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Posted Mar 20, 2023, 4:41 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 6,459
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Even before the pandemic, I don't believe dtla's office space over the past 30 yrs has ever enjoyed a single digit vacancy rate. I know at least about 5 to 10 yrs ago, among major mkts in the US, dtla's occupancy rate was similar to the nation's post pandemic rate of today. Since psf rental rates are higher for commercial than residential, office towers are known to generate more return for an owner than apts or condos do. Keep that in mind when wondering why devlpt in dtla has been at the pace it has been & why a proj may be value engineered or not designed to be taller.
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Last month, Brookfield DTLA said it defaulted on loans tied to that building and another 52-story property, the Gas Company Tower about a half-mile away. Those defaults could signal pain to come for the 69-million-square-foot downtown L.A. office market, the largest concentration of that property type in the second-biggest U.S. city.
The fallout is arriving three years after the start of the pandemic, which resulted in millions of people working from home and reduced office demand across the United States. Los Angeles is illustrative of the disruption in many major cities, with the average price per square foot for the city's downtown offices rated four or five stars so far in the first quarter at $242, according to CoStar data, less than half the $523 of three years earlier.
"It's an interesting time," said Dave Wald, president of real estate firm Wald Realty Advisors in Los Angeles, "unless you're an investor, lender or sponsor of an office building. Then it's probably horrific."
To be clear, not every office building will run into issues in downtown Los Angeles. That's especially true for newer buildings and those with amenities and space that tenants desire, including gyms, outdoor meeting spots, indoor air quality monitoring systems and rooftop decks. Shifting preferences in downtown L.A. also may create opportunities for other types of uses, such as residential.
KBS has been trying for months to sell its 40-story, roughly 701,000-square-foot Union Bank Plaza office tower at 445 S. Figueroa St. near downtown's financial district neighborhood. Real estate analysts have been tracking the deal to get a read on the health of downtown L.A.'s office market, and its potential sale may help set the value of other downtown office buildings looking to be sold.
So far, the negotiations haven't been promising. KBS has been in talks, and extending those conversations, to close a sale to New York-based private equity firm Waterbridge Capital since July 2022, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As recently as March 9, the seller gave the buyer another week-long extension with no end to the negotiations in sight.
Union Bank Plaza joins a number of high-profile office sales that have yet to close in downtown Los Angeles from the 62-story Aon Center, downtown's third-tallest building, to the historic 464,000-square-foot PacMutual, a three-building property with its earliest construction dating back to 1908.
Downtown office properties hitting the market come at a time of weakening investor demand. Since March 2020, five properties with more than 100,000 square feet of office space have sold in downtown Los Angeles, according to CoStar data, down from the 11 traded in the prior three years.
The sluggish sales come as downtown office vacancy has risen to 18.7%, the highest level CoStar has recorded. That said, the market was hurting long before the pandemic with high vacancies and less-than-robust leasing activity.
Downtown L.A.'s vacancy is higher than the New York office market's average vacancy of 12.8%, Chicago's average of 15.6% and San Francisco's average of 17.2%. Overall, the average office market vacancy in Los Angeles is 15.1%. The U.S. office vacancy rate is 12.9%, higher than 9.5% at the end of 2019 and the completion of the last full quarter before the pandemic.
Those higher vacancy rates are even hitting traditionally desirable, high-end buildings. The 777 Tower, with a marble-clad lobby and 30-foot ceilings, for instance, was designed by Cesar Pelli & Associates and is located near a mall and a Metro stop in the downtown’s financial district. CoStar Group is a tenant in 777 Tower.
Sean Fulp isn't surprised at what's going on with downtown Los Angeles office buildings. The vice chair and head of Southwest office capital markets for Colliers has seen the downtown office market struggle through down economic cycles. Fulp said there haven't been too many winners on bets made on downtown office buildings over the years, and history is repeating itself again in recent months after working from home cut demand for office space.
On the other side of the equation, tenants have to ask themselves if it's worth inking a low-price deal in a distressed building downtown. Tenants have many office options across greater L.A., including potentially buying buildings. Plus, tenants don't want to get stuck in a situation where they're one of a few companies left in an empty office.
"You don't want to be in that building," Wald said. "It's creepy."
Ultimately, real estate analysts said that office vacancy downtown has some positive aspects. Vacancy may lure a company that wants to create an urban headquarters in Los Angeles, or some distressed offices may be converted into much-needed housing. Other vacant offices could become future educational campuses and healthcare centers.
Jessica Lall, the managing director of CBRE that oversees downtown L.A.'s office, said downtown office space is experiencing a variety of issues right now, causing distress. But before the pandemic, downtown Los Angeles was transforming from a 9-to-5 office market into a place where people wanted to live, work and play.
New restaurants were opening, while apartment towers were being built and leased, leading to a surge of new residents downtown. Los Angeles' downtown population continues to grow, from 78,000 in 2020 to roughly 90,000 now, according to a statement by the Downtown Center Business Improvement District.
Lall said she's optimistic about downtown L.A.'s future. Improvements are on the way to downtown's transportation systems in coming years, including a regional connector project and new stops on L.A. Metro. Plus, downtown will play a role in hosting World Cup soccer matches in 2026 and the Olympics in 2028.
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Meanwhile, this devlpt on the former site of the bofa computer ctr bldg has recently completed work. It's another fauxtilian delight...I don't know why the owner, gh palmer, insists that all his bldgs be clones of one another. But, hey, dtla at least has a new decorative fountain! And with all the vacant office space on one side of dt, it's nice knowing that at least there are ppl living in apts on the other side. Plus things like palm trees & swimming pools aren't too common in various other American urban centers.
ferranteapts.com
ferranteapts.com
ferranteapts.com
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