Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade
In 2019, there were 3.745 million births and 2.855 million deaths in the US. Considering births going down to 3.65-3.70 million and an excess of 250k deaths, meaning 3.1 million deaths overall. Immigration will probably fall to close to zero, but even then we'd have a 600k increase for 2020.
That's why I think negative growth is extremely unlike for this year. Negative natural growth, however, will happen during this decade.
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The U.S. is on track for +300K deaths from COVID by end of year. There is no way to know the unconfirmed death total, but we know it's not zero and the deaths probably began before we knew what was happening. There has also been an uptick in deaths not related to COVID. So, overall, there will be an uptick in deaths that will likely be substantially above 2019 death totals. That's pretty much a given.
OTOH, not only is immigration falling to zero, but people are leaving the U.S. to go to their home countries. There's no way to know how many, but I know of several people that either have already, or will return to their home countries by the end of the year. I think this trend is more biased to people from rich countries, but it is definitely a trend.