Winnipeg Construction X

[cllew]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

^I saw that. It's been sitting at the piling stage for a few months now. I assume they had foundation permits and nothing for the building itself.


Down the street at London. The big fire site. They ripped out all the old foundation and the site has been sitting like that for a while now. I think this might have been mentioned previously.

Are people living in the condos that were damaged? Seems empty in there. That is a long time and a lot of people to be put out.

On the London ave fire site, I think the delay is due to the insurance companies being involved. The fire site is one company and the buildings to the west and south would be the individual owners insurance companies.

Each one will hire restoration contractors at their own pace to do the work. They will also probably use the "shortage of skilled trades people" and building materials as a reason for slow progress on the building restoration(s) around the file location.

Coming back from my morning coffee, I saw that one house on Kimberly by the dog grooming place finally had their melted vinyl siding replaced as the old siding was piled in the front yard.

Also I noticed the contractor's site office has been removed for some time now so there probably will not be any construction resuming in the near future. I don't recall if it had suffered any external heat damage or not as it looked like one of the metal ATCO type site offices.

Also the onsite security guards have been gone for a while. I guess there is nothing of value to be scavenged from the remaining rubble by the street side pickers

[Glenn99]

Noticed the Capri Motel on Pembina is all boarded up and fenced off. Is it about to be demolished? Seems way overdue. They never removed/fixed up the units that burnt a couple of years ago.

[pegcityboy]

Capri Hotel site prime spot to keep the mini boom of Apartments/ Condos going on Pembina Hwy .

[cllew]

The construction companies must monitor this site.

Coming back from my morning coffee run Ragowski Demo was on site at the Kimberly Ave fire site with 2 tracked excavators and a few dump trucks. Two blocks west on Kimberly there were a few workers walking around on the stalled multi family job site behind the church.

[bomberjet]

They're on to you cllew lol

Ya I know the condos are separate. Was just wondering if they have people living in the units that were fine, while the wait to fix up that east side. The whole site has a fence around it, but is opened at the parking lots. Or if the whole complex was sitting empty. They have done ventilation work and such on the damaged areas, assuming to make it livable.

[xubiqtss]

So it seems to me that Winnipeg has been in an apartment building frenzy for the last several years, but I was hoping that someone might enlighten me as to why?

I just can't for the life of me seem to make the numbers work in my head.
Winnipeg has a historically high rental vacancy rate, who are all these rentals for?

To make the situation even more bizarre, the average rate of these units is over $1500! Putting them out of reach of a large chunk of the population (hence the high vacancy rate I suppose)

So honestly, how do these numbers work for anyone?
Are we heading for a crash in which there are a glut of units and no one to rent?

[bomberjet]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manit...ipeg-1.6018660

Here's a news article from 2021. Typically Winnipeg has a pretty low/normal vacancy rate, except for the expensive units.

[OTA in Winnipeg]

Prior to COVID immigration numbers were high and the expectation was that all these people need a place to live. Or at least that's what I assumed the building boom was all about.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by xubiqtss

So it seems to me that Winnipeg has been in an apartment building frenzy for the last several years, but I was hoping that someone might enlighten me as to why?

I just can't for the life of me seem to make the numbers work in my head.
Winnipeg has a historically high rental vacancy rate, who are all these rentals for?

To make the situation even more bizarre, the average rate of these units is over $1500! Putting them out of reach of a large chunk of the population (hence the high vacancy rate I suppose)

So honestly, how do these numbers work for anyone?
Are we heading for a crash in which there are a glut of units and no one to rent?

new construction leases out almost immediately everywhere except downtown.

Overall vacancy rate for purpose built rentals was 3.8% in 2020 and was up about two percent in 2021 largely because of the pandemic. For condominium rentals vacancy is only about 2%. Winnipeg has not had historically high vacancy rates. Generally its about the national average or slightly above.

[xubiqtss]

Originally Posted by trueviking

new construction leases out almost immediately everywhere except downtown.

Overall vacancy rate for purpose built rentals was 3.8% in 2020 and was up about two percent in 2021 largely because of the pandemic. For condominium rentals vacancy is only about 2%. Winnipeg has not had historically high vacancy rates. Generally its about the national average or slightly above.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bu...576248102.html

This is the information I'm referring to. When I say historical I mean that we are at a 25-year high, which may not be historical but is significant nonetheless considering the amount of building going on, much of which happens to be downtown.

You seem to write off the question as unimportant but I think it's worth asking if this is a healthy or sustainable housing market. For example, who is going to fill 300 Main?

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by xubiqtss

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/bu...576248102.html

This is the information I'm referring to. When I say historical I mean that we are at a 25-year high, which may not be historical but is significant nonetheless considering the amount of building going on, much of which happens to be downtown.

You seem to write off the question as unimportant but I think it's worth asking if this is a healthy or sustainable housing market. For example, who is going to fill 300 Main?

As of the 2021 census Winnipeg had 300k private dwelling units occupied with 15k vacant units for about a 4.76 vacancy rate which is a healthy ish number. 2-3% puts too much pressure on the existing housing stock. The problem is that those 315k units are utilized by 750,000 people which means that there are only 420 units per 1,000 residents. This is lower then Canada’s average of 424 units per 1000 residents which is btw the lowest in the G7. If we want to get to the G7 average of 480 units per 1,000 residents then Winnipeg itself would need to build 45k units without any population growth. We as a city have been terribly under building housing supply and this can be seen with the house prices gaining >10% yearly valuation.

At this point anything built will be a step in the right direction simply because we have to build a lot more housing anyway to meet up with population demand.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by trueviking

new construction leases out almost immediately everywhere except downtown.

...everywhere except downtown? Really?

I believe The Medical Arts redevelopment is leased out, the new Winter Club tower leased out very quickly and I think True North Square has done well. I have heard that the old MB Housing tower on Smith is doing well and isn't your building at West Broadway Commons leased?

It seems like the Condo's at Glasshouse and 290 Assiniboine are the sites having issues. That seems more to do with the fact they are Condo's and not rentals.

I would expect 300 Main to do well.

[zalf]

Originally Posted by Biff

...everywhere except downtown? Really?

I believe The Medical Arts redevelopment is leased out, the new Winter Club tower leased out very quickly. I have heard that the old MB Housing tower on Smith is doing well and isn't your building at West Broadway Commons leased?

It seems like the Condo's at Glasshouse and 290 Assiniboine are the sites having issues. That seems more to do with the fact they are Condo's and not rentals.

I would expect 300 Main to do well.

Anecdata, but to add to this, I recently did some tours of 185 Smith and 225 Carlton, and both were full or nearly full. The realtor for 225 Carlton said the 1-beds have wait list like 15 people deep.

[Winnipegger]

Re: Rental market

Too many anecdotes, not enough data in this forum. The CMHC publishes annual stats on vacancy rates at various geographies for many Canadian cities. Their latest report (October 2021) puts the overall vacancy rate downtown (Centennial) at 7.8%. It's higher than most other parts of the city, but not by a significant margin.



CMHC Data Source

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Biff

...everywhere except downtown? Really?

I believe The Medical Arts redevelopment is leased out, the new Winter Club tower leased out very quickly and I think True North Square has done well. I have heard that the old MB Housing tower on Smith is doing well and isn't your building at West Broadway Commons leased?

It seems like the Condo's at Glasshouse and 290 Assiniboine are the sites having issues. That seems more to do with the fact they are Condo's and not rentals.

I would expect 300 Main to do well.

Right....but it does take more time in the downtown and the vacancy rates are higher....true north took a long time. 300 assiniboine took a long time. West Broadway is taking a long time.....i'm not saying it's anything to be concerned about but its not generally immediate in the downtown the way it is elsewhere in the city.

I think the places that have the biggest problem have big units. Price point is everything.

This is why I am nervous about 300 main, not because there's not enough people to fill our multi-family housing stock, but because it is has a questionable suite mix and design. The suites arent just large, they are weird. Like 800-900 square foot one bedroom suites are the majority....hopefully I'm wrong but that is a totally new market.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by xubiqtss

You seem to write off the question as unimportant but I think it's worth asking if this is a healthy or sustainable housing market. For example, who is going to fill 300 Main?

Once we get back to normal population growth I think it will be fine. The last two years have been an anomaly. We build 4-5,000 new homes per year of all kinds (70% multi-family) and grow by 10-12,000 people each year.

[esquire]

Anyone heard anything about the MMF/Bank of Montreal project? I went by it earlier today and it looks forlorn, almost abandoned. But I have no idea what's going on inside, not sure if there is construction or something happening in there.

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger

Re: Rental market

Too many anecdotes, not enough data in this forum. The CMHC publishes annual stats on vacancy rates at various geographies for many Canadian cities. Their latest report (October 2021) puts the overall vacancy rate downtown (Centennial) at 7.8%. It's higher than most other parts of the city, but not by a significant margin.

[IMG][/IMG]

CMHC Data Source

Better yet, you can drill down to the Downtown area only (Centennial contains large areas of the core that we would not consider downtown - Spence, West Alexander).

If you look at the full report under Primary Rental Market, you can see the vacancy rate has risen Downtown since 2018 (3.4% to 7.8%). During the same time period, 690 new apartment units were added downtown.

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-p...120/6/Downtown

[NewIreland]

Originally Posted by esquire

Anyone heard anything about the MMF/Bank of Montreal project? I went by it earlier today and it looks forlorn, almost abandoned. But I have no idea what's going on inside, not sure if there is construction or something happening in there.

Just another abandoned project, like the Pantages Theatre, Marketlands, Keewatin building, Railside etc etc... It's pathetic.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by NewIreland

Just another abandoned project, like the Pantages Theatre, Marketlands, Keewatin building, Railside etc etc... It's pathetic.

Project cancellations or delays seem to be pretty common everywhere:

https://www.enr.com/articles/50527-a...to-coronavirus

https://canada.constructconnect.com/...udget-and-late

https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/sched...inish-late.php

Guess the entire planet is "pathetic" by your definition.