Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[Dengler Avenue]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le122vas9aM
I watched all of this at x2. I couldn't help but wonder, "Will Canada become totally irrelevant in the future..."

In terms of relevance, it's like JT has tried to make a name for Canada (through other means) but that those means may be bringing a bad one...

[Truenorth00]

Canada is substantially irrelevant across many domains now. Canadians are mostly just in denial about it. I wish this wasn't true. But the national appetite to be a world player seems to be lacking.

It's particularly ironic that Canada squandered substantial gains in AI by being left out of partnerships like AUKUS.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le122vas9aM
I watched all of this at x2. I couldn't help but wonder, "Will Canada become totally irrelevant in the future..."

In terms of relevance, it's like JT has tried to make a name for Canada (through other means) but that those means may be bringing a bad one...

Here is the list of companies acquired by Microsoft:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...s_by_Microsoft

What is shocking about the list is how many of them are from the US. Equally shocking is what the second most dominant country is. Canada.

As a country we are good at creating and incubating IT related tech. We we bad at nurturing those business to become global players in their own right.

Honestly AI is no different.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's particularly ironic that Canada squandered substantial gains in AI by being left out of partnerships like AUKUS.

I even saw an AUKUS TV commercial last night just to rub salt in the wounds.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I even saw an AUKUS TV commercial last night just to rub salt in the wounds.

The real rub is that they are now discussing getting Japan into AUKUS.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def...ch-development

Says a lot that a non-anglo country is preferred to Canada.

Sadder still is that I don't expect Poilievre will change much. Pretty sure he'd rather give out tax cuts than raise the defence budget by $10B. We're not getting into AUKUS if that happens.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The real rub is that they are now discussing getting Japan into AUKUS.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def...ch-development

Says a lot that a non-anglo country is preferred to Canada.

Sadder still is that I don't expect Poilievre will change much. Pretty sure he'd rather give out tax cuts than raise the defence budget by $10B. We're not getting into AUKUS if that happens.

What do you imagine AUKUS gets us? It's a nuclear submarine deal which now looks like it won't get the Aussies a nuclear submarine because US interests always trump everything especially with Congress in charge. I'm partial to the argument if we invest in one thing subs might be a good niche where we can contribute to a near peer conflict over say Taiwan. But DND won't prioritize and the pols aren't going to fund all the NDHQ wet dreams.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

What do you imagine AUKUS gets us?

Access and cooperation on high end research on topics with national significance. Go back and look at all the different research fields that the AUKUS partners are promising to cooperate on. If I was a Canadian researcher or entrepreneur in any one of these fields, I'd be looking to move to an AUKUS country.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It's a nuclear submarine deal ....

This is the Liberal talking point.

Meanwhile they have been trying hard to argue Canada should be let in to the AUKUS R&D track even if we aren't involved in subs.

The Liberals (like yourself) are making the failing assumption that economics and security can be separated, as it was in the past. Turns out our allies won't allow that kind of mooching anymore.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The real rub is that they are now discussing getting Japan into AUKUS.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def...ch-development

Says a lot that a non-anglo country is preferred to Canada.

Sadder still is that I don't expect Poilievre will change much. Pretty sure he'd rather give out tax cuts than raise the defence budget by $10B. We're not getting into AUKUS if that happens.

Interesting bit at the end the Australians are the ones that are stalling to let others in. Including New Zeeland and Canada.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Access and cooperation on high end research on topics with national significance. Go back and look at all the different research fields that the AUKUS partners are promising to cooperate on. If I was a Canadian researcher or entrepreneur in any one of these fields, I'd be looking to move to an AUKUS country.



This is the Liberal talking point.

Meanwhile they have been trying hard to argue Canada should be let in to the AUKUS R&D track even if we aren't involved in subs.

The Liberals (like yourself) are making the failing assumption that economics and security can be separated, as it was in the past. Turns out our allies won't allow that kind of mooching anymore.

Mooching is a bs DND talking point. The truth is the US doesn't care about our contribution. We were dying in Afghanistan and they ignored us and we shunned them in Vietnam and Iraq and it was about the same.

Boeing learned we will stand up for ourselves. We have a huge trade deficit barely exporting a fraction of what we import. They want to cut us off we will buy Euro kit.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Boeing learned we will stand up for ourselves. We have a huge trade deficit barely exporting a fraction of what we import. They want to cut us off we will buy Euro kit.

+1

As someone who isn't involved in the Forces, I've struggled to justify the level of spending that we'd need to join AUKUS, or to achieve certain capabilities advocated by Truenorth and others. I find myself really wanting to agree but being unable to see how its worth it. Certain things like Arctic defence, sure.

But if it comes down to billions of dollars, I don't think the average Canadian can see the benefit of 'keeping up with the Joneses' in Australia, or trying to be seen as not mooching off the Americans. Respectfully, I don't think most people care about those things if they're not in the military, and I'm not sure many of us can see the value in changing that. Telling taxpayers we need to spend billions on, say, nuclear subs, so we can better patrol Taiwan and be respected by other country's militaries...tough sell.

Again, certain things like a basic degree of control of the northern border and having ships that don't leak, I think most can support.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by savevp

Again, certain things like a basic degree of control of the northern border and having ships that don't leak, I think most can support.

Respectfully, modern warfare is highly technical, and, a small technologic advantage can make all the difference in the world in how capable your armed forces are. A "boat that doesn't leak" really doesn't cut it.

Think of the Zulu Wars where the Zulu nation attacked British positions in southern Africa with a spirited charge by spearmen, only to be met by gattling guns.

Having a capable military makes all the difference in the world. If you can't play with the big boys, then you might as well hide under a rock and hope that you won't get found.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by savevp

+1

As someone who isn't involved in the Forces, I've struggled to justify the level of spending that we'd need to join AUKUS, or to achieve certain capabilities advocated by Truenorth and others. I find myself really wanting to agree but being unable to see how its worth it. Certain things like Arctic defence, sure.

But if it comes down to billions of dollars, I don't think the average Canadian can see the benefit of 'keeping up with the Joneses' in Australia, or trying to be seen as not mooching off the Americans. Respectfully, I don't think most people care about those things if they're not in the military, and I'm not sure many of us can see the value in changing that. Telling taxpayers we need to spend billions on, say, nuclear subs, so we can better patrol Taiwan and be respected by other country's militaries...tough sell.

Again, certain things like a basic degree of control of the northern border and having ships that don't leak, I think most can support.

Please remember Trumps Quote at the Quebec G7 conference when he asked Trudeau "whats your number?" Trudeau could not give Trump a truthful answer. He may just have to after November 5 . The Canadian defence mooching is coming to an end. Ask yourself this question, as we all have that relative in our extended families. You know, its that Brother in law or Cousin that shows up for the family BBQ with Hotdogs and cheap beer but eats your steak and knows where your best Scotch is. That is where Canada is now and its starting to piss off our Allies because they know we can afford the Steak and Scotch.

Trump is just the petulant type to close the border for a few days to make his point. Oh my the Canadian business community will not care about increased Defence dollars if that were to happen. Remember what Ford did when the truckers closed the Bridges.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Please remember Trumps Quote at the Quebec G7 conference when he asked Trudeau "whats your number?" Trudeau could not give Trump a truthful answer. He may just have to after November 5 . The Canadian defence mooching is coming to an end. Ask yourself this question, as we all have that relative in our extended families. You know, its that Brother in law or Cousin that shows up for the family BBQ with Hotdogs and cheap beer but eats your steak and knows where your best Scotch is. That is where Canada is now and its starting to piss off our Allies because they know we can afford the Steak and Scotch.

Trump is just the petulant type to close the border for a few days to make his point. Oh my the Canadian business community will not care about increased Defence dollars if that were to happen. Remember what Ford did when the truckers closed the Bridges.

If Trump closes the border or does anything to lash out and Trudeau responds with strength as we have almost every time the US tried to intimidate us over defence issues he might just get re-elected. Nothing makes you more popular in Canada and standing up to Trump would be doubly so. If not I guess we'd have missile defence, have fought in Iraq, have nuclear submarines long ago etc.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

If Trump closes the border or does anything to lash out and Trudeau responds with strength as we have almost every time the US tried to intimidate us over defence issues he might just get re-elected. Nothing makes you more popular in Canada and standing up to Trump would be doubly so. If not I guess we'd have missile defence, have fought in Iraq, have nuclear submarines long ago etc.

Exactly what "strength" would Trudeau exhibit? Flowing words salads or a direct admonition to Trump ala Carol Parish style? Canada has been lucky to have been about 27th on the list of U.S. foreign policy concerns as for the most part we all get along. Trump however is a shit disturber and an agent of Chaos and he personally does not trust Trudeau. God knows what he could or would do. Justin should have listened to his Dad's speech from long ago. Living next to America is like sleeping with the Elephant and we are subjected to every grunt and twitch.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

That is where Canada is now and its starting to piss off our Allies because they know we can afford the Steak and Scotch.

But so what? Playing a bit of devils advocate, is this justification to the average Canadian that we need to spend x billions on military hardware? Okay, we've placated the Americans, will 99% of Canadians notice any difference? I'm not sure the threat of Trump temporarily closing the border, even if conceivable, is realistic. And even if so, none of our allies are abandoning us if a hypothetical Russian or Chinese invasion of Canada ever occurred. It's not like we have no military and don't contribute at all to global affairs.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Mooching is a bs DND talking point. The truth is the US doesn't care about our contribution. We were dying in Afghanistan and they ignored us and we shunned them in Vietnam and Iraq and it was about the same.

I get that you think I'm talking my book (cause you do it yourself often enough). But I'm not doing that here. For DND, this is largely irrelevant. The Department goes with whatever crumbs it gets.

I'm speaking here as someone who genuinely cares about our economy and access to tech. I know the kind of tech that is developed and shared in these forums. There's a definite loss to being left out. And given that a lot of these technologies (like AI and quantum computing) are just as important economically as militarily, there will be consequences to being left out of the largest pool of IP and research funding. That's a fact that no amount of rhetoric can change.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Boeing learned we will stand up for ourselves. We have a huge trade deficit barely exporting a fraction of what we import. They want to cut us off we will buy Euro kit.

What are you on about?

We stood up for ourselves by having Bombardier exit commercial airline manufacturing and selling the CSeries program (with hundreds of millions (if not billions) in taxpayer subsidies) to Airbus for $1?

We also just gave Boeing a contract worth several billion for the P-8s.

All of this is Boeing is losing in your mind? I will say this really is such a colonial mindset. "We are sticking it to the man, by buying marginally less and giving away our jewels to their competitor!"

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

But so what? Playing a bit of devils advocate, is this justification to the average Canadian that we need to spend x billions on military hardware? Okay, we've placated the Americans, will 99% of Canadians notice any difference? I'm not sure the threat of Trump temporarily closing the border, even if conceivable, is realistic. And even if so, none of our allies are abandoning us if a hypothetical Russian or Chinese invasion of Canada ever occurred. It's not like we have no military and don't contribute at all to global affairs.

I am more concerned about a post Trump world. Given Trump's age he is a short term concern. What is more concerning is he has transformative for the republic party and not in a good way for us. We may well see the US pull out of NATO. At that point our membership in NATO is even more critical.

What we have going for us is most NATO countries have not been meeting their 2% obligation. That is changing, with Ukraine, the number of European countries below that target is shrinking. Our defence against Russia and China is typed to being part of the NATO club.

Like the US and virtually every major NATO country defence spending is tightly tied to the countries industrial policy. The military is a demanding customer that pushes the demands in materials, tolerances and advanced technology. That eventually makes it may into civilian markets. Silicon Valley in the US is an off-shoot military RF technology. We have a commercial aviation program in Canada today because many decades ago we had a military aviation program.

They grumble a bit about it, but the CAF are the people that are going to come in a rescue people when this is a major flood or forest fire beyond the capacity of local authorities to respond to.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by savevp

But so what? Playing a bit of devils advocate, is this justification to the average Canadian that we need to spend x billions on military hardware? Okay, we've placated the Americans, will 99% of Canadians notice any difference? I'm not sure the threat of Trump temporarily closing the border, even if conceivable, is realistic. And even if so, none of our allies are abandoning us if a hypothetical Russian or Chinese invasion of Canada ever occurred. It's not like we have no military and don't contribute at all to global affairs.

Its not just about placating the Americans. Think about this fact. When the Trudeau government was elected in 2015 they had absolutely NO plans to be leading a NATO Battle group in Latvia. Canada is now leading a Brigade and I would bet we will be reconstituting the 4th Canadian Mechanized Infantry Brigade within two to three years. That BTW would take Canada's NATO direct obligations from about 500 troops in 2017 when my Son was part of the initial Latvian deployment to the now planned 2200 troops up to a 5600 Brigade. Beer and hotdogs right up to steak and Scotch. This time we WILL be paying for it.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Exactly what "strength" would Trudeau exhibit? Flowing words salads or a direct admonition to Trump ala Carol Parish style? Canada has been lucky to have been about 27th on the list of U.S. foreign policy concerns as for the most part we all get along. Trump however is a shit disturber and an agent of Chaos and he personally does not trust Trudeau. God knows what he could or would do. Justin should have listened to his Dad's speech from long ago. Living next to America is like sleeping with the Elephant and we are subjected to every grunt and twitch.

Pay the oilsands to stop producing oil which is easily shut of unlike most oil and gas prices would spike immediately in the US.

Given how we responded to a basically inconsequential relationship with India after they killed someone on our territory word salad might be the more likely outcome sure.

We got a good deal on NAFTA after all the bluster by imposing countervailing targeted sanctions. That's probably most effective policy but starting a full blown trade war with government funds to prop up the losers would be a winning strategy politically. Canadians are desperate for strength.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Pay the oilsands to stop producing oil which is easily shut of unlike most oil and gas prices would spike immediately in the US.

Given how we responded to a basically inconsequential relationship with India after they killed someone on our territory word salad might be the more likely outcome sure.

We got a good deal on NAFTA after all the bluster by imposing countervailing targeted sanctions. That's probably most effective policy but starting a full blown trade war with government funds to prop up the losers would be a winning strategy politically. Canadians are desperate for strength.

Better look into some of the provisions of the NAFTA agreement when it comes to energy, especially the renegotiated terms from Trumps time.
Mr Trudeau has diminished the real and perceived strength's of this Nation. He is not respected, nor should he be. That's why the Indians thought they could take out a Sikh activist. Clearly his Canadian citizenship meant nothing to the Indians. It was the Yanks that told us what happened btw and it was not until the Americans had the talk that Modi paid attention.

Canada will have to invest in real sustained capabilities to start to regain respect from our allies. It will take a decade or more to gain respect from our adversaries.

I wonder if the Yanks will ask/demand that we send troops to Haiti? Again. Real capabilities could attempt to calm that situation down but naah we are just Canadians .