Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
Right, but the difference is that U.S. population decline is a choice. We have closed borders, zero immigration, and cratered birth rates, currently. The first two factors will change shortly, while the third likely won't. The U.S. can largely dictate its relative level of population growth via inmigration.
If the U.S. decided to add, say 30 million immigrants a year, it could do so. So if there's future population decline, it's a conscious choice. Brazil would probably need to increase birth rates to grow population. There are probably prospects for increased near-term inmigration as long as there are poorer neighboring states (and Venezuela is obviously a disaster), but this is not a long-term demographic fix.
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But then things are what they are. Americans (and Brazilians for that matter) can also "choose" to have 1.9 or 2.1 children instead of the current 1.7 where they stand.
Brazilian population is still almost 10 years younger than American, despite all the massive influx the US gets, so Brazilian structure is still more favorable. If the country stabilizes around 1.7 (for instance, TFR has stopped falling in South since the mid-2000's), Brazil can postpone its decline to the 2040's, buying some time to adapt to a world of low population growth.
And then, if Brazil keeps its doors wide open, to pursue an immigration policy, it can expect to atract good numbers from the fast growing West Africa.