[Steely Dan]

alright, here is the census 2020 NH white alone % for all 56 1M+ MSAs:

1. pittsburgh: 82.2%
2. cincinnati: 75.9%
3. grand rapids: 75.7%
4. buffalo: 73.0%
5. rochester: 72.9%
6. providence: 71.6%
7. louisville: 71.5%
8. minneapolis: 71.2%
9. st. louis: 70.3%
10. columbus: 69.1%
    
    
11. portland: 68.7%
12. kansas city: 68.5%
13. nashville: 68.3%
14. salt lake city: 68.3%
15. indianapolis: 68.2%
16. cleveland: 67.4%
17. boston: 66.6%
18. milwaukee: 64.1%
19. hartford: 63.9%
20. detroit: 63.6%
    
    
21. denver: 61.2%
22. tampa: 59.5%
23. birmingham: 59.4%
24. jacksonville: 59.4%
25. oklahoma city: 59.3%
26. philadelphia: 59.1%
27. tulsa: 59.0%
28. raleigh: 58.3%
29. seattle: 57.9%
30. charlotte: 57.8%
    
    
31. richmond: 55.3%
32. phoenix: 53.6%
33. baltimore: 52.7%
34. virginia beach: 52.3%
35. tucson: 51.5%
36. chicago: 50.2%
37. austin: 49.6%
38. new orleans: 48.3%
39. sacramento: 48.3%
40. atlanta: 43.7%
    
    
41. orlando: 43.5%
42. new york: 43.3%
43. san diego: 43.1%
44. dallas: 42.8%
45. washington DC: 42.3%
46. memphis: 41.3%
47. las vegas: 39.4%
48. san francisco: 36.2%
49. houston: 33.7%
50. san antonio: 32.8%
    
    
51. riverside: 29.4%
52. miami: 29.1%
53. san jose: 28.8%
54. los angeles: 28.5%
55. fresno: 27.0%
56. honolulu: 17.3%

so my spidey sense was right, chicagoland was the closest major MSA to being on the bubble of the inflection point in census 2020.