Calgary Federal Politics

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Elbownian

Victoria is looking pretty attractive to me at the moment though....

Even IOL left the core!

[MalcolmTucker]

Originally Posted by suburbia

I agree. The voter turn-out, as speculated, has been particularly low. We've always had circumstantial evidence that renters care less about the areas they live in, and I think the turn-out gives this all the more credence.



You get what you vote for. A vote for green was in actuality a vote for the cons.

Renters are much less likely to be on the voters list. When you think you're not on the list, turn out drops. Even for people who have the documents needed to register at the polls, which for many renters is very few (no paper bills, drivers license at the parents, the only option is your lease), drives turnout even lower than lets say first time buyers.

If you were able to build a perfect list, turn out normalizes if I recall a paper I read years ago on the subject. It is just pretty impossible to build such a list.

[MarkL]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Chris "Ralph Nader" Turner has conceded, and with a majority of polls now already reporting, looks like Locke will soon be doing the same. I'm amazed at how little even the so-called educated electorate understands real politik. Turner had very little chance to win this, as at his peak of momentum he only got to 25%. I had explained using pretty basic logic that his upside was very slim from that point, and as a result while it "looked" like a three-way race, only two individuals had any realistic chance of winning. Crockatt and Locke. If you wanted a more progressive MP, IE one that was not a public supporter of the Wild Rose Party, you had to vote for Locke (even if he wasn't your first choice). The CBC report made this explicitly clear also.

You are assuming that those of us who voted for Chris Turner don't understand the "Realpolitik" (one word, FYI). Perhaps the functional difference of having Joan Crockett in Ottawa vs. Harvey Locke was not great enough to overcome the gag reflex elicited from putting an X next to the Liberal logo? Or pick any number of other reasons not to vote strategically; ignorance is just one.

[artvandelay]

One would think that low turnout would be beneficial to the progressives, no?

A couple of my friends decided not to vote due to the poor quality of the Tory candidate, and I suspect a few other typical Conservative voters switched over to thee Greens as a protest. Seems like a missed opportunity.

[artvandelay]

The race in Victoria is a real nail biter (Greens leading by 139 votes but it's been flip flopping all night). It's the battle of the parties with banana republic economic policies!

Go Green go!

[MalcolmTucker]

If polls are to be believed, either half the polled NDP vote swung to Green (which likely means the Greens had a hell of a vote ID system) or the NDP still can't motivate a team to do a full get out the vote on election day which depressed NDP turnout.

[Dado]

Originally Posted by suburbia

You get what you vote for. A vote for green was in actuality a vote for the cons.

That's an absurd enough argument in a general election, but at least there is some uncertainty as to the overall (i.e. nationwide) results to lend the idea a modicum of credibility. (I'll note in passing that the only people I ever hear making this argument are Liberal supporters. Back in the day Reformers and PCs never went around making this kind of argument.)

But in a byelection such as this? Electing one more or one fewer Conservative will not make a whiff of difference since their majority is not at risk. In that case you might as well vote your conscience and send a message to all the parties.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

If polls are to be believed, either half the polled NDP vote swung to Green (which likely means the Greens had a hell of a vote ID system) or the NDP still can't motivate a team to do a full get out the vote on election day which depressed NDP turnout.

In Calgary one poll had the NDP at 4%, and that's what they're going to get.

[MasterG]

Originally Posted by Dado

That's an absurd enough argument in a general election, but at least there is some uncertainty as to the overall (i.e. nationwide) results to lend the idea a modicum of credibility. (I'll note in passing that the only people I ever hear making this argument are Liberal supporters. Back in the day Reformers and PCs never went around making this kind of argument.)

But in a byelection such as this? Electing one more or one fewer Conservative will not make a whiff of difference since their majority is not at risk. In that case you might as well vote your conscience and send a message to all the parties.

The only thing that would have been accomplished with a non-conservative win tonight was that the conservatives would have given us a bunch of attention and funding during the next election cycle to try to win it back. That would have been pretty sweet.

Rec centre funding anyone? We would better off even if we still voted 100% conservative, if the city didnt have Harper and his buddies all based here. They go so far out of the way not to 1. cross Harper, and 2. Not look like they are favouring their own ridings. So pull the rec centre funding and no one will say anything.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Boris2k7

Hahahahahahahahaha...



That's a good one.

How so? All the opposition parties pushed for more stimulus and complained over the modest cutbacks proposed by the Conservatives. No one will ever convice me that a larger federal government would be anything but bad news for Calgary given its current demographics and economic mix.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by Reesonov

Pathetic result. Despite all of the changes, all of the promise, and all of the hope, Calgary can still be so disappointing.

...or maybe Calgary is just self interested like everywhere else.

[artvandelay]

Originally Posted by MasterG

The only thing that would have been accomplished with a non-conservative win tonight was that the conservatives would have given us a bunch of attention and funding during the next election cycle to try to win it back. That would have been pretty sweet.

Rec centre funding anyone? We would better off even if we still voted 100% conservative, if the city didnt have Harper and his buddies all based here. They go so far out of the way not to 1. cross Harper, and 2. Not look like they are favouring their own ridings. So pull the rec centre funding and no one will say anything.

Attention yes - part of me wanted to see a Conservative defeat because I think they would come back with a far superior candidate for the next general election. But I highly doubt we would receive any additional funding. Other than a few missteps (cough...G20...cough), this government has been quite equitable with the distribution of infrastructure funds across the country.

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker

Renters are much less likely to be on the voters list. When you think you're not on the list, turn out drops. Even for people who have the documents needed to register at the polls, which for many renters is very few (no paper bills, drivers license at the parents, the only option is your lease), drives turnout even lower than lets say first time buyers.

If you were able to build a perfect list, turn out normalizes if I recall a paper I read years ago on the subject. It is just pretty impossible to build such a list.

Renters are also more likely to be poorer and younger. Neither of which correlates well with high turn out. People who are marginalized tend to be less engaged in the political process. Renters are generally more marginalized in a whole host of ways. They are typically more distant from systems of power; their social circles rarely include prospective political candidates or donors.

You know suburbia, I'm disappointed by low turn out too but way to be a dick about it.

[Allan83]

Originally Posted by Reesonov

Pathetic result. Despite all of the changes, all of the promise, and all of the hope, Calgary can still be so disappointing.

I think you should be talking to David McGuinty about why the Liberals lost. Looking at the turnout numbers I would say that a lot of people who would have voted Liberal decided to stay home.

[Allan83]

Originally Posted by MasterG

The only thing that would have been accomplished with a non-conservative win tonight was that the conservatives would have given us a bunch of attention and funding during the next election cycle to try to win it back. That would have been pretty sweet.

Rec centre funding anyone? We would better off even if we still voted 100% conservative, if the city didnt have Harper and his buddies all based here. They go so far out of the way not to 1. cross Harper, and 2. Not look like they are favouring their own ridings. So pull the rec centre funding and no one will say anything.

If they’re smart they should pay attention anyway. This election wasn’t going to change the balance of power. It was about sending a message, and given that Crockatt’s vote fell to 37%, that should send a message. Hopefully it will give Harper the leverage to get rid of the extreme right wing fringe, like Anders and Crockatt, and move towards becoming more PC.

There should be messages here for the other parties as well. The Liberals can win in the west, but they have to develop a national perspective, and they have to get rid of their own narrow extremists like David McGuinty.

The Greens I think are held back by Elizabeth May, but I’m not sure that message was clearly sent by this by-election.

For the NDP Mulcair is a disaster. He is rapidly tearing down what Happy Jack built up. They barely got 1,000 votes total in Calgary Centre, and their vote dropped way off in Victoria as well.

[artvandelay]

Congrats to Harvey, he now holds the record for best performance in Calgary by a Liberal since 1968, narrowly beating Bev Longstaff's 1997 showing in Centre by 0.1%.

A moral victory of sorts for you Liberal types!

[The Chemist]

Yippee. Another crappy MP to join Calgary's collection of them.

Perhaps if people in Calgary would stop blindly voting for even the crappiest of candidates that happen to wear a CPC logo (I'm looking at you Calgary West in particular) the city might actually get some decent representation.

[Rusty van Reddick]

Joan's 36.9% total was less than Eric Lowther got in his loss to Joe Clark in 2000. Worst showing by the most right-wing party (whatever its called) in the riding's history.

Chris or Harvey winning would have been moral victories by a candidate with a small plurality of votes. This was a moral victory that saw a massive- and don't be fooled, it was massive, humiliatingly massive- drop in Conservative support in this riding, from 58% barely a year ago to 37% last night.

[Calgarian]

disappointed that the Cons won, but this did send a huge message.

[fusili]

Well, it's all said and done now. I think all groups fought hard and ran good campaigns and all should be respected for that. Unfortunately, we have a candidate that I do not think is a good representative for the riding.

This election does demonstrate how much "vote-splitting" needs to be addressed. While I prefer a mixed member proportional system, I do agree with Malcolm that something like a Instant Runoff Vote is a good idea. The question is, why didn't the Liberal Party do anything about First Past the Post when they had massive majorities in the 90s? The other issue is the question of whether the left can really unite. I, for instance, would vote Conservative over NDP (holding my nose the entire time), and I am not alone.

The one thing that really upset me in the race is the horrible vitriol that was directed at the Turner campaign (which I was deeply involved with) and the Greens in general from the Liberal Party in particular. The level of condescension and anger directed at Turner supporters was pretty off-putting.

What I think the Federal Liberal Party in Alberta needs to understand is that they are not entitled to the "progressive vote" here. In order to gain people's support, they need to speak to your values and respect their thoughts. Calling people "dirty hippies" or "Tory hipsters" doesn't bring people to your cause. Imagine if Stephan Harper and Peter Mackay used such language against each other when trying to merge the Alliance and PCs.

In the end, it was a very interesting time in Calgary's federal political history.