Quote:
Originally Posted by CanSpice
Right, so the May market highlights are out. misher said that halfway through May sales of condos were increasing from 22/day for the first week to 37/day for the second week. This means that in the first two weeks of May there were 413 sales (22/day * 7 + 37/day * 7).
REBGV said there were 653 sales in May, so that means that if misher was right then the last two weeks of May there were 240 sales or roughly 17 a day (assuming May is made up of 4 weeks, which it isn't). (note that I flippantly said that "you could just as easily say sales have dropped to 17/day" and it turns out I wasn't far from the truth)
May averaged 21 sales per day, lower than both the 22/day and 37/day misher stated.
And rofina, I'd like to see your take on this given you said your observations matched with what misher was saying. It looks like your observations didn't really match with what the actual numbers are, unless there was a sudden and sustained 50% drop in sales for the last half of May. |
I casually follow a few realtors that post daily stats for my own interest in seeing what direction the market is taking.
My take on it? I didn't look closely enough. I did see an increase in sales, and not much for listings, which is really as far as I got.
Big picture - this year is a wash. I'm more interested in spring 2021, I think that will give a much better perspective, as the dust would have settled on some of the larger questions we have surround health of the economy and job market.
I think 2020 was on track to be very surprisingly bullish, the increases in sales and prices YoY was starting to look like a banner year for Van RE, coming out of a multi year correction.
Factors were obviously leading the market in that direction, if those factors remain or not in a post Covid world remains to be seen.
Its a really interesting time - despite the pandemic its not too difficult to make a very bullish case and a very bearish case;
Bear - Economy, job loss, pandemic. Need I say more?
Bull - Unprecedented liquidity. Zero rates. Flight to safety. Low CAD.
Put it this way - its about as likely that Van RE turn bullish right now as it is for the DOW to be trading at over 26,000, and yet here we are.