "Our Lips Are Sealed" does not apply to this tower!

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I wonder what's the breakdown of office space, residential space, and hotel space in the Vagina tower. Miami does not have the kind of office demand that NY does to build 1m sf of office space on spec. In Miami, they do backflips over 20k sf leases.

The famous Go-Gos song, "Our Lips Are Sealed" does not apply to this tower!

This is only office and retail. 1.05 million sf.

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

This is only office and retail. 1.05 million sf.

I think that there’s zero chance that they’ll get a construction loan without pre-leasing 500k sf. That, in and of itself, won’t be easy, as Miami doesn’t have tons of corporate HQs, massive law firms, etc.

In any event, Swire's myopic statement that "construction will begin soon" is vague and ambiguous. It might refer to clearing trees and debris. It could even refer to foundation work, but there's no chance whatsoever that a 1m sf office tower will rise on spec in Miami. That wouldn't happen in cities with far more vibrant office markets like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and even little Charlotte.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I think that there’s zero chance that they’ll get a construction loan without pre-leasing 500k sf. That, in and of itself, won’t be easy, as Miami doesn’t have tons of corporate HQs, massive law firms, etc.

In any event, Swire's myopic statement that "construction will begin soon" is vague and ambiguous. It might refer to clearing trees and debris. It could even refer to foundation work, but there's no chance whatsoever that a 1m sf office tower will rise on spec in Miami. That wouldn't happen in cities with far more vibrant office markets like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and even little Charlotte.

If that we're the case, then it's it bit strange that they needed voters to approve larger office floor plates in the latest elections.

The nearby 830 Brickell office tower that just went up is fully leased:
https://www.thenextmiami.com/830-bri...on-completion/

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

If that we're the case, then it's it bit strange that they needed voters to approve larger office floor plates in the latest elections.

The nearby 830 Brickell office tower that just went up is fully leased:
https://www.thenextmiami.com/830-bri...on-completion/

But how much office space does 830 Brickell have? Also, it's the first new major office tower to rise in Miami in a decade. Therefore, it absorbed whatever demand was there.

I love Miami, and but it's not a corporate powerhouse.

Also, there has been no announcement of a huge corporate tenant for this tower.

[Urbannizer]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

But how much office space does 830 Brickell have? Also, it's the first new major office tower to rise in Miami in a decade. Therefore, it absorbed whatever demand was there.

I love Miami, and but it's not a corporate powerhouse.

Also, there has been no announcement of a huge corporate tenant for this tower.

There doesn’t have to be an announcement of a tenant-a lot of times office developers have a tenant signed on but don’t make an official announcement until the building is well into construction.

With their newest office tower fully leased and Citadel building their own HQ I’d take there’s demand for more.

I prefer the original design but this too is good. Hope the groundbreaking date comes to be, congrats Miami.

[UrbanImpact]

Perhaps groundbreaking in this situation is a marketing ploy for what in reality will be demolition of the existing building
https://goo.gl/maps/fbSuBdDNrfBu5EtU8

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

Perhaps groundbreaking in this situation is a marketing ploy for what in reality will be demolition of the existing building
https://goo.gl/maps/fbSuBdDNrfBu5EtU8

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

[ArchGuy1]

From what I understand, there are or at least were plans to include a lounge serving as a public observation deck on the 80th floor and restaurant on the 79th floor and this was particularly true when the building was planned to be mixed use. However in 2022, the building was redesign to be entirely offices, but I am wondering if the 80th floor observation lounge and the 79th floor restaurant are still included in the plans.

[JMKeynes]

I knew that this would not be built without significant pre-leasing.

How many square feet of office space will this have?

https://www.thenextmiami.com/one-bri...pter/#comments

[Dale]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

I knew that this would not be built without significant pre-leasing.

How many square feet of office space will this have?

https://www.thenextmiami.com/one-bri...pter/#comments

25-40% not a steep hurdle.

[JMKeynes]

How much sf will the tower have? If it’s 1.5m, forty Percent is 600k sf. That’s a lot for Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston, which are much bigger commercial centers. It's a huge amount for Miami, which is not a corporate capital. Not to mention, it seems that Ken Griffin is building on spec., and he will have a lot of extra space to lease, as I doubt that Citidel will occupy more than 500k sf in Miami.

I love Miami, and it's great for the leader of a hedge fund to spend five months a year in. However, it is not (and will never be) a major F500 center or a major financial center.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

How much sf will the tower have? If it’s 1.5m, forty Percent is 600k sf. That’s a lot for Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston, which are much bigger commercial centers. It's a huge amount for Miami, which is not a corporate capital. Not to mention, it seems that Ken Griffin is building on spec., and he will have a lot of extra space to lease, as I doubt that Citidel will occupy more than 500k sf in Miami.

I love Miami, and it's great for the leader of a hedge fund to spend five months a year in. However, it is not (and will never be) a major F500 center or a major financial center.

And you’re precluding the possibility that it could be ? Ross and Swire are just smoking crack in this one ?

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by Dale

And you’re precluding the possibility that it could be ? Ross and Swire are just smoking crack in this one ?

Yes and yes.

Haven’t they been talking about this for the past ten years? They'll be releasing new renderings ten years from now. They should switch to residential. There are enough New Yorkers are rich Latin Americans that would buy vacation condos there.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

Yes and yes.

Haven’t they been talking about this for the past ten years? They'll be releasing new renderings ten years from now. They should switch to residential. There are enough New Yorkers are rich Latin Americans that would buy vacation condos there.

*sighs*

[JMKeynes]

Originally Posted by Dale

*sighs*

I hope that I'm proven wrong, but I highly doubt it. Corporate relos these days all seem to go to Dallas, and even there, they're not going downtown. They seem to be building undesirable corporate parks in Plano. In any event, you never hear of a F500 moving its HQ or even thousands of jobs to Miami. The entire state of Florida simply holds no allure to major corporations. That's an indisputable fact.

[rivernorthlurker]

I'm 1000% rooting for this but unf I think JMKeynes sentiment is more realistic.

830 Brickell is still filling up and is the only new major office tower in Miami in years (decades?). And it's only 525,000 sqft office from what I've read I've been shocked at how relatively small the Miami office market is myself. Trend of companies 'Taking their talents to Miami' peaked during the pandemic years - I'm not sure how long this will carry over for years after when the initial excitement wanes.

One Brickell CityCentre is gonna be really hard to pre-lease 25-40% when the Citadel building is 100% a go/reliable and already anchored by Citadel itself and will put additional space on the market.

The square footages below are tiny, esp after WeWork pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. And Citadel's 90k sqft is only temporary until their building is done. Those two leases were half the building... Now we're talking a puny 250k sqft (not fully leased) outside those two.

https://floridayimby.com/2022/08/cit...-district.html

The roster includes: Sidley Austin – 60,000 square feet, Microsoft – 50,000 square feet, A-CAP – 20,000 square feet, Thoma Bravo – 36,500 square feet, Ci Financial – 40,000 square feet, Marsh Insurance – 25,000 square feet and AerCap – 20,000 square feet. Citadel now sits at the helm of this roster with the 90,000-square foot lease. Asking rents at 830 Brickell are reportedly far above the average in Miami. Commercial real estate firm JLL reports asking rents between $125 – $150 per square foot at the tower, while the average in Miami ranges around $51 per square foot.

As mentioned Wework also pulled out of 147,000 sqft in August. Maybe the sqft $ was too expensive? Since Miami seems to be gravy for them https://www.thenextmiami.com/wework-...top-worldwide/

[JMKeynes]

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if even Citadel dramatically reduced the amount of office space in their tower and shifts space to hotels and condos. I’d be shocked if Citadel needs more than 300k sf in Miami. Everyone will want to go to NY.

[rivernorthlurker]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if even Citadel dramatically reduced the amount of office space in their tower and shifts space to hotels and condos. I’d be shocked if Citadel needs more than 300k sf in Miami. Everyone will want to go to NY.

The Citadel Miami office might literally end up being a bit of a 'company perk' to some degree.

147,000/525,000 sqft of the 830 Brickell = 28% of the most premier office tower in a 'once in a generation' real estate boom in Miami, being leased (previously) by a co-working company doesn't exactly scream 'everyone's moving to Miami' commercialy, quite the opposite.

By comparison, Sterling Bay is building random 500k sqft offices in West Loop Chicago filled with companies I've never heard of and the city has a fairly high office vacancy rate https://sterlingbay.com/our-portfolio/

I just feel the 'narrative' for office leasing in Miami doesn't exactly fit the evidence unfortunately.

[ArchGuy1]

Originally Posted by JMKeynes

How much sf will the tower have? If it’s 1.5m, forty Percent is 600k sf. That’s a lot for Atlanta, Dallas, or Houston, which are much bigger commercial centers. It's a huge amount for Miami, which is not a corporate capital. Not to mention, it seems that Ken Griffin is building on spec., and he will have a lot of extra space to lease, as I doubt that Citidel will occupy more than 500k sf in Miami.

I love Miami, and it's great for the leader of a hedge fund to spend five months a year in. However, it is not (and will never be) a major F500 center or a major financial center.

Do you personally know if a public observation deck like what is seen at the Empire State Building or Sears Tower is planned.