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Originally Posted by Crawford
The growth will tail off. Africa is rapidly secularizing, birth control is finally near-universal, outmigration to Europe, the Gulf States and the Americas is booming.
Also, megacities just start to hit a wall, even first world megacities with good infrastructure. LA is now barely growing. Mexico City went from 2 million to 20 million in 30 years and then basically stopped. Jakarta, which has terrible infrastructure, has slowed down to minimal growth.
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But once again, primary cities are growing faster or almost as fast as their countries: London, Moscow, Tokyo, Toronto (and New York converging).
If Nigeria grows, Lagos will do it and probably faster, as there are plenty of rural folks there.
P.S. Mexico City growth was spectacular, but it's not like that: they had reached 3 million by 1950 and 18 million by 2000. São Paulo has actually grew considerably faster, from 2 million in 1950 to 18 million in 2000. Mexico City, Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, as national capitals, started to grow from a much higher base.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
Since 1970, India has tripled in population and China has almost tripled. Nigeria doubling in 30 years doesn't seem that extraordinary.
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That's the point: Nigeria reaching 400 million by 2050 is a given even if their TFR reaches South Korean levels in the next 10 years (which is not going to happen). Their population is very young and there are millions and millions of women on child bearing age to keep population growing even if they have few children.
Almost 7 million babies are born yearly in Nigeria as opposed to 3.6 million in the US or 2.7 million in Brazil. Within 20 years all those babies will have grown and will start to have their own babies.