Calgary Federal Politics

[Jimby]

a generation ago, people died in agony because doctors were so afraid of creating addictions, but now no one here in Calgary has to die in pain if they are receiving care from a physician and I would quietly say that there has always been doctor assisted death, let's not call it suicide.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by Jimby

a generation ago, people died in agony because doctors were so afraid of creating addictions, but now no one here in Calgary has to die in pain if they are receiving care from a physician and I would quietly say that there has always been doctor assisted death, let's not call it suicide.

I wouldn't be too surprised if this was already happening a bit at the discretion of the patient and doctor. When my grandfather passed away a few years ago, it was two weeks of pure agony and he had expressed a preference for doctor assisted death.

[Radley77]

Update on facebook networking growth, no surprise that Joan is failing to be transparent or engaging online and has no real ideas beyond Conservative boilerplate campaign material:
Note: scales are on different axis

[eternallyme]

Calgary Centre is a centrist riding though that only goes Conservative by default basically on province-wide tidal waves? As a by-election there is no tidal wave and this could indeed be a perfect storm that results in something weird happening...

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick

And that's total crap.

So who are you voting for?

Thats not total crap, that public relations management 101.

[Radley77]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Calgary Centre is a centrist riding though that only goes Conservative by default basically on province-wide tidal waves? As a by-election there is no tidal wave and this could indeed be a perfect storm that results in something weird happening...

Issues like tanker bans, pipeline bans, oilsands bans aren't progressive attitudes at all. I don't think Albertans vote Conservative by default so much as there are poor policy ideas. Heck, Alberta was one of the first jurisdictions in North America to implement a carbon tax.

[5seconds]

I saw Chris Turner at a small gathering on Friday night. He mede the excellent point that the polls don't reflect voting intentions of everyone, just those with a land-line and who are willing to answer an unrecognised phone number! (Of course those tend to be older people at home at the time of the call)

It will be interesting to see how the polls end up tallying with the final result. Calgary has already seen the win of a progressive upstart who polled low at the outset.

[vid]

Originally Posted by Cage

Thats not total crap, that public relations management 101.

The Greens generally (on paper) accept dissent; although accept of dissent has decreased since May replaced Harris several years ago (the party has taken a hard swing to the left under her; it used to be the world's only right wing environmentalist party).

The oilsands is a major issue though, so it will be interesting to see how May handles it. If Turner is elected, she is going to have to compete with him to voice the policy of the Green Party, and you're correct that if he stands up there and says "Party policy is X but I think Y, instead" it is going to be an issue for him and the party itself.

One of Thunder Bay's MPs (Bruce Hyer) who is currently out west supporting the Greens, is himself a strong environmentalist but was elected as NDP (new Independent) experienced this issue himself within the NDP, and I have a feeling he is reluctant to join the Greens (even though he has a good working relationship with Elizabeth May) for that reason. The idea that the Greens would be open to dissent from its members is slowly fading away which is unfortunate; the acceptance of alternate dialogue within the party is part of what originally attracted me to them back in 2006.

[Dado]

Turner would probably be a better fit in a Green Party under David Chernushenko, who won a third of the votes in the last Green Party leadership convention to May's two thirds. It is kind of notable that Mr. Chernushenko did not remain in the party as deputy leader nor go on to run in the subsequent federal elections (he is now an Ottawa councillor) despite polling as one of the highest Green candidates nationwide in Ottawa Centre (he had the misfortune to run against Ed Broadbent and then Paul Dewar, the son of a popular former mayor).

Still, perhaps what the Green Party (especially its left wing) and Ms. May really needs is another MP in Parliament to better represent the conservative side of the environmental movement. It's not like conservative voters are against voting Green - many did in the 2007 Ontario election.



On another note... just why do so many in Calgary use "YYC" (i.e. "Turner 4 YYC") as shorthand for Calgary? I know it's the airport code but you don't see Ottawans going and stamping "YOW" all over the place - when we need a shorthand we go with "Ott" (#ottcity #ottnews #ottpoli etc). It's kind of a curious shorthand anyway for a place like Calgary - an airport code concocted by centralizing federal bureaucrats in Ottawa who decided on forcing every city in Canada to have an airport code beginning with 'Y'.

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by 5seconds

I saw Chris Turner at a small gathering on Friday night. He mede the excellent point that the polls don't reflect voting intentions of everyone, just those with a land-line and who are willing to answer an unrecognised phone number! (Of course those tend to be older people at home at the time of the call)

It will be interesting to see how the polls end up tallying with the final result. Calgary has already seen the win of a progressive upstart who polled low at the outset.

The land line line is getting old, all the pollsters maintain their own databases now.

The 'willing to answer an unrecognized phone number' thing is interesting, since during the provincial campaign you know who those people were? People angry with the incumbent. Angry people self select themselves into the sample at a higher rate. In this race, those people don't default to the CPC.

All polls of the nature we have seen are suspect, such a geopgrahically limited sample and the way above average population turnover in the riding makes it doubly so.

These polls should be taken with the attitude "you get what you pay for".

[Rusty van Reddick]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

The land line line is getting old, all the pollsters maintain their own databases now.

Uh, no. This poll was ONLY LAND LINES. So the "land line line" is perfectly appropriate here. 100% valid comment.

Keep trying to make it look as if Turner doesn't have the momentum here.

[fusili]

You would be surprised at the shift in support. Heck, we've convinced people with Conservative signs on their lawns to vote for Turner. I am optimistic about this one.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by fusili

You would be surprised at the shift in support. Heck, we've convinced people with Conservative signs on their lawns to vote for Turner. I am optimistic about this one.

I could see that with the older retired folks, but not professionals in-tune with Calgary's economic needs.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Dado

On another note... just why do so many in Calgary use "YYC" (i.e. "Turner 4 YYC") as shorthand for Calgary? I know it's the airport code but you don't see Ottawans going and stamping "YOW" all over the place - when we need a shorthand we go with "Ott" (#ottcity #ottnews #ottpoli etc). It's kind of a curious shorthand anyway for a place like Calgary - an airport code concocted by centralizing federal bureaucrats in Ottawa who decided on forcing every city in Canada to have an airport code beginning with 'Y'.

YYC became the main hashtag for Calgary on twitter (#yyc, #yyccc, #yyccentre in this by-election), so its just started being used beyond that now.

Plus those of us in aviation have been using airport codes for a long time. Everyone else just wants to be as cool as us...

Also, not every airport code in Canada begins with Y (too many airports for that to work). They do all start with C though.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I could see that with the older retired folks, but not professionals in-tune with Calgary's economic needs.

Wouldn't the older retired folks be the most likely to vote Conservative, especially on social policy? Unless they are so socially conservative that they are staying home and wishing the Wildrose Party's right wing (i.e. the so-con wing) ran candidates...

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Wouldn't the older retired folks be the most likely to vote Conservative, especially on social policy? Unless they are so socially conservative that they are staying home and wishing the Wildrose Party's right wing (i.e. the so-con wing) ran candidates...

Yeah - but the greens can change their mind with a little bit of weed for the pain.

[Radley77]

Update from 308.com:
This *may* indicate that Green support may be coming from the Conservatives...



Reference: http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Looks like Joan Crockatt still has a good chance of winning, despite only going to one debate so far.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Also, not every airport code in Canada begins with Y (too many airports for that to work). They do all start with C though.

We need to wash your bucolic ICAO mouth out with some antiseptic IATA soap.

[fusili]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I could see that with the older retired folks, but not professionals in-tune with Calgary's economic needs.

The professional crowd is moving green too. I've talked to many in the oil and gas industry and they are definitely receptive to the Greens. Several people working in the campaign are Oil and Gas veterans.

When Peter Kent's response to environmental criticism of our energy sector is the "ethical oil" argument (AKA we are not a dictatorship like Saudi Arabia) it hurts our industry, because we just look defensive. Showing actual leadership in environmental stewardship and responsible resource development is a much better strategy. If we want to convince people that the oil sands are a responsible resource, we don't focus on how Hugo Chavez is a dictator, but how things like SAGD reduce the impact of extraction. We focus on demonstrating how federal and provincial regulations and monitoring improve ground and fresh water quality involved in the industry. We listen to people's critiques and explain how we are addressing them rather then dismissing them as radicals. That is how you show leadership and gain allies.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by fusili

When Peter Kent's response to environmental criticism of our energy sector is the "ethical oil" argument (AKA we are not a dictatorship like Saudi Arabia) it hurts our industry, because we just look defensive.

I don't think anyone here is supporting Peter Kent, Ezra Levant and their crowd, so let's not make a strawman. The question really is, how much upside do the greens have vs. the potential upside of a philosophically more centrist that also has a good environmental head on his shoulders. The optics of the greens, as you know, is a one trick pony / single issue party. Be that the reality or not, a single green in the parliament will not result in anything for Calgary, and will not really even afford him much of a voice when it comes to committees and the like. That's a reality.

What is clear is that the centrist vote overall, or non-con vote to make it even broader and include the greens/NDP, cumulatively, is much larger than the support for the cons. How that pans out will depend largely on the third place contender.

As I've elluded to in a prior note, Chris may have peaked too early, leaving the cons that you've converted enough time to re-think their positions. They may realize that they'll potentially either put into parliament a lone wolf without a real voice, or split the vote allowing for the Wildrose Party's preferred candidate to get in.

You can call it fear mongering or not, it is simply just the reality. Anyone with a brain can see that the non-con vote is currently split.