Yes, estimates are going to be just that but I agree with some others that say CC and a few spots may be propping up a lot. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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Originally Posted by chimpskibot
I highly doubt Philly has lost population two years in a row unless there has been a massive shift in HH size. And although HH size has been trending down since the 60's, Philly now has more HH than ever. There would also be a lot of housing pressure alleviated if so many people were moving out that just isn't showing up in the current rent or for sale market.
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown
It's nearly inconceivable to me that the city lost population when there are something like 26,000 units under construction.
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Or is it that people like new construction and/or want to be in desirable and up and coming areas? I would not use this as a reliable gauge in an old city.
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Originally Posted by summersm343
Everyone says: “people moving out of the city…” where are they moving to? Seriously… the housing market is SUPER tight right now. There’s almost no houses on the market for sale. Where would people go? We know apartments are somewhere around 95-96% occupied in the city. People can’t move whom own a home without selling it or renting it out…. Soooo. What’s the explanation for Philadelphia losing population? I guess you can say the people come in and replacing residents that are leaving are less per housing unit? Like a young couple replacing a family of 3 or 4? Maybe… but I just don’t see how that would be happening on such a large scale to offset the influx of people buying and renting all of these new units to such a large extent.
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What is your definition of almost no houses for sale? Pushing 20K units for sale in the city and surrounding area when I looked into it recently (only on the PA side) with over half of that for sale in Philly alone, it has shifted to a buyer's market in the city, and sale prices are down. Is this a sign of a population shift or just normal for the market right now? I won't say either way just yet but it does raise an eyebrow when compared to surrounding markets and the trend up until now.
For the metro as a whole it's more of an affordable housing and/or housing in desirable areas situation vs no supply at all. And the 2020-current Philly is not like the one prior and PA is losing population so it could go either way.