People need to look at the components of growth for the CMA. The figure for 2023 had permanent immigration at ~20,000 which was a bit high, but in-line with recent historical rates. The outlier was non-permanent residents - the CMA added, on net, over 18,000 non-permanent residents in 2023. Historically, this has averaged closer to 1,500 per year.
The non-permanent resident category has come under fire at the federal level this past year, and the latest national stats showed they made up 6.5% of total population and recently the feds, in response to the national outcry, pledged to bring this down to 5% over the next three years. It's a bit vague, but suffice to say I don't think we will continue to see such massive net increases in non PRs over the next few years. We can expect ~10,000 to 20,000 for 2024 perhaps, but looking forward I'd wager we will see a net decrease over the medium term as we return to historical averages to meet the Federal government targets.
A ~33,000 person increase for the CMA will not be the new normal, it's simply not sustainable. We'll probably see a 20,000 to 30,000 increase for 2024 and then strong moderation to ~15,000 people on net for the years that follow. I'd estimate the CMA's population will exceed 1 million in 2031.
People need to keep in mind that we grow from migration, and migrants have a significant attrition rate after their first to fifth years. In Manitoba, only ~70% of international migrants remain in province after 5 years. So the more people we bring in during a given year, the bigger the outflow is in subsequent years. We will continue to see upticks in interprovincial out-migration (despite the Premiere's best efforts) as the balloon in immigration last year works its way through time and those immigrants leave for other provinces.
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