Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
I mean, the population data they're citing has to be way off. The residential vacancy rate in Manhattan is lower now than pre-Covid. Apartment rents are at record highs. The parking situation has worsened. So how could there be 200k fewer households than pre-Covid? Aliens?
200k missing households would imply that Manhattan is some Mad Max-level dystopia, with tumbleweeds. You would have half-abandoned neighborhoods. There were 740k households in Manhattan in 2020, so now there are fewer than 540k, yet schools have the same population, retail rents have risen and residential vacancies have dropped? Huh?
Manhattan has a giant population of second-home owners, so I could see, peak-Covid, a number of prime neighborhoods temporarily half-empty, but that ended by Fall 2021, at the latest. The really rich neighborhoods are completely "normal" now. The Hamptons are back to a seasonal community.
|
Those
delightful population estimates are valid for July 1, 2021.
Next month sometime we will get the state estimates for July 1, 2022. The District of Columbia will give us a direct check on urban rebound, and the New York state change should be largely from NYC itself, so another, more indirect data point.