Posted Sep 24, 2020, 4:30 PM
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The New Republic
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: United Provinces of America
Posts: 10,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade
My thoughts exactly when I was analyzing Brazilian data.
While numbers present this 10-year delay, growth components are quite different: Brazil has a neutral migration rate while the US is positive, but not so much lately.
In Brazil, growth is basically births minus deaths and while births peaked in the mid-1980's at 4 million/year, it now stands at 2.8 million, down from 3.3 million in 2000 and 3 million in 2010. Deaths, on the other hand, are always on a rising as the population ages. By 2030, I guess Brazil will be at 2.5-2.8 million while deaths will rise from 1.3 million in 2019 to around 1.8 million by 2030, for an annual increase below 1 million/year by the late 2020's.
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Yes, it could very well unfold as you're saying. The US population could peak far sooner than people expect due to net migration dropping dramatically. Maybe they'll hit 340-345 million then flat line or decline. Brazil's population may peak about 10 years later and at around 235-240 million.
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