Another year has come and gone. The Rio Grande Project remains in discussion in niche circles, and we are still waiting on the SL Tribune to run the story they wrote on the plan (its a real thing, I swear!). But even though nothing concrete has happened yet, I still feel optimistic about all the positive responses we've got from some of the well-connected people we've met - and some who have reached out to us. I think there are plenty of reasons to stay positive.
Changing the subject, I made a series of posts this time last year (
link) containing my predictions/wish list items for TRAX in the next 20 years. Over the past year, I've changed some of my thinking, so I've updated my maps.
The premise is that all modes of transport in urban areas will be completely autonomous within 20 years, or at least working their way towards full autonomy. I've been fortunate to have access to Tesla's FSD Beta software since October (I claim bragging rights of receiving a safety score of 100, for anyone who knows what that means), and I am really excited to see this tech spread to the general public soon. It is amazing how normal it feels after a while for the car to drive itself through unprotected left hand turns and everything else. The main thing that usually causes me to 'intervene' in the car's self-driving is when it is either being a jerk to other cars (not letting them merge) or when other cars are being a jerk to it (not letting it merge). So I wouldn't quite trust it yet to drive itself to my office unattended to pick me up from work, but I am pretty confident that it will be capable of such a feat sometime next year. After that, its only a matter of time before we see a bunch of Tesla robotaxis doing everything from carpooling commuters to running errands. Parking lots will become increasingly unnecessary and stigmatized as the crime-ridden, waste-of-space, subsidized sprawl mechanisms they actually are, and they will gradually be replaced with infill and then completely outlawed in all but industrial/rural areas. Private vehicle ownership will plummet, with people owning cars not for utility but as a hobby (I imagine places like the cottonwood canyons will remain a popular place for people to drive their antique vehicles, like Dimple Dell is a place for people to practice the archaic practice of horse riding).
To get around, people will have a 'mobility app' to arrange transportation services for them, based on a bunch of slider settings, such as cost, desire for privacy, need for a faster trip, acceptable walking distance, etc. A common method of getting to work will be to have a robo carpool pick up passengers in a given neighborhood and take them to the nearest rail transit or bus station. (Regular buses will be discontinued, all bus lines will be BRT, with dedicated infrastructure matching the service level of rail.) Autonomous transit vehicles will come a minimum of every 5 minutes, meaning that waiting for a train will be comparable to waiting for an elevator, especially on busy routes with interlining.
Transit vehicles will not run on fixed colored or numbered routes like they do today. If the transit cars form a 'train' (more accurately a platoon, since there won't be physical couplers between cars) then it can be assumed that each car of the 'train' will go to a different destination. Riders will need to pick their cars carefully, and electronic signs above each doorway will tell passengers where each car is headed. The transit app on a traveler's phone/glasses/screen will tell their users which car to go to, and even which door to use. Payment will be handled by the app; paper tickets and fare machines will be a relic of the past.
Clever passengers - or let's be honest, transit nerds like me - will be able figure out where each car is headed based on the numbers it displays on its headboard. I've listed some key stations on the TRAX network and given them codes as an example of what I mean:
So a car headed north on the West Jordan Line might display 51-14-12-38, meaning it will continue north to Murray Central, then go directly to the downtown subway via the express line (more on that later), then emerge from the downtown subway to climb up to the University of Utah via 4th south, then take the new line through the University Research Park to the Hogel Zoo. For riders who don't need/care about this information, the relevant information will be interpreted by the transit app on their device. And because the routing of individual cars will be done in real-time, the use of a transit app will be required in order to 'hail' a transit vehicle traveling to a rider's destination. This isn't PRT - transfers will still be a regular occurrence for a lot of passengers, unless those passengers are headed downtown.
Downtown will be the obvious hub of the network, with the tracks through the two downtown loops being shared by many vehicles converging from the many branch lines. Trains on the surface will still have to share the space with pedestrians, cyclists, and the few robotaxis that can afford the congestion charges, so train speeds on the surface will be either similar to what they are today or perhaps even slower. This would be a major problem, since even today TRAX speeds through downtown are even slower than the S-Line streetcar, which is designed to go slow and is often mocked for it. So sometime in the next 20 years, SLC leaders will need to follow the lead of Portland and Dallas in creating a downtown subway section for TRAX, and join the leads of Seattle, Boston, Los Angeles, and Newark in operating a light rail system on the surface in the suburbs, but with a subway section downtown.
I believe the logical route for such a subway would begin with the S-curve south of 900 South, so that the subway tunnel could travel straight up 400 West all the way to 200 South. From there, it would follow 200 South all the way to 200 East, where it would curve south again to 400 South, where it would connect into the University Line at the Library station (which would need to be moved from 200 East to 300 East to handle the connection). A spur on 300 East between 200 South and North Temple would connect to the Airport and future Davis County lines as well, meaning all 3 routes into downtown would have access to the grade-separated subway section.
Here is the map of downtown, including the subway in black. The sand blue lines represent the shared tracks used by multiple lines:
EDIT: The station name 'Grand Avenues' needs to be switched to 'Grand Boulevards'. Also, if any text is too small, click the link in the signature line for 'Album of Transit Maps and Designs' for the full res image file.
The total length of the TRAX subway would be just over 2 miles, which is a reasonable length for our population. Costs can be cut further by building with the cut-and-cover method. Assuming the Rio Grande Plan gets built, the 1-mile trench to the old depot would be great practice for the future TRAX subway. 3 Stations would be built for the subway: 700 South 400 West, with a direct connection to the TRAX station I have named "Industry" in my fantasy map; 300 South and 400 West, with a direct connection to the pedestrian plaza in front of the Rio Grande Depot; and Gallivan Plaza, with entrances on both sides of Main Street. The 2 stations on 400 West would be pretty bare-bones, with stairs/escalators/elevators connecting the island platforms directly to the surface. The station at Gallivan Plaza would more akin to a full metro station, with an underground mezzanine level to connect all the entrances to the platforms, and to connect the station directly to nearby buildings and developments.
As for the rest of the TRAX system, my predictions haven't changed much in a year. Here's the updated map:
New lines include the east-west commuter rail, the Davis County line, and the Cottonwood line from Fashion Place West (renamed on the map) up the median of I-215 to the Cottonwood Canyon transit center (built at the gravel pits), where riders can transfer to buses up to the ski resorts (or a Stadler cog train... or even a gondola if you insist...). There is also an additional branch of the University Line that goes to the Research Park and Hogel Zoo, which I included mainly because of the recent talk of a transit study for such a connection. Details of these routes are located in the Google Map linked in my signature line. (Be sure to turn on the applicable layers.)
Most impactful, however, would be the Murray-Ballpark Express tracks, which would be a major upgrade of those 6 miles from traditional LRT to something more like a light metro. Between Murray Central and Ballpark, I am envisioning a 4-track mainline, with the western two tracks used for express service (no platforms, no stops) and the eastern two tracks used as local service, making twice as many stops as TRAX currently does. This entire route would be built on an elevated embankment, and all railroad crossings would be replaced by bridges. This sort of upgrade may sound preposterous, but the numbers bear out that such a thing will be needed sooner than later. There are 15 at-grade crossings between Murray Central and Ballpark stations, shared between 2-3 TRAX lines now and more in the future, each running a 15-minute headway. This adds up to over 5,000 grade-crossing activations per day, meaning 5,000 opportunities for accidents and collisions, and 5,000 for-sure instances of backed-up traffic. Many of the roads that are crossed are major east-west arteries, and 3 of the roads have freeway interchanges, which generate a lot of traffic and which suffer greatly if there are blockages at the grade crossings. Furthermore, very little infill development will happen around active grade crossings. The constant noise of the bells and gates, the constant peril of getting hit by a train, and the continued sound of all the idling cars and passing trains is just too much. Worse still are streets like 17th South, which feature all the listed drawbacks but lack the benefit of having a station - who would want to live there? If the area around the main TRAX 'trunk' between downtown and Murray is ever going to get infill development, it will need more stations, and it will need those stations to be elevated. All of this points to a near-future need to upgrade the main 'trunk' between Murray and Downtown in one big project, rather than multiple smaller projects spread out over decades. By closing down the trunk and completely replacing it with an elevated 4-track main, TRAX will get the capacity upgrade necessary for it to remain relevant in the autonomous future, and the light-industrial area around the TRAX line can finally blossom as a dense, urban/residential corridor. (Compare Chicago's north shore line, and Portland's MAX system between Lloyd Center and Gateway stations.)
So, those are my thoughts/predictions/wishlist items for the future of our transit system. I'm sure things will evolve and change over time, but I really wish our planners would start work on some 'big-picture' proposals like this one. We need a comprehensive Master Transit Plan, because without one we won't build a cohesive, functional system - but rather we will be slapping band-aids haphazardly on the most popular problems, and hoping they mesh somewhat coherently. I hope this post inspires discussion on what our future holds and what we should be building for.
Happy new year, and a prosperous 2022 to all!
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