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Posted Nov 28, 2022, 9:26 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: South Philly
Posts: 1,685
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Dug into the latest employment numbers a little to see how Philly is doing relative to other MSAs with >100k nonfarm jobs in the northeast. This time I wanted to look at where each MSA stood relative to the same month in 2019 to see how each MSA has recovered from the pandemic. So far Philly is the only large northeast city (>500k nonfarm jobs) to be above its October 2019 number, though Boston is just below. Even the regions around Philly seem to be doing relatively well with Allentown ranking #1, Harrisburg #3, Atlantic City #5, Trenton at #7, Philly at #8 overall, and York at #10. Reading however is still 4% below it's 2019 peak, however, and Pittsburgh is pretty disappointing as well for its size. Compared to three years ago, the Philly MSA has 38.9k more jobs than would be expected if growth was proportional across the set, which is the highest of any area, and it's relative weight in the set increased by 1.3%. Another fun fact in the unemployment report is that PA set a new all time low at 4.0% unemployment and was the only state in the country which had a statistically significant decrease in the unemployment rate last month. Generally good signs. Granted many other states do have a lower unemployment rate. Lot's of talk of a recession looming but our area seems to have some more momentum than the rest even still.
Rank . MSA | Oct-19 Total Nonfarm | Oct-22 Total Nonfarm | 3-yr Change| Oct-22 as % of Oct-19 Employment | % Change Relative Weight | Jobs vs Proportional Change
- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ | 384.9 | 394.9 | 10.0 | 102.6% | 3.9% | 14.9
- Portland-South Portland, ME NECTA | 215.6 | 220.3 | 4.7 | 102.2% | 3.5% | 7.4
- Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA | 354.3 | 361.7 | 7.4 | 102.1% | 3.4% | 11.9
- New Haven, CT NECTA | 298.6 | 303.0 | 4.4 | 101.5% | 2.8% | 8.2
- Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ | 134.5 | 135.8 | 1.3 | 101.0% | 2.3% | 3.0
- Salisbury, MD-DE | 164.0 | 165.3 | 1.3 | 100.8% | 2.1% | 3.4
- Trenton, NJ | 284.7 | 285.9 | 1.2 | 100.4% | 1.7% | 4.8
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 3,015.2 | 3,015.8 | 0.6 | 100.0% | 1.3% | 38.9
- Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH NECTA | 2,848.8 | 2,845.7 | -3.1 | 99.9% | 1.2% | 33.1
- York-Hanover, PA | 190.7 | 189.8 | -0.9 | 99.5% | 0.8% | 1.5
- Springfield, MA-CT NECTA | 344.6 | 342.1 | -2.5 | 99.3% | 0.6% | 1.9
- Providence-Warwick, RI-MA NECTA | 606.7 | 601.8 | -4.9 | 99.2% | 0.5% | 2.8
- Worcester, MA-CT NECTA | 292.8 | 290.4 | -2.4 | 99.2% | 0.5% | 1.3
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 1,438.5 | 1,424.5 | -14.0 | 99.0% | 0.3% | 4.3
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 3,373.3 | 3,336.9 | -36.4 | 98.9% | 0.2% | 6.4
- Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT NECTA | 409.2 | 402.8 | -6.4 | 98.4% | -0.3% | -1.2
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 10,057.5 | 9,896.9 | -160.6 | 98.4% | -0.3% | -32.9
- Lancaster, PA | 262.1 | 257.8 | -4.3 | 98.4% | -0.4% | -1.0
- Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV | 106.9 | 105.1 | -1.8 | 98.3% | -0.4% | -0.4
- Manchester, NH NECTA | 117.7 | 115.5 | -2.2 | 98.1% | -0.6% | -0.7
- Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA | 266.7 | 261.7 | -5.0 | 98.1% | -0.6% | -1.6
- Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT NECTA | 593.5 | 579.1 | -14.4 | 97.6% | -1.2% | -6.9
- Burlington-South Burlington, VT NECTA | 128.7 | 125.4 | -3.3 | 97.4% | -1.3% | -1.7
- Syracuse, NY | 323.6 | 314.9 | -8.7 | 97.3% | -1.4% | -4.6
- Erie, PA | 129.4 | 125.5 | -3.9 | 97.0% | -1.8% | -2.3
- Pittsburgh, PA | 1,205.2 | 1,164.9 | -40.3 | 96.7% | -2.1% | -25.0
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY | 479.2 | 461.5 | -17.7 | 96.3% | -2.5% | -11.6
- Barnstable Town, MA NECTA | 107.0 | 103.0 | -4.0 | 96.3% | -2.5% | -2.6
- Reading, PA | 182.6 | 175.3 | -7.3 | 96.0% | -2.8% | -5.0
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY | 569.3 | 546.5 | -22.8 | 96.0% | -2.8% | -15.6
- Binghamton, NY | 104.3 | 100.0 | -4.3 | 95.9% | -2.9% | -3.0
- Rochester, NY | 546.8 | 522.5 | -24.3 | 95.6% | -3.2% | -17.4
- Utica-Rome, NY | 130.1 | 123.7 | -6.4 | 95.1% | -3.7% | -4.7
- Norwich-New London-Westerly, CT-RI NECTA | 129.5 | 122.1 | -7.4 | 94.3% | -4.5% | -5.8
Looking closer at the Philly area specifically we find this:
Rank . MSA | Oct-19 Total Nonfarm | Oct-22 Total Nonfarm | 3-yr Change| Oct-22 as % of Oct-19 Employment | % Change Relative Weight | Jobs vs Proportional Change
- Camden, NJ Metropolitan Division | 547.9 | 576.2 | 28.3 | 105.2% | 5.1% | 28.2
- Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA Metropolitan Division | 1099.6 | 1,097.8 | -1.8 | 99.8% | -0.2% | -2.0
- Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ Metropolitan Division | 368.2 | 364.8 | -3.4 | 99.1% | -0.9% | -3.5
- Philadelphia City, PA | 754.2 | 740.5 | -13.7 | 98.2% | -1.8% | -13.9
- Delaware County, PA | 245.3 | 236.5 | -8.8 | 96.4% | -3.6% | -8.8
Basically, all of the employment growth in the Philly area in the last three years is in South Jersey. South Jersey has apparently added 28.3k jobs in the last three years. In fact, this makes the Camden metropolitan division the strongest growth area in the entire northeast, with it having actually increased nonfarm employment by 5.2% vs Oct 2019. Not what I'd expect but an interesting result. It's actually all apparently been in the last year. What's driving this?
Last edited by Urbanthusiat; Nov 29, 2022 at 6:19 AM.
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