Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine
The gap in birth rates is still very high. In 2022 there was a TFR of 1.80 in France vs only 1.45 in Germany.
The takeover has already happened for the population under 20. In 2022 there were 15.43 million people younger than 20 y/o in Germany, vs 16.08 million in France.
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TFR in Germany is above 1.5 since 2015. I remember back in 2011 or so, in the SSC you projected France to surpass Germany population wise in the early 2030’s. Ten years from now. And you were clear that nothing would change that. Well, now we’re sure that this overcome won’t take place during our lifetimes.
Even though demographic curves are much more stable than say, economy, they can be changed. Germany is the most perfect example: massive immigration flows coupled with an increasing TFR when the rest of the world was going down.
And there are examples in other direction: Spain went from growing 15% on the 2000’s to zero in the 2010’s. Immigration flows ended abruptly and their TFR, already very low, fell even further.