Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by bingun

Election results -

https://www3.gnb.ca/elections/results-re...e35-4e2a-43d0-81f3-bfbe27ac2664/ar/1018/

Most of the votes are in, but a few more are still to come. I am shocked at how many votes Blaine Harris is getting in Saint John

Dude got nearly as many votes as Barry and didn’t take part in a single forum of mayoral candidates… and maybe that helped him get that many votes lol

I feel bad for Adam Smith, he could have been a decent councillor, and was one of the more reasonable candidates city wide… he even lost the PC West Side candidacy to the TikTok superstar. Maybe the only solution for Adam Smith to get elected on the West Side is to join the LPC and run against John Williamson in the next election.

Seriously though, I don’t know what people were thinking in Ward 1 voting for all these other fringe candidates, when we should all know council elections are incredibly split races, and knew the Save Lorneville group was a significant voting bloc. I don’t think many people expected Sherri Colwell-Mcavour to get in, but she did, thanks to a very split vote and a very active campaign (that started well before the official election campaign) I’m willing to give our new councilors a fair chance before I start passing judgement. Maybe Mcavour will be a great new voice on council…

I’m hoping the Save Lorneville group can transition to actually trying to get Voltagrid and Beacon AI to invest in the Lorneville community and Saint John with recreation infrastructure and community centres, etc. Maybe Voltagrid could foot the bill to build an outdoor rink for the Lorneville community, with a far better chiller than the one that was put in the rink Uptown. There’s all kinds of projects that these companies could invest in for the Lorneville community and elsewhere in Saint John, if actually given a chance.

The community should try and set a precedent now, as Voltagrid and Beacon AI will be just two of many new companies to invest in ventures within the Spruce Lake Industrial Park.

If it ever comes the time for deepwater container port expansion or a company wants to open up a solar panel factory at Spruce Lake Industrial Park, I hope the Save Lorneville group can embrace the progress and development that such opportunities would bring to Saint John.

Overall, Saint John City council is looking a lot less “common” and a lot more focussed on development. There’s some seriously qualified people that have joined this council like Eric Savoie and Paul Dempsey, who have connections that past members of recent councils simply haven’t had. Savoie has extensive connections across both the provincial and federal governments, while Dempsey has high level military and diplomatic experience. Having people like this on council will bode well for the city partnering with higher levels of government for funding on future projects. Savoie focussed on housing more than any other candidate, and I’m excited to see him push for big changes and big projects here in Saint John. As Mark Carney has said over and over… it’s time to build big, build bold, and build now!

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

While Im not from Saint John and am not in the loop of its municpal poltiics the election of Sherri Colwell-Mcavour will really empower the save Lorenville people and their quest to stop anything and everything from being built in Lorenville. She will be a very vocal critic on council of this new data center. A very dye in the wool NIMBY. Not what Saint John needs ATM.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

While Im not from Saint John and am not in the loop of its municpal poltiics the election of Sherri Colwell-Mcavour will really empower the save Lorenville people and their quest to stop anything and everything from being built in Lorenville. She will be a very vocal critic on council of this new data center. A very dye in the wool NIMBY. Not what Saint John needs ATM.

Thankfully she is just but one vote on council.

[sailor734]

There is resentment of SJ city government on the Westside that is generational.....dating back to the forced amalgamation in 1967. The industrial park/data centre/Voltagrid issue is just another in a long list of perceived "wrongs". I think Harris' 4600 votes and Colwell-McCavour's win reflect that.

[adamuptownsj]

The Lorneville Luddite was only on 27.5% of ballots. Really fractured field and there was a substantial undervote. All the candidates below only add up to 176.7%, so about one in eight voters only picked one candidate or fewer: mayor-only voters?
Norton* 38.7%
Colwell-McCavour 27.5%
Smith 27.1%
Vautour 25.6%
B. Armstrong 20.0%
P. Armstrong 14.8%
Shi 12.4%
Lee 10.6%

Ward 2 had even more of a dropoff, with just under one in four voters only picking one candidate or fewer.
MacKenzie* 46.9%
Wyatt 44.5%
Elazab 21.6%
Wilson 16.4%
Carpenter 16.2%
Walton 11.0%

Ward 3 had less of an undervote, just about 10% little worse than ward 1.
Savoie 41.5%
Moore 37.1%
Darling* 34.6%
Miller 26.4%
Watson 18.3%
Wilson 9.4%

Ward 4 has our first candidate on a majority of ballots cast. Undervote a bit worse than Ward 3 but substantially better than Ward 2.
Dempsey 50.5%
Merrithew 44.3%
Comeau 41.1%
Radwan 27.9%*

At-Large had an undervote just a hair worse than Ward 4.
Sullivan 39.7%*
Hooley 34.8%
Hayes 31.1%
Steele 15.8%
Irish 14.1%
Connell 9.9%
Goodwin 8.9%
Lajtha 7.5%

Mayor of course was the big draw, with only 1.5% undervote.
Reardon 39.6%*
Ogden 32.8%
Harris 26.0%

[bingun]

There seems to be news slowly filtering through on property tax changes, although I have seen nothing yet regarding industrial taxes. What I read below today from CTV raised my eyebrow. It feels like they are politicizing the tax rate to shift blame to the municipalities. Call me skeptical, but I can see them setting it artificially low to absolve themselves of blame.

N.B. government to set property taxes for municipalities in effort to lower bills

https://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/article/...municipalities-in-effort-to-lower-bills/

Officials say the government would publish a tax rate for each municipality based on several metrics such as the consumer price index.

They say the new approach ties property taxes to a municipality’s service needs, as opposed to property values.

If local councils decide on a different rate from the number issued by the province, they would be required to explain their decision on the property tax bills sent to residents.

Local Government Minister Aaron Kennedy says the bill will put pressure on municipalities to keep tax increases lower.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by bingun

There seems to be news slowly filtering through on property tax changes, although I have seen nothing yet regarding industrial taxes. What I read below today from CTV raised my eyebrow. It feels like they are politicizing the tax rate to shift blame to the municipalities. Call me skeptical, but I can see them setting it artificially low to absolve themselves of blame.

N.B. government to set property taxes for municipalities in effort to lower bills

https://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/article/...municipalities-in-effort-to-lower-bills/

That's 100% it. When paired with the lack of provincial desire to create an independent assessing body, it sounds very dubious. Are they talking about setting a province-wide rate? Because that would be nuts.

Province sets like 1.4% rate > city says it needs more and appeals > city gets rate it wants > province blames city for higher rate

This will cause serious problems for cities that have meaningfully lowered rates and have plans to lower them further while balancing budgets. Does taking 0.1% off your rate YoY really do you any favours if the province (which is responsible for assessments and policy around freezes etc) is announcing it should have been 0.2%?

Anyway, the Holt government seems to have plenty of political capital to burn and plenty of time to do it. I'm just surprised they're driving a wedge between themselves and a slew of agreeable larger municipalities for a dubious possible future PR win. I thought their property tax push would industry-rates-, double-tax-, and/or vacant-serviced-lot-related. All of these would go over positively with municipalities.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by bingun

There seems to be news slowly filtering through on property tax changes, although I have seen nothing yet regarding industrial taxes. What I read below today from CTV raised my eyebrow. It feels like they are politicizing the tax rate to shift blame to the municipalities. Call me skeptical, but I can see them setting it artificially low to absolve themselves of blame.

N.B. government to set property taxes for municipalities in effort to lower bills

https://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/article/...municipalities-in-effort-to-lower-bills/

In the provincial press release they stated that, "The proposed reform also includes the potential for a new heavy industry revenue transfer grant. This would aim to improve fairness by ensuring communities with heavy industries receive more direct financial support to help them cover the additional costs of servicing these properties. A proposal for this grant is expected in 2027."

Intentionally vague and still kicking the can down the road, but at least they are somewhat committed to some kind of transfer.

[bingun]

I should have waited until later in the day. The TJ has a lot more detail in their coverage -

I think the way this is presented implies that the greedy municipalities have been pocketing all the extra revenue from assessment increases and that the provincial government is not to blame, which is not entirely true. It seems we are starting to move past the pandemic and the post-pandemic property hysteria anyway, so once things even out over the next few years, I don't think people will see huge assessment changes.

The industrial change highlighted below is at least something Saint John can utilize. I am interested in whether they increase their multiplier beyond 1.7 in the coming years. Perhaps they could stagger this over several years to avoid a sudden shift for industrial businesses.

Property tax reforms aim to stabilize unpredictable yearly hikes

https://tj.news/new-brunswick/property-tax-reforms-aim-to-stabilize-unpredictable-yearly-hikes

Arguably the most important change is providing taxpayers and municipal politicians a better idea of what tax rates should be, based on the services provided.

As it stands, the provincial government tells municipalities each year how much their tax base is worth, a figure that includes the value of rising property assessments and new properties. Municipal politicians then set their local tax rate based on the big tax base figure to come up with how much tax revenues they will take in.

Critics, such as former Service New Brunswick tax assessor Jerry Iwanus, said the old system was a backward process that didn’t force local politicians to start with a reasonable base budget and then justify real tax increases.
For instance, a local council could shave off several cents on a tax rate – seemingly a tax cut – but still reap far more tax revenues thanks to higher property assessments.

From now on, the province will publish a publicly available list of the previous year’s local tax rates, calculate a reasonable inflation amount, and come up with a new rate that it deems appropriate.

The inflation amount will be based on the consumer price index, population growth, the increase in New Brunswick salaries and wages, and a non-residential building cost index, all equally weighted.

If the politicians who run local governments still want to spend more money than the published rate, they’ll have to justify the bigger tax rate increase, spelled out on people’s tax bills.

A good example, Kennedy said, was the Town of Sussex, which recently decided it would have to charge people more to put in expensive flood prevention measures. All of this will be explained on future tax bills, he said, so that everyone is on the same page.

One of the association’s big demands was to de-couple rates by allowing municipalities to charge homeowners, smaller businesses and big industry different tax rates altogether.

It argues heavy industry is an extra cost burden for municipalities, requiring more services. They also worry that rising property assessments for homes – far higher than rising assessments for industrial properties – shifts the tax burden onto long-suffering homeowners.

Kennedy said the province was reluctant to give municipalities this extra power, fearing they would tax heavy industry out of business and drive away investment that creates jobs and wealth.

Instead, the province has increased the multiplier rate at which heavy industry can be taxed. Before municipalities could charge between 1.4 times and 1.7 times the local rate. Going forward, they can choose anywhere between one and two times the rate, giving local politicians more flexibility.

On top of that, the province has promised to provide a new heavy industry revenue transfer grant to 28 municipalities that have factories, to take full effect in 2028. Right now, the province provides about $24 million for this kind of transfer, and presumably it would increase, though no final decisions have been made.

[MonctonRad]

This cryptic entry is posted on CCD Canada:

NB - PROVINCE OF NEW BRUNSWICK
HANWHA DEFENCE CANADA
NEW DEFENSE CONTRACTOR MANUFACTURING FACILITY

Any idea where in the province they are talking about???

AI has come up with this:

Hanwha Ocean is vying for Canada's multibillion-dollar submarine contract and is actively negotiating major industrial investments in New Brunswick. The province is a top-shortlisted location for a domestic torpedo manufacturing plant and an Arctic & Defense Innovation Centre, supported by ongoing strategic partnerships with local universities and businesses

.Key New Brunswick Developments:

- Submarine and Torpedo Manufacturing: Hanwha has positioned New Brunswick on its shortlist of provinces to host a domestic torpedo manufacturing plant and localized naval assembly operations.
- Academic Partnerships: The University of New Brunswick (UNB) signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Hanwha Ocean to collaborate on applied marine defense technologies, digital simulations, and AI-enabled naval systems.
- Infrastructure & Innovation: Hanwha’s pitch includes an Arctic & Defense Innovation Centre (HADIC). Furthermore, the company has expressed interest in New Brunswick’s Belledune capabilities to facilitate underwater acoustic testing for submarines and torpedoes.
- Expanded Military Hardware Offer: To sweeten its bid, Hanwha has offered to construct domestically-manufactured artillery vehicles—such as mobile howitzers and rocket systems—within Canada, contingent on winning the Royal Canadian Navy contract.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This cryptic entry is posted on CCD Canada:



Any idea where in the province they are talking about???

AI has come up with this:

I would assume Belledune given the separate explosives plant proposal, seems perhaps logical to have the nearby.

Otherwise, maybe Lorneville in Saint John since there is lots of space and access to its own barge terminal? Adding torpedos to data centres - feels like a great combination that I'm sure the community can get behind

[bingun]

I think Garry might be running for Mayor in 2030...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-council-swearing-in-2026-9.7220096

John MacKenzie, the Ward 2 councillor, will again fill the position but just for the first two years of council’s term. Gary Sullivan, re-elected as a councillor-at-large, will be in the role for the final two years.

“I just thought I would split it up, for a change,” Reardon said to reporters after the meeting.

Changing deputy mayors is part of “succession planning,” she said, pointing to Moncton, where deputy mayors are selected every year, as an example.

“It's part of giving some of the councillors some better and different experience.”

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

This cryptic entry is posted on CCD Canada:



Any idea where in the province they are talking about???

AI has come up with this:

Is this contingent on the RCN picking the Korean subs or separate from their sub bid?

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

David Coon stepping down as leader of the Greens, staying on as MLA
https://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/new-brun...own-as-new-brunswick-green-party-leader/

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by bingun

I think Garry might be running for Mayor in 2030...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-council-swearing-in-2026-9.7220096

I would assume this partially has to do with the role the Deputy Mayor has on the Regional Service Commission's board. Based on the rotation of their executive, John (who has experience on the FRSC Board) will be Chair of the commission this year, which gives Saint John an important role. Once he rotates off the Executive of the RSC, then Gary will take on the Deputy Mayor role.

Not saying that is the sole reason, but it strategically would be a good move for the City.

[bingun]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

I would assume this partially has to do with the role the Deputy Mayor has on the Regional Service Commission's board. Based on the rotation of their executive, John (who has experience on the FRSC Board) will be Chair of the commission this year, which gives Saint John an important role. Once he rotates off the Executive of the RSC, then Gary will take on the Deputy Mayor role.

Not saying that is the sole reason, but it strategically would be a good move for the City.

That could be it too, I am just speculating. In TJ's coverage of this, John is quoted as saying that 2 more years are enough for him. I interpreted it as he's happy to slow down towards the end of his term, and he will likely be done in 2030. Also, Garry is retiring as a teacher, I believe, in 1 year, so his free time will open up considerably. While I would like to see several strong candidates for mayor in the next election, I would be happy to see Garry among them.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by bingun

That could be it too, I am just speculating. In TJ's coverage of this, John is quoted as saying that 2 more years are enough for him. I interpreted it as he's happy to slow down towards the end of his term, and he will likely be done in 2030. Also, Garry is retiring as a teacher, I believe, in 1 year, so his free time will open up considerably. While I would like to see several strong candidates for mayor in the next election, I would be happy to see Garry among them.

Yes, I was told he had kicked the idea of running this year around but decided no based both on his retirement schedule and the fact Donna decided to reoffer.
I agree we could do (and have done) worse than Gary as mayor.