Combined, Washington-Baltimore now outsizes Chicago as America’s 3rd largest CSA

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Nope, I'm pretty sure I have a good grasp on it:

The whole highway? Well, in this case 860k cars travel on Bandeirantes-Anhanguera system daily. São Paulo-Campinas is busier than New York-Philadelphia. Carriage capacity is larger as the commute flows.

[kittyhawk28]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Absolutely not lol.

There are 37 daily intercity bus pairs between LA and San Diego versus 54 daily intercity bus pairs between NY and Philly, according to Google search. So even if NY and Philly have more bus connections, I dont think see how this disparity blows LA/San Diego, or for that matter most other global cities, out of the water in terms of connectivity. For rail connections there's currently around ~30-50 daily train pairs between NY and Philly (eyeballing from Google seaches) versus ~20 (Amtrak only) - 25 (Amtrak + Metrolink -> Coaster), which while higher isn't by a vast margin. Not to mention the volume of intercity car travel between LA and San Diego is probably higher than NY and Philly.

[Yuri]

More to the point, according to the respective countries 2010 census, there are 26,000 commuters between Campinas and São Paulo urban areas as opposed to 1,500 between Philadelphia and New York City.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

There are 37 daily intercity bus pairs between LA and San Diego versus 54 daily intercity bus pairs between NY and Philly, according to Google search. So even if NY and Philly have more bus connections, I dont think see how this disparity blows LA/San Diego, or for that matter most other global cities, out of the water in terms of connectivity. For rail connections there's currently around ~30-50 daily train pairs between NY and Philly (eyeballing from Google seaches) versus ~20 (Amtrak only) - 25 (Amtrak + Metrolink -> Coaster), which while higher isn't by a vast margin. Not to mention the volume of intercity car travel between LA and San Diego is probably higher than NY and Philly.

New York and Philadelphia have two of the best transit systems in North America and they are 90 miles apart. There is no way that L.A. and San Diego even remotely compare in terms of non-private auto connectivity.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

More to the point, according to the respective countries 2010 census, there are 26,000 commuters between Campinas and São Paulo urban areas as opposed to 1,500 between Philadelphia and New York City.

I'm not sure what point you're making, but I remain unconvinced that it is easier to go between São Paulo and Campinas than it is to go between New York and Philadelphia. Happy to leave it there.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

There are 37 daily intercity bus pairs between LA and San Diego versus 54 daily intercity bus pairs between NY and Philly, according to Google search.

That's absolutely not true. Even NY-Lakewood has far more than 54 buses.

Looking at Google search, they aren't even tracking private lines. The service is overwhelmingly private lines. Intercity/commuter bus service in the tri-state is private, for-profit.

NY-Philly have extremely heavy bus service, every few minutes, by maybe a dozen private lines. LA-SD have minimal transit links. People don't ride the bus or rails in significant numbers in SoCal.

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

For rail connections there's currently around ~30-50 daily train pairs between NY and Philly (eyeballing from Google seaches) versus ~20 (Amtrak only) - 25 (Amtrak + Metrolink -> Coaster), which while higher isn't by a vast margin.

This is dumb. You're comparing Amtrak, which is not even 10% of the Penn Station ridership. The NY area has something like 20x the commuter rail numbers of SoCal. The NY-Trenton NJ Transit line has higher ridership than all the commuter rail lines in California, combined. In normal, non-pandemic times, that route alone has over 100 bilevel trains daily, and up to 12 cars in length. Obviously Acela and Septa would add significant numbers too.

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

Not to mention the volume of intercity car travel between LA and San Diego is probably higher than NY and Philly.

I'd bet no, as I-5 is four lanes in each direction for most of the route, and once you get around Camp Pendleton, there isn't much. But yeah, auto traffic would at least be comparable. I could see semi similar-numbers.

But comparing bus and rail is silly. LA-SD have almost no bus/rail service. The rail line is a single track, on the beach. There's no real commuting bus network, just the regular city buses. NY-Philly is one of the busiest bus and rail corridors on the planet.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm not sure what point you're making, but I remain unconvinced that it is easier to go between São Paulo and Campinas than it is to go between New York and Philadelphia. Happy to leave it there.

As you don’t elaborate what you mean by “easier”, it seems we should agree only because you say so.

São Paulo and Campinas are closer to each other, highways carriage bigger, and the number of people commuting between them is several times higher than between those two US metropolises. Those are all objective measurements, whereas your “easy” is entirely subjective.

And I’m talking SP-Campinas because I’m more familiar with and it’s easier to me to access data. I’m pretty sure, however, we can find other pairs of cities with more intense relation: Tokyo-Nagoya, Shanghai-Suzhou, Guangzhou-Shenzhen, Beijing-Tianjin, London-Birmingham, Manchester-Liverpool, Manchester-Leeds, Milan-Turin, Cologne-Düsseldorf, Amsterdam-Rotterdam.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

As you don’t elaborate what you mean by “easier”, it seems we should agree only because you say so.

São Paulo and Campinas are closer to each other, highways carriage bigger, and the number of people commuting between them is several times higher than between those two US metropolises. Those are all objective measurements, whereas your “easy” is entirely subjective.

And I’m talking SP-Campinas because I’m more familiar with and it’s easier to me to access data. I’m pretty sure, however, we can find other pairs of cities with more intense relation: Tokyo-Nagoya, Shanghai-Suzhou, Guangzhou-Shenzhen, Beijing-Tianjin, London-Birmingham, Manchester-Liverpool, Manchester-Leeds, Milan-Turin, Cologne-Düsseldorf, Amsterdam-Rotterdam.

None of these will have better connectivity than NY-Philadelphia. I've been to Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, England, and Brazil.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

None of these will have better connectivity than NY-Philadelphia. I've been to Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, England, and Brazil.

Again, you refuse to explain why the connectivity is better…

In any case, Anhanguera-Bandeirantes system carries way more cars than the NJ turnpike;

There are 6.5 million of vehicles in NJ+NYC+PHD as opposed to 18 million on São Paulo, Jundiaí and Campinas metro areas;

There are 26k people commuting between São Paulo and Campinas urban areas, 12.7k between São Paulo and Campinas city proper; only 1.5k Philadelphians work in NYC. All numbers from 2010 Census;

Today, after Covid, there are still 92 buses leaving Campinas to São Paulo on Monday, plus at least 19 private buses (it could be way more counting all shuttles). In 2019, it was probably over 200.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Again, you refuse to explain why the connectivity is better…

Because it's just better. Every thing that is true is not provable by Google.

[Crawford]

How does Sao Paulo have 3x the vehicles of the NY metro? That makes zero sense. And what does that have to do with the question? LA has more vehicles than Tokyo, but why would that make LA more connected to San Diego than Tokyo is to Yokohama? Just weird.

U.S. is easily the most auto-oriented major country on the planet, and normal middle class households almost all have 2 vehicles. And 3+ vehicles per household is common. Brazil is comparatively poor and most households have 0 or 1 vehicle.

NYC has a huge geography where vehicle ownership is low by Western first world standards, but that's nowhere near the majority of the tri-state, or the larger NY-Philly area. And even where auto ownership is low, it would be high by South American standards.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

How does Sao Paulo have 3x the vehicles of the NY metro? That makes zero sense. And what does that have to do with the question? LA has more vehicles than Tokyo, but why would that make LA more connected to San Diego than Tokyo is to Yokohama? Just weird.

That’s a weird question… Because it has… As Dec 2021, there are 31.5 million registered vehicles in São Paulo state, of which 18 million on São Paulo, Jundiaí, Campinas metro areas.

According to Google, there are 3.6 million in NJ, 1.95 million in NYC and 650k in Philadelphia.

Originally Posted by Crawford

U.S. is easily the most auto-oriented major country on the planet, and normal middle class households almost all have 2 vehicles. And 3+ vehicles per household is common. Brazil is comparatively poor and most households have 0 or 1 vehicle.

NYC has a huge geography where vehicle ownership is low by Western first world standards, but that's nowhere near the majority of the tri-state, or the larger NY-Philly area. And even where auto ownership is low, it would be high by South American standards.

São Paulo state is not the same as Brazil, and despite the 8 year-long economic malaise, Brazil still gains 1.5 million cars every year (peaked at 3.5 million in the early 2010’s). Cars are no longer a luxury for middle income countries, specially for a car-obsessed one, like Brazil.

But get to the point, Campinas has one of the highest share of car ownership in the country and it’s any absurdly autocentric metro area, chopped out by several highways in every direction. It’s the 2nd transportation hub in Brazil behind São Paulo only.

And cars will provide the connectivity between Campinas and São Paulo, and numbers suggest it’s way more common (or “easier”) to get between the two cities than between New York and Philadelphia.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

That’s a weird question… Because it has… As Dec 2021, there are 31.5 million registered vehicles in São Paulo state, of which 18 million on São Paulo, Jundiaí, Campinas metro areas.

According to Google, there are 3.6 million in NJ, 1.95 million in NYC and 650k in Philadelphia.

This is a disingenuous comparison and you are well aware of that. Please don't do this.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

This is a disingenuous comparison and you are well aware of that. Please don't do this.

iheartthed, you cannot speak of disingenuous as you’re here saying New York and Philadelphia have better connections than every pair of cities in the world without showing why.

I threw tons of different data suggesting other connections could be stronger or “easier”.

But let’s focus on the “easy”. I leave my apartment, two minutes walk till the subway (US$ 0.90), wait few seconds for my train, 8 min hide to Tietê Bus Station and pick one of the buses that leave every 10 min (US$ 7). 1:15 till Campinas Bus Station.

Or, walk four blocks to the Hertz, rent a good car (US$ 20) and 1:00 till Central Campinas.

So please, show me why that’s more difficult than a random person leaving it’s house in some Philadelphia neighborhood and finding their way to NYC?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

iheartthed, you cannot speak of disingenuous as you’re here saying New York and Philadelphia have better connections than every pair of cities in the world without showing why.

I threw tons of different data suggesting other connections could be stronger or “easier”.

But let’s focus on the “easy”. I leave my apartment, two minutes walk till the subway, wait few seconds for my train, 8 min hide to Tietê Bus Station and pick one of the buses that leave every 10 min. 1:15 till Campinas Bus Station.

Or, walk four blocks to the Hertz, rent a car and 1:00 till Downtown Campinas.

So please, show me why that’s more difficult than a random person leaving it’s house in some Philadelphia neighborhood and finding their way to NYC?

I really don't care to belabor this point anymore. There are at least four pages of examples in this thread about how to travel between New York and Philadelphia, including by people who make the commute several times per week. If you haven't understood it by now then it is beyond me.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I really don't care to belabor this point anymore. There are at least four pages of examples in this thread about how to travel between New York and Philadelphia, including by people who make the commute several times per week. If you haven't understood it by now then it is beyond me.

No one arguing it’s difficult to go from Philly to NYC. Not only me, but other forumers showed examples (like LA-SD) where commute it’s equally or even easier and more abundant.

You say I’m ignoring the 1,500 people that commute from Philadelphia to NYC. What about the 26,000 that do it between SP and Campinas areas? They provide no indication that connection between those two metro areas are fairly easy?

And we didn’t even touch China, where Shanghai (27 million inh.) and Suzhou (8 million inh.) are connected by transit. Imagine how many people commute between them?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

No one arguing it’s difficult to go from Philly to NYC. Not only me, but other forumers showed examples (like LA-SD) where commute it’s equally or even easier and more abundant.

You say I’m ignoring the 1,500 people that commute from Philadelphia to NYC. What about the 26,000 that do it between SP and Campinas areas? They provide no indication that connection between those two metro areas are fairly easy?

And we didn’t even touch China, where Shanghai (27 million inh.) and Suzhou (8 million inh.) are connected by transit. Imagine how many people commute between them?

There is no reliable data on how many people travel between NYC and Philadelphia on a daily basis because it is next to impossible to track. There isn't even any good source that counts the number of seats traveling between the two cities on a daily basis. The number of buses running daily between the two cities is well into the 100s. Using Amtrak or NJ Transit + SEPTA, there are around 50 or 60 trains per day between NYC and Philadelphia. At a minimum you're talking about 25,000 - 30,000 seats on bus or rail transit between Philadelphia and New York on a daily basis.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by Yuri

You say I’m ignoring the 1,500 people that commute from Philadelphia to NYC.

I believe that figure was by bus only and it's definitely more than that if all nodes are taken into consideration and since the pandemic, as we have had an influx of NYCers who still have their work connections in NYC...so factor them in plus the Philadelphians who are also working in NYC...

[Yuri]

The number of people who commute from Philadelphia to New York was provided by the US Census, which has the best tracks on this regard. In fact, they organize MSAs and CSAs based on it. It’s not like they made things up.

Brazilian numbers were also provided by the 2010 Census and we can cross data for any given Brazilian municipality or a group of them (“populational arrangements”, aka metro areas).

If US Census Bureau, for some reason, undercounts NYC-PHD commute rates. IBGE could have done the same for Campinas-São Paulo.

There are 1.6 million people in Philadelphia, a very urban place for US standards and which is itself a major labour market. Given NYC is 150 km away, I fail to see how way more than 1,500 Philadelphians go to work in NYC (and let’s assume 500 New Yorkers do the opposite to the grand total of 2,000).

[Yuri]

I decided to learn more about Shanghai and Suzhou, which are 110km apart. There are 233 trains daily (!!!) between them completing the journey in less than 30 minutes.

That’s 160,000 seats by train alone. No way New York-Philadelphia get any close to that.