Who is building the most in North America?

[ue]

I know that Commerce Court South proposal has an observation deck proposed (cool), but it would be really neat to have a public observatory in one of these very tall buildings going up in either College Park or Yorkville. Aside from douchey lounges in Yorkville, you can't really access views of Toronto that show the layers of the skyline as much, because the skyline is oriented along the Yonge corridor most strongly. So views from the lake, the most common angle, miss that. The CN Tower is great but misses the most iconic building in the city because you're inside of it (why Top of the Rock is better than ESB in NYC).

[C.]

Originally Posted by ue

The CN Tower is great but misses the most iconic building in the city because you're inside of it (why Top of the Rock is better than ESB in NYC).

That's so true!

[BnaBreaker]

Those Toronto diagrams are as awesome as they are dumbfounding... it is basically set to add the equivalent of Los Angeles skyline and the Philadelphia skyline (and probably more) to it's existing skyline in the coming years. Just astounding numbers.

While it pales in comparison to the Toronto numbers, Nashville has approximately 50 towers of 300 feet or more either U/C, approved, or proposed at the moment... I imagine that has got to be up there a ways, no? And before you ask, no, most of them are not hotels.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by BnaBreaker

While it pales in comparison to the Toronto numbers, Nashville has approximately 50 towers of 300 feet or more either U/C, approved, or proposed at the moment... I imagine that has got to be up there a ways, no? And before you ask, no, most of them are not hotels.

Oh absolutely... If we were to make a list of north american metros >1M populaiton ordered by new square footage/population, Nashville would certainly be in the top 5, if not the top.

[C.]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

Oh absolutely... If we were to make a list of north american metros >1M populaiton ordered by new square footage/population, Nashville would certainly be in the top 5, if not the top.

You can do it on a per capita basis.

City...Housing Starts 2020...Per 100,000 people

Jersey City...4,766...1,814.5
Toronto...22,000...750.9
Nashville...2,431...351.1
New York...30,000...340.9
Dallas...1,050...78.9

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by C.

You can do it on a per capita basis.

City...Housing Starts 2020...Per 100,000 people

Jersey City...4,766...1,814.5
Toronto...22,000...750.9
Nashville...2,431...351.1
New York...30,000...340.9
Dallas...1,050...78.9

What about cities like Burnaby, Surrey, Brampton, Vaughan? Like Jersey City they get a lot of spill over construction due to being adjacent to a much bigger city.

[C.]

Originally Posted by isaidso

What about cities like Burnaby, Surrey, Brampton, Vaughan? Like Jersey City they get a lot of spill over construction due to being adjacent to a much bigger city.

Post the numbers then.

[C.]

City...Housing Starts 2020...Per 100,000 people

Jersey City...4,766...1,814.5
Oakville, ON...2,645... 1,364.6
Toronto, ON...22,000...750.9
Vaughan (Richmond Hill/King City), ON...3,484... 685.5
Milton+Halton Hills, ON...912... 532.4
Markham,ON...1,577... 479.4
Brampton, ON...2,425... 408.5
Nashville...2,431...351.1
New York...30,000...340.9
Mississauga,ON...1,777...246.3
Dallas...1,050...78.9

Well this won't work... haha. It's too skewed towards smaller cities that are growing quickly. Still very impressive numbers out of the Toronto metro area.

[dc_denizen]

Toronto is going the direction of a Dubai of North America, offering safe haven real estate to multinational investors, this is really nothing new.

What city is proposing the most multifamily buildings? There always seems to be an inconsistency between the numbers for say New York/ toronto/ Austin etc, and places like Dallas which never rank high on emporis lists, but nonetheless add the largest amount of large multifamily properties annually in the US.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Toronto is going the direction of a Dubai of North America, offering safe haven real estate to multinational investors, this is really nothing new.

The data from the past decade is pretty clear that the vast majority of Toronto construction is due to real population growth. These new residential units aren't sitting empty like you're contending. They have people living in them. Most of the criticism is that the development industry isn't building enough to satisfy demand; especially affordable housing. And most of the new office developments have lead tenants. They're not being built on speculation.

Toronto builds alot because its absolute population growth is extremely high. In the year before COVID, it added more people than any other city in the western world. More than Dallas, more than Melbourne, and more than London. That's going to fuel alot of demand for housing, office, institutional, and retail. Chalking it all up to multinational investors? If that's what you want to believe that's your prerogative but it misses the mark entirely.

The big question mark is whether growth will pick up where it left off when the pandemic is fully behind us. Time will tell.

[nito]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Toronto builds alot because its absolute population growth is extremely high. In the year before COVID, it added more people than any other city in the western world. More than Dallas, more than Melbourne, and more than London. That's going to fuel alot of demand for housing, office, institutional, and retail. Chalking it all up to multinational investors? If that's what you want to believe that's your prerogative but it misses the mark entirely.

The last year before Covid-19 must have been a big outlier relative to all previous years this century. Based on historic data that I compiled a while ago, between 2001-2018, Toronto expanded by 0.5mn, relative to 1.5mn for London. Melbourne is a slightly different conversation due the size of the area, but it grew by 1.6mn, which would still be above the equally broad GTHA area (1.5mn). I’m not sure about Dallas or NYC.


Two pertinent point to the conversation – which are relevant to most cities in the western world – is not the actual volume of new units, but what the composition of those units are, and the level of affordability. Constructing a spate of one-bedroom units when the demand is for multiple-bedroom units, and at prices detached from reality compounds the housing crisis, erodes confidence in capitalism, and generates completely unnecessary economic and social strife that undermines the efficiency of most major global economies.

[Northern Light]

Originally Posted by nito

The last year before Covid-19 must have been a big outlier relative to all previous years this century. Based on historic data that I compiled a while ago, between 2001-2018, Toronto expanded by 0.5mn, relative to 1.5mn for London. Melbourne is a slightly different conversation due the size of the area, but it grew by 1.6mn, which would still be above the equally broad GTHA area (1.5mn). I’m not sure about Dallas or NYC.

Your numbers for the City proper are roughly accurate.

The City of Toronto was just a hair under 2.5M in 2001, when the new census data is out, it will be expected to be ~3M or just a fraction higher.

However, its worth say, that the pace has quickened considerably in the last few years (pre-Covid) with annual growth in the 75,000 range.

Your GTA numbers would also be pretty close at ~1.5M

Of course, if measuring the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), which is roughly the commuter-shed of Toronto, you get growth of between 2.5M-3M over the period 2001-2021. (we'll have to await the exact census numbers. But the GGH was listed as 7.5M in 2001 and was listed at 10.1M in 2019 by Hemson Consulting working for the Province of Ontario.

https://www.hemson.com/wp-content/up...rt-26Aug20.pdf

I won't comment on growth elsewhere, as I haven't studied those numbers.

****

If you read growth as a percent of base population though, the GGH has grown roughly by 40% over 20 years

The City of Toronto by about 20% in the same time period. But something like 9% is in the last 5 years.

[nito]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

Of course, if measuring the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), which is roughly the commuter-shed of Toronto, you get growth of between 2.5M-3M over the period 2001-2021. (we'll have to await the exact census numbers. But the GGH was listed as 7.5M in 2001 and was listed at 10.1M in 2019 by Hemson Consulting working for the Province of Ontario.

https://www.hemson.com/wp-content/up...rt-26Aug20.pdf

It could be construed as disingenuous to bring up the GGH in the conversation around city construction, when the GGH covers a very large area (20x that of London) covering areas with very little infrastructure or connective interaction to Toronto. There is little to dispute about the growth of Toronto and other parts of Canada, but it is far from alone in experiencing strong growth.

More important to the conversation is how much new or poorly allocated new housing is being delivered relative to population growth in cities.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

Toronto is going the direction of a Dubai of North America, offering safe haven real estate to multinational investors, this is really nothing new.

What city is proposing the most multifamily buildings? There always seems to be an inconsistency between the numbers for say New York/ toronto/ Austin etc, and places like Dallas which never rank high on emporis lists, but nonetheless add the largest amount of large multifamily properties annually in the US.

Foreign buyers represent 5% to 10% in the Toronto market with the vast majority being Canadian who are buying property.

If a multinational wants to store money away it makes much more sense to invest in US properties, it's cheaper and doesn't have all the foreign regulations like land transfer taxes, foreign buyer taxes and AirBNB isn't as regulated as in Vancouver or Toronto has.

Foreign investment of any type is easier in the US than Canada do to less regulations in the US and less taxes

[memph]

Originally Posted by Nite

Foreign buyers represent 5% to 10% in the Toronto market with the vast majority being Canadian who are buying property.

If a multinational wants to store money away it makes much more sense to invest in US properties, it's cheaper and doesn't have all the foreign regulations like land transfer taxes, foreign buyer taxes and AirBNB isn't as regulated as in Vancouver or Toronto has.

Foreign investment of any type is easier in the US than Canada do to less regulations in the US and less taxes

It's not so much multinationals as it is Chinese elite looking for a safe place to invest, because they don't have any safe places to invest domestically. The Chinese stock market is unreliable, and the Chinese real estate is even more inflated than Canada's. Not to mention you can't really buy real estate in China, it's more like a long term lease from the state.

Also, is it 5-10% of current homes owned by foreign buyers? 5-10% of new home sales? 5-10% of new capital flowing into the real estate market? Either way though, 5-10% is not that small and can have a significant influence if those buyers lack restraint in terms of how much they're willing to pay to get a foot in the Canadian real estate market.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by memph

It's not so much multinationals as it is Chinese elite looking for a safe place to invest, because they don't have any safe places to invest domestically. The Chinese stock market is unreliable, and the Chinese real estate is even more inflated than Canada's. Not to mention you can't really buy real estate in China, it's more like a long term lease from the state.

Also, is it 5-10% of current homes owned by foreign buyers? 5-10% of new home sales? 5-10% of new capital flowing into the real estate market? Either way though, 5-10% is not that small and can have a significant influence if those buyers lack restraint in terms of how much they're willing to pay to get a foot in the Canadian real estate market.

My point is that the US has more advantages for Chinese buyers, less taxes to pay when purchasing and more freedom to generate rents/revenue. So if this is the gold of Chinese investors, the US will have more of them than Canada especially Toronto and Vancouver which have more restrictions on buying and using property than the rest of Canada.

[memph]

Originally Posted by Nite

My point is that the US has more advantages for Chinese buyers, less taxes to pay when purchasing and more freedom to generate rents/revenue. So if this is the gold of Chinese investors, the US will have more of them than Canada especially Toronto and Vancouver which have more restrictions on buying and using property than the rest of Canada.

Canada's immigrant investor program was much bigger than the US's in per capita terms while it was running. Although that program has been terminated, the 15 years of rising real estate prices that it contributed to could have helped build the perception of Canada being a better investment destination than the US (which experienced the 2008 housing crash), so that Chinese investors are interested in continuing to invest without being able to immigrate. For example, they may send their kids to university in Canada and buy them condos to live in.

I agree that low interest rates, rapid population growth, and high land values (due to Greenbelt, congestion, and lots of downtown jobs), as well as higher construction costs are also factors that are causing Toronto's real estate to be more expensive than in most American cities.

[isaidso]

I went to the SSP database to look at how many 100m+ buildings were Built or Under Construction in the 2 fastest building places in Canada and the US since 2000. I used the 100m benchmark (often used globally) rather than the 150m preferred by Americans. 100m is a better benchmark imo. A 100-150m building may not be the first thing one notices in a skyline but it definitely has an impact. It roughly translates to a 32-35 floor building. I first listed by City Proper and then listed by Metropolitan Area. I think I got it roughly correct. This is what it spat out.


100m+ Buildings Built + U/C since 2000

City of New York: 350
City of Toronto: 337
City of Miami: 116
City of Vancouver: 48

Toronto CMA: 407
New York MSA: 393
Miami MSA: 162
Vancouver CMA: 124


Toronto CMA: Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan, Markham
Miami MSA: Miami, Sunny Isles, Ft. Lauderdale, Hallandale Beach, Hollywood, Miami Beach, Riviera Beach, Aventura, Bal Harbour, Sunrise, West Palm Beach
New York MSA: New York, Fort Lee, Guttenberg, Jersey City, New Rochelle, Newark, North Bergen, West New York, Franklin Township, White Plains
Vancouver CMA: Vancouver, Surrey, Burnaby, Coquitlam, New Westminster

[dc_denizen]

I'm not saying these units are vacant , far from it.

Let's say a typical investor (international or domestic) buys a unit in a new highrise condo in downtown Vaughn, then immediately turns around and rents it out. It seems that investors these days are even willing to accept negative rental cash flows

absent the investor demand, pushing up the $/sq foot valuation, that 40 story tower would be much harder to finance, and you might be forced to build a cheaper/smaller unit (eg woodframe or multiple smaller highrise/midrise) instead.

[memph]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

I'm not saying these units are vacant , far from it.

Let's say a typical investor (international or domestic) buys a unit in a new highrise condo in downtown Vaughn, then immediately turns around and rents it out. It seems that investors these days are even willing to accept negative rental cash flows

absent the investor demand, pushing up the $/sq foot valuation, that 40 story tower would be much harder to finance, and you might be forced to build a cheaper/smaller unit (eg woodframe or multiple smaller highrise/midrise) instead.

Yeah, well in Chinese real estate I think rental cash flows aren't even close to positive, so I guess it makes sense that Toronto can build expensive condos with relatively low rents (compared to cost to buy). You might get $2000 in rent but $600 in condo fees leaves you with only $1400/month to pay off a $600,000 condo.