Originally Posted by 2oh1
Before I even begin, I want to make it clear that:
I want greater density.
I want more housing.
I want more mass transit.
I want more of all of the things that come with creating an active, vibrant, urban neighborhood. Give me more, More, MORE!
That being said, this whole "more density" thing grows tiresome, because it's so vague, and though I hate to say it since your heart is in the right place, it's so misguided.
"More density" lacks any context other than saying you want a bigger number on a sheet of paper that denotes Portland's population density, as if that's a cure-all for the rapidly increasing cost of housing. It's not. In fact, greater density has the opposite effect.
Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd.
Nothing increases competition like competition.
As more people move into a neighborhood - thus increasing density - they also bring an increased demand for goods and services. That means increasing opportunities for retail to profit. That means more bars and pubs, restaurants and shops, not to mention groceries, libraries, pharmacies, mass transit... you name it. And as all of that stuff comes to a neighborhood, the neighborhood becomes even more of a great place to live, which means more people will want to live there, which means increasing competition for apartments, which means increasing opportunities for landlords to jack up rent knowing they'll get whatever they ask for.
...our shortage of what, precisely? Be specific. Are you talking about housing in general? Or are you talking about AFFORDABLE housing? I ask because there is no shortage of housing. We don't have people living in hotels waiting for anything available to open up. We do have a shortage of affordable housing, but increasing density (which is a generational task! Come on now!) is NOT going to bring down the price of rent.
If we manage to build enough high rise apartments and condos in Portland to drastically increase our city's density over a period of a decade or even twenty years, the "culture in our city" as we know it would be lost. Portland wouldn't be the Portland we recognize anymore. The city's culture has already dramatically changed over the past two decades. I'm not complaining, mind you. I'm just stating a fact. Using density as a rallying cry for preserving the "culture in our city" is silly. Radical change brings... wait for it ...radical change.
Yes, we have a shortage of affordable housing, but increasing density also increases prices because increased density makes neighborhoods more attractive as more residents create opportunities for more goods and services. That's where the basic supply and demand law falls apart in practice. Look at inner SE for an easy example. Ten years ago, you could rent a dump in inner SE for under $500 a month. I knew people who were doing it. But the area was so sketchy that most people didn't want to live there. A friend of mine was dating a guy who lived just across the river in SE, and it was a point of embarrassment for her. They always went back to her place, in NW. Never to his. But look at inner SE now... and wait until 5 years from now. As all of the new development brings new high rises and new retail, new shops and new bars... just wait and see what the effect on rental prices is going to be, even at the older places. It's going to jump, Jump, JUMP. That neighborhood is going to pop. Hello, increased density. And hello skyrocketing rent.
I'm not saying increased density = higher rent. I'm saying increased neighborhood desirability = higher rent. It works like this:
Increased density = higher population in a given neighborhood.
Higher population = more opportunities for shops and bars.
More shops and bars = a hipper, more vibrant neighborhood.
Hipper neighborhood = more people wanting to live there.
More people wanting to live there = higher rent, because landlords can charge more.
Sadly, the benefits that come with increased density, such as better mass transit, more restaurants, pubs, bars, shops, new parks, increased vitality and fun... all of those things make a neighborhood more desirable, which makes more people want to live in the neighborhood, which drives up competition for apartments, which drives up the price of rent. I've seen rents rise by 1/3 in the last five years downtown. A lot of it is being driven by the resurgence of the west end, and Target, and the Apple Store, and everything else that's going on downtown.
If you're thinking that increased density will bring down housing prices... it won't. And if you think increasing density is something we have to fight for... it's not. Thanks to our urban growth boundary (which I am thankful for!), increasing density is a foregone conclusion (and I'm glad, because I support it fiercely). Yeah, places like Lake Oswego and Clackamas may fight it, but they'll lose those battles over time.
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